装备保障链中的牛鞭效应弱化措施评价方法研究

利用D-S证据理论和层次分析法相结合的方法,在分析了装备保障链中牛鞭效应的主要成因和控制措施的基础上,建立了牛鞭效应的层次模型,提出了牛鞭效应弱化措施的评价方法。最后通过实例说明这种方法在牛鞭效应弱化措施评价中的应用。     

一种改进的证据冲突衡量因子

为解决证据融合时证据间冲突衡量不准确问题,提出了一种新的证据冲突衡量方法。对当前冲突衡量方法国内外研究现状进行总结,结合典型算例分析,指出了当前方法存在的主要问题。基于前人研究成果,提出了一种改进冲突因子用于衡量证据间冲突,主要基于修正证据距离与合取冲突,对两者采用加性组合。通过一般类型算例与特殊类型算例对所提方法进行验证,结果表明改进的冲突衡量因子能够准确衡量证据间冲突,并具有普适性。     

审计证据、审计风险及不规则关系研究\n——基于一个舞弊博弈模型的分析

在某些情形下,审计风险并非始终随着审计证据的引入而降低.管理层和审计师的舞弊博弈模型分析结果表明:重大错报风险与审计证据的不规则关系出现于管理层有强烈的舞弊激励、管理层的舞弊行为被揭露所遭受的惩罚不严厉以及审计师收集证据的信息含量较低或具有误导性等情形;在舞弊博弈中,检查风险始终随着审计证据的引入而增大的基本动因在于管理层和审计师博弈过程中战略的互相影响;审计师法律责任比率通过影响重大错报风险的大小来影响审计风险与审计证据之间的变动关系;在特定条件下职业谨慎对于重大错报风险、审计风险与审计证据之间的不规则关系具有"放大效应".     

Patient value: its nature,measurement, and role in real world evidence studies and outcomes-based reimbursement

The assessment of “patient value” is fundamental to clinical trials, real world evidence studies, and outcomes-based reimbursement schemes. Measures of health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) are widely used in health research. Such measures are effective in determining the presence or absence of symptoms and functional ability. However, HRQoL measures were not intended, nor designed, to determine the value to patients of alternative health states. Functions have no intrinsic value—they are a means to fulfil human needs. However, needs can be met in a variety of ways, for example by adopting different functions or by the provision of social services. It is possible to analyze all functions in terms of the needs they satisfy. A needs model has been applied in health research since the 1990s. It is concerned with the extent to which human needs are fulfilled in the presence of disease and its treatment. It is argued that this is the major concern of the patient. Needs-based measures are patient-centric and produce a valid unidimensional index of outcome. Consequently, they provide a direct means of measuring patient value. This approach provides the possibility of evaluating health services in terms of the value they provide to consumers and payers. It also has a role to play in real-world evidence studies and outcomes-based reimbursement. It is recommended that greater attention is given in future to the development of patient-reported outcome measures that provide direct assessments of patient value.     

The Reinhart-Rogoff controversy as an instance of the ‘emerging contrary result’ phenomenon

The article proposes a new approach to the Reinhart–Rogoff affair. In contrast to the two explanations of the controversy put forward in existing literature, I argue that Growth in a Time of Debt and its criticism published by Herndon, Ash and Pollin (Does high public debt constantly stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff) exemplify the ‘emerging contrary result’ phenomenon (emerging recalcitrant result, ERR). Three arguments support this hypothesis. First, the infamous spreadsheet error did not cause the findings to differ. On the contrary, the results differed mostly due to employing alternative averaging schemes. Second, the cliometric techniques employed by both research teams are justified to a similar degree. Third, the pattern in the cliometric literature focused on the 90%-threshold hypothesis suggests that the Reinhart–Rogoff controversy exemplifies an ERR phenomenon caused by submission/publication bias.     

PPPs: THE PASSAGE OF TIME PERMITS A SOBER REFLECTION

This paper argues that evaluations of public–private partnerships thus far point to contradictory results regarding their effectiveness and value-for-money. Despite continuing political popularity, greater care is needed to strengthen future evaluations and conduct such assessments away from the policy cheerleaders.     

中国共产党“重要战略机遇期”的解析

重要战略机遇期是十六大以来中国共产党对国际国内形势做出的一个科学判断。其后十年中国的发展历程印证了这一伟大判断的正确性和科学性。当前,伴随着世界金融危机影响不断加深,威胁和平与发展的不确定因素增多,国内也面临诸多问题,这给中国的未来发展造成了巨大压力。然而,中国共产党再次抓住问题的关键,准确研判国际国内大局,认为国际方面和平与发展的时代主题没有变,国内经济形势相对稳定,社会主义制度的优越性日益显现。在此基础上,十八大报告指出,中国仍处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期。     

基于条件证据更新方法的短时软/硬情报融合

介绍了软/硬情报融合新方法,分析了证据理论(DST)应用于软/硬情报融合的灵活性。 在此基础上,以Fagin-Halpern（FH） DS条件原理为依据,提出了一种面向情报融合中多源证 据的条件更新方法,避免了扩展识别框架,并明确了该方法的参数选取标准。另外,基于时间 表对融合过程进行短时划分,以提高融合的精确性。通过融合实例对所提方法进行了分析说 明。     

企业应对反倾销的会计信息证据效力保障机制理论框架研究

首先阐述了企业应对反倾销会计信息证据效力保障机制的研究意义,明确了该机制研究的理论基础是由一个整合理论框架,以及严谨的概念基础和良好的创新语境等组成。然后,对国内外研究现状进行了动态分析,把国内学者相关研究的新进展和成效,国外经典的研究方法体系和关注企业策略性行为对反倾销的影响,战略性"反倾销管理"理念,作为设计我国企业应对反倾销会计信息证据效力保障机制的借鉴,从企业战略层面及相应的制度配置与协调上,构建了与我国企业应对反倾销相适应的会计信息证据效力保障机制。     

内部控制对反倾销企业税负影响的实证分析

从理论上分析了内部控制对反倾销企业税负的影响,并在涉诉反倾销企业问卷调查的基础上,又对内部控制与反倾销企业采信度和税负水平进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,企业控制环境中的反倾销知识和人才、控制活动要素中的职务控制和预算控制以及风险评估要素中的目标设立和风险评估与企业反倾销调查举证的采信度存在正相关关系;控制活动的职务分离控制,风险评估要素中的目标设立和风险评估要素均与企业终裁中被征反倾销税负水平高低呈负相关关系。