扩大居民消费需求的财税政策取向

在国际金融危机引发中国经济波动、出口萎缩的情况下,促进消费、扩大内需,拉动经济增长,已经成为当前经济工作的首要任务。通过对我国居民消费需求现状、存在问题及现行财税体制中不利于消费需求增长的因素分析,提出了通过调整财税政策,扶持中小企业发展;增加居民可支配收入;增加财政支出中保障民生的支出;推进居民消费升级等政策建议。     

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

基于投资消费模型的购房者行为分析

在生命周期投资消费模型中首次考虑了投资者二套房投资。利用动态规划原理,在特殊的两期情况下进一步假设投资者的投资需求具有层次性,给出投资者首次购房决策的一种简便方法。另外,还对近年来住宅市场快速增长的内在动力进行了探讨。     

河北省农村经济增长的消费因素影响及对策研究

当社会经济发展的主要矛盾从供给约束向需求约束转变，经济增长的主要支撑因素从供给扩张向需求拉动转变时，扩大需求成为必要。农村居民的消费水平是影响农村经济增长的重要因素，本文在介绍河北省农村居民的消费现状基础上，分析制约农村居民消费水平的因素，追而提出发展河北省农村消费市场，促进农村经济增长的对策。     

The sufficiency strategy: Would rich-world frugality lower environmental impact?

One alleged weapon against unsustainable environmental impact is for the wealthy to consume less. This sufficiency strategy is to complement the efficiency strategy of lowering ratios of resource inputs to economic outputs; the former would reduce the affluence factor in I = PAT, the latter the technology factor. That the latter strategy suffers from a consumption rebound is widely recognized. This paper identifies a similar rebound when the affluence factor is autonomously lowered: The lower initial demand lowers prices, which in turn stimulates new demand by others. The strategy moreover addresses only the rich, raising questions of its theoretical maximum efficacy. Its proponents usually conflate frugality with the North-South dichotomy and intragenerational with intergenerational equity. Moreover, there are difficulties with the supporting arguments that frugality is good for one’s own sake as well as for the environment, and that the rich should ‘lead the way’ to living more lightly. Personal behaviour change is furthermore not a substitute for international political efforts. Finally, since all changes in right-side factors of the I = PAT equation change other right-side factors, such indirect attacks on impact should be abandoned in favor of supply and emissions quotas.     

基于LMDI的我国能耗增长总量分解

本文运用迪氏对数指标分解法（LMDI）对我国6个行业在1985～2005年的能耗增长进行研究,将总能耗增长量分解为3个部分：生产效应,结构效应和强度效应。研究结果表明,我国过去20多年来能耗消费增长的主要动因是生产规模的扩大和经济结构的调整,而我国能耗强度的降低则大大地延缓了能耗总量的增长。本文最后根据研究结果提出了相关的政策建议。     

基于广义虚拟经济视角下的中国居民消费与房价关系研究

根据居民消费理论,一般而言财富增加会促进消费,国外大量经验研究已证实了房价对消费存在正向的作用。但对于中国而言,房价上涨(财富增加)似乎并没有带动消费的增加?这是什么原因呢?我们认为房价上涨不仅有财富效应,也有与之相对应的替代效应(或称为挤出效应),这是因为短期内房价上涨使得人们购房支出增加而挤出日常消费。另一方面,基于广义虚拟经济视角的消费者心理分析也能更好地解释这一现象。本文利用1999-2010年我国的省际面板数据进行估计后发现,在我国,房价上涨会对消费的变动产生显著的负影响。对此,本文认为,这主要是由于替代效应造成的,同时中国以家庭为观念的社会结构也使得人们宁愿挤出日常消费也要承受"房奴"的生活。     

休闲产业:国内研究述评

休闲产业研究在我国尚处于起步阶段。目前国内对休闲产业的研究主要集中于休闲产业的概念和范围、休闲产业的地位和作用、休闲消费、影响我国休闲产业发展的主要障碍和对策等几个方面,今后研究的重点应转向建立休闲产业统计体系、揭示休闲产业和消费结构的变化规律、检验休闲产业的就业功能及其与建设和谐社会的关系上来,在研究方法上应注重从定性分析转向定量分析。     

Does income inequality increase marginal propensity to consume?

This article empirically investigates the effects of income inequality on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), using panel data of 22 OECD countries over the period 1994–2015. We find that MPC increases dramatically as income inequality increases. In subsample analyses, the MPC of a high inequality group is more than twice that of a low inequality group.