加强知识产权保护对产业集群构建“创新网络”的积极作用

以产业集群构建"创新网络"为视角,通过建立演化博弈模型论证了加强知识产权保护对产业集群内部构建"创新网络"具有积极作用,并结合产业集群生命周期理论论述了产业集群在其发展的任一阶段都要重视对知识产权的保护。基于以上结论阐述了对我国产业集群建设的启示及政策建议。     

自动引导车路径追踪控制器控制效果的MATLAB仿真

介绍了以MATLAB6.5为平台,对不同起始误差条件下自动引导车(AGV)的路径追踪控制器的控制效果仿真。仿真结果证明经过一段时间由路径追踪控制器的速度和角速度的补偿可以消除3个追踪误差量,使自动引导车具有准确跟随路径的能力。     

Analyst Earnings Forecasts for Publicly Traded Insurance Companies

Several trends in the insurance and financial services industry, including demutualizationconsolidation, and deregulation, have attracted increasing attention from investors and financial analysts. This paper investigates the accuracy of the earnings forecasts of financial analysts for insurance companies. Our empirical results indicate that analyst forecasts outperform random walk time-series forecasts. Furthermore, we find that both disagreement over earnings forecasts among analysts and the relative forecasting error in the mean forecasts is smaller for life insurers than for property-casualty insurers, whereas the relative errors for forecasts for multiple-line insurers are in between the two. Forecasting error is a negative function of firm size and the number of analysts who are following a company, and is a positive function of the disagreement among analysts.Analyst forecasts have a timing advantage over the random walk model. Our results also suggest that the fair value reporting requirement (SFAS 115), which has been in effect since 1994, has enhanced the accuracy of analyst forecasts. The SFAS 115 has improved the superiority of analyst forecasts over the random walk forecasts for life insurers, but not for property-casualty insurers, and there is a weak improvement for multiple-line insurers. JEL Classification: G15     

Inside the “Black Box” of Sell‐Side Financial Analysts

Our objective is to penetrate the “black box” of sell‐side financial analysts by providing new insights into the inputs analysts use and the incentives they face. We survey 365 analysts and conduct 18 follow‐up interviews covering a wide range of topics, including the inputs to analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, the value of their industry knowledge, the determinants of their compensation, the career benefits of Institutional Investor All‐Star status, and the factors they consider indicative of high‐quality earnings. One important finding is that private communication with management is a more useful input to analysts’ earnings forecasts and stock recommendations than their own primary research, recent earnings performance, and recent 10‐K and 10‐Q reports. Another notable finding is that issuing earnings forecasts and stock recommendations that are well below the consensus often leads to an increase in analysts’ credibility with their investing clients. We conduct cross‐sectional analyses that highlight the impact of analyst and brokerage characteristics on analysts’ inputs and incentives. Our findings are relevant to investors, managers, analysts, and academic researchers.     

追随原型—特质匹配对员工追随与退缩行为的影响机制研究

对于员工个体来讲,如果能够符合领导者心目中的追随原型,与领导者达成追随原型—特质匹配,则更愿意积极追随;但是,若领导者因得强将而过度用之,令其角色超载、不堪重负、身心受累,员工可能转而选择工作退缩。基于资源保存理论,探讨在追随原型-特质匹配的情况下,员工何时会积极追随,何时会工作退缩。运用结构方程模型对35个团队中的256组上下级配对数据进行统计分析,得出结论：追随原型—特质匹配能够激发员工的和谐工作激情进而促其积极追随;也可能使员工陷入角色超载转而选择工作退缩。上述结论深化了追随领域的相关研究,同时为组织中的上下级匹配模型及员工在追随过程中的行为选择提供了实践指导。     

