A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence

This paper proposes a pair-wise approach to testing for output convergence that considers all N(N-1)/2$N(N-1)/2$ possible pairs of log per-capita output gaps across N economies. A general probabilistic definition of output convergence is also proposed, which suggests that all such output gap pairs must be stationary with a constant mean. The approach is compatible with individual output series having unit roots, or other non-stationary common components and does not involve the choice of a reference country in computation of output gaps. It is also applicable when N is large relative to T (the time dimension of the panel). After providing some encouraging Monte Carlo evidence on the small sample properties of the pair-wise test, the test is applied to output series in the Penn World Tables over 1950–2000. Overall, the results do not support output convergence, and suggest that the findings of convergence clubs in the literature might be spurious. However, significant evidence of growth convergence is found, a result which is reasonably robust to the choice of the sample period and country groupings. Non-convergence of log per-capita outputs combined with growth convergence suggests that while common technological progress seems to have been diffusing reasonably widely across economies, there are nevertheless important country-specific factors that render output gaps highly persistent, such that we cannot be sure that the probability for the output gaps to lie within a fixed range will be non-zero.     

Learning and equilibrium as useful approximations: Accuracy of prediction on randomly selected constant sum games

There is a good deal of miscommunication among experimenters and theorists about how to evaluate a theory that can be rejected by sufficient data, but may nevertheless be a useful approximation. A standard experimental design reports whether a general theory can be rejected on an informative test case. This paper, in contrast, reports an experiment designed to meaningfully pose the question: “how good an approximation does a theory provide on average.” It focuses on a class of randomly selected games, and estimates how many pairs of experimental subjects would have to be observed playing a previously unexamined game before the mean of the experimental observations would provide a better prediction than the theory about the behavior of a new pair of subjects playing this game. We call this quantity the model’s equivalent number of observations, and explore its properties. This research was supported by a grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation and the USA–Israel Binational Science Foundation. We are very grateful for helpful conversations with David Budescu, Jerry Busemeyer, Gary Chamberlain, Paul Feigin, Dave Krantz, Jack Porter, Tom Wallsten, Wolfgang Viechtbauer, and Richard Zeckhauser.     

中小型面粉加工企业的生产技术管理

通过对国内中小型面粉加工企业的生产技术管理存在的问题以及解决问题的方法的阐述,进行问题分析。通过对原粮的接收管理、对生产过程的技术管理、对面粉后处理等方面的技术管理来解决中小型面粉加工企业存在的生产技术管理问题。     

新时期抗战剧对90后大学生的爱国主义教育作用

新时期抗战剧的剧情内容是反映中国人民反帝反封建剥削、争取民族独立和民族解放,与以前的抗战剧单一灌输、沉闷艺术形式相比,它以＂革命＂和＂爱情＂为主导,更为贴近＂90＂后大学生情感生活。在网络信息时代,抗战题材影视作品以一种独特的网络传播方式风靡于90后大学生,这些作品更具有具体性、写实性,更容易赢得90后大学生喜爱,并且能够潜移默化对90后大学生进行爱国主义教育。     

集体林区灾后恢复重建配套政策调研报告

安徽省是我国重要的集体林区。安徽省林业受灾情况主要呈现以下特点:灾害程度深,受灾面积大,林业重点工程受灾严重,潜在影响、隐性损失将逐渐显现。此次灾害对林权制度改革造成严重影响,具体表现在:直接造成林农经济损失,挫伤了林农生产的积极性,对林权抵押信贷业务造成不利影响。抗灾救灾及灾后重建工作具体措施建议:确保救灾政策到位,坚定推进林权制度改革步伐,建立政策性森林保险制度,呼吁林业应享有与农业同等待遇政策。     

Human behavior and the use of experiments to understand the agricultural,resource, and environmental challenges of the XXI century

The use of laboratory¹ experiments in economics, and their later deployment in the field as a tool for exploring how actual decision‐makers respond to information, incentives or institutions has brought a revolution to how we model economic systems, and design policies for them. This new century will bring challenges for the study of agriculture, natural resources and the environment, where it will be necessary to have a better understanding of human behavior, in a world where climate on the one hand, and land, labor and food markets are ever more unstable. This article reviews the intellectual history of a rich dialogue between theory and experiments with a particular focus on its relevance for agricultural, resource and environmental issues. Special attention will be given to the case of common‐pool resources where this dialogue between models, field work and laboratory experiments continues to provide a rich cross‐fertilization for the advance in the understanding of the economic systems that governs these resources. I will close by arguing that agricultural, environmental and resource economists will have to take part of this behavioral revolution by embracing experiments in their teaching, their research and their policy design.