对当前信贷资产证券化相关制度的反思--基于美国信贷资产证券化的经验教训

本文基于对美国资产证券化发展历程和经验教训的回顾,对中国当前推动信贷资产证券化过程中的监管制度设计进行反思,也对利率市场化加速推进期间资产证券化产品的盈利空间及其可持续性提出质疑。基于此,本文从放松管制、完善法律基础、推动无风险收益率下移、扩大投资者范围和取消贷存比限制等五个方面就如何推动信贷资产证券化持续快速发展提出意见和建议。     

政治关联、分析师跟踪与中小企业投资效率——-以制造业为例

选取我国制造业中小板上市公司２００７—２０１１年数据,首先利用数据包络分析对企业投资效率进行定量评价。进而运用Ｔｏｂｉｔ模型考察企业政治关联、分析师跟踪及其交互作用对企业投资效率的影响。研究表明：自２００７年以来,我国中小企业投资效率呈现波动性变动,但总体而言逐步提高。国有中小企业政治关联与投资效率显著负相关。而非国有中小企业政治关联与投资效率正相关但并不显著。作为一种外部治理手段,不论在国有企业还是非国有企业,分析师跟踪均能显著提高企业的投资效率。政治关联与分析师跟踪的交互作用可以提高企业投资效率。国有企业中,二者对投资效率的影响呈现一种替代关系,而非国有企业中,呈现一种互补关系。     

浅谈大学生小群体对于大学生从众行为的影响

＂从众＂是一种比较普遍的社会心理和行为现象,人们普遍具有从众心理。当代大学生在所处群体影响下的从众行为表现在学习、生活和消费等各个方面。小群体是从众行为产生的重要原因,研究小群体现象对当代大学生从众行为的影响,对于优化群体结构,利用大学生从众行为的积极影响,防止其消极影响,具有极其重要的作用。     

Market reaction to second-hand news: inside the attention-grabbing hypothesis

This article investigates whether the market reaction to second-hand information is due to price pressure or information dissemination. We use the perspective of attention grabbing to analyse the market reaction to the dissemination of analysts’ recommendations published in print media. This perspective is able to explain the asymmetric market reaction to ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ advice, which is difficult to rationalize within the price pressure hypothesis. We base our empirical analysis on the content of a weekly column in the most important Italian financial newspaper, which publishes past information and analysts’ recommendations on listed companies. Our findings show asymmetric price and volume reactions on the publication day. Contrary to previous evidence, we document a positive relationship between the number of analysts quoted in the column and the price (volume) increase associated with positive recommendations. Because the weekly columns seem to simply attract investors’ attention, with no additional new information, observing a reaction positively related to the column’s salience (proxied by the number of quoted analysts) is natural. In addition, we find that the market reaction is higher when the order size is lower, i.e., when individual investors’ trades constitute a higher fraction of the total trading activity in the market.     

贵州省2010-2011年疑似预防接种异常反应监测分析

目的分析贵州省疑似预防接种异常反应（AEFI）的发生特征,评价AEFI监测情况。方法通过全国AEFI监测系统,收集贵州省报告的2010-2011年AEFI个案数据,采用描述性方法进行流行病学分析。结果 2010-2011年全国AEFI监测系统共收到贵州省报告AEFI个案213例,其中≤1岁占58.22%,男女性别比为1.15：1,主要集中在2010年9月份。一般反应占52.11%;异常反应占32.39%,以过敏反应为主。AEFI发生例数较多的疫苗主要是含麻疹成分疫苗（MCV）和百日咳-白喉-破伤风联合疫苗（DTP）,占报告总数的54.93%。全省67个县（市、区）有AEFI数据报告,县覆盖率为71.28%,48h内及时报告率为85.00%,48h内及时调查率为95.00%。结论贵州省AEFI监测的完整性和敏感性有待提高,各市（州）差异较大。AEFI常发生在低龄儿童为监测重点。尽快制订预防接种异常反应补偿办法,按全国统一要求开展AEFI监测,加强监测工作培训和督导,将是推动贵州省AEFI监测工作系统、深入开展的有效措施。