Semi-quantitative risk assessment of groundwater resources for emergency water supply

The submitted paper proposes the possible use of integrated semi-quantitative risk assessment of groundwater resources. There are risks resulting from both natural and anthropogenic hazard sources. Activation of these types of hazard sources can cause damage to, or destruction of, particular hydrogeological structures and technological equipment of selected groundwater resources suitable for the emergency drinking water supply of the population. The process of risk assessment is based on the described register of hazards, including semi-quantitative assessment of the frequency with which the assessed sources of hazards are activated, the register of sensitivity together with the semi-quantitative sensitivity assessment of selected threatened elements of the assessed water resource and the determination of their criticality. The semi-quantitative risk assessment should become one of the important criteria for classifying groundwater resources which have been proposed for emergency water supply. The classification carried out on the basis of the above-mentioned principle can contribute to faster selection and effective use of groundwater resources, as well as to the enhancement of emergency and crisis planning systems when the public system is either damaged or destroyed.     

风险管理程序运用研究——以检察机关执法办案风险评估机制的构建为视角

建立检察机关执法办案风险评估机制是党中央、高检院对检察工作的新要求,也是检察机关加强和创新社会管理、化解社会矛盾的有益尝试,具有现实必要性和重大意义。从风险管理学的发展历程来看,其正逐步运用至各领域。检察机关在构建执法办案风险评估机制中引入风险管理理论,正是对该理论的发展运用,同时更将为该机制的科学、合理构建提供坚实的理论基础和制度参照。     

A two-stage stratified Warner’s randomized response model using optimal allocation

This paper applies Kim and Wardes (2004) stratified Warners randomized response model to Mangat and Singhs (1990) two-stage randomized response model. The proposed stratified randomized response model has an optimal allocation and a large gain in precision. Hence, the estimator based on the proposed method is more efficient than Kim and Wardes (2004) and Mangat and Singhs (1990) estimators under the conditions presented in both the case of completely truthful reporting and that of not completely truthful reporting by the respondents.     

关于煤矿作业人员安全心理测评指标体系的探讨

对人因失误进行分析并将煤矿人因失误典型进行分类,探讨人因失误原因,对煤矿特殊情况下的事故类型和人员心理进行分析,对煤矿作业人员进行访谈,根据访谈和调研结果,编制出和煤矿安全心理有关的45项指标,并发放心理素质问卷调查表。根据调查表统计分析,得出影响煤矿作业人员安全行为较大的18项指标,经过专家评议,最终确定了煤矿作业人员安全心理测评指标体系。     

不完全信息下的供应链风险评估方法研究

本文使用多属性决策方法进行供应链风险评估,在风险属性权重信息不完全的情况下,建立非线性规划模型求得各风险属性的权重值,并通过求与理想解之间的加权欧氏距离来评估风险值的大小,解决了评估专家由于知识、经验和偏好不完全相同而意见难以统一的困难,最后用一个例子说明了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology

Backcasting has been widely used for developing energy futures. This paper explores the potential for using industrial ecology to guide the development of energy futures within a backcasting framework. Building on the backcasting work of Robinson [1], a seven step method is presented to embed industrial ecology principles within the development and assessment of future scenarios and transition paths toward them. The approach is applied to the case of backcasting regional energy futures in the Latrobe Valley, near Melbourne, Australia. This region has substantial brown coal deposits which are currently mined and used in coal-fired power stations to generate electricity. Bounded by a sustainability vision for the region in a carbon-constrained world, regional industrial ecologies in 2050 were backcast around three themes: bio-industries and renewables (no coal usage); electricity from coal with carbon capture and storage (low to high coal usage); and coal to products such as hydrogen, ammonia, diesel, methanol, plastics and char (demonstrating medium to high overall coal use relative to current levels). Potential environmental, technological, socio-political and economic impacts of each scenario across various life cycle stages were characterised. Results offer a platform for regional policy development to underpin deliberation on a preferred future by the community, industry and other stakeholders. Industrial ecology principles were found to be useful in backcasting for creatively articulating alternative futures featuring industrial symbiosis. However, enabling the approach to guide implementation of sustainable transition pathways requires further development and would benefit from integration within the Strategic Sustainable Development framework of Robèrt et al. [2].     

The role of assessment centers in job satisfaction and organizational commitment: a case of the Korean government

While many studies have shown how assessment centers affect employees’ career success or job performance, these studies do not demonstrate how employees’ attitudes are affected by their perception of assessment centers. This study aims to investigate the influence of employees’ perception of assessment centers on their job satisfaction and organizational commitment, which are the key elements in predicting working behaviors, such as job performance, job involvement, and turnover intentions. To analyze the nature of the influence, 306 employees who had been evaluated by an assessment center in the Korean Rural Development Administration (KRDA) were surveyed. Regression analysis revealed that although there is no influence on their organizational commitment, employees with a positive perception of assessment centers experience higher levels of job satisfaction (p < .01). These results suggest that the positive perception of assessment centers affects the general feeling of organizational members about their work even though it does not affect their emotional attachment to the organization or dedication to organizational values. Thus, assessment centers can be used as a tool not only to select capable candidates but also to yield positive effects on organizational members’ job attitudes.     

中外高校思想政治教育评估的理论基础比较及启示

高校思想政治教育评估作为思想政治教育工作的重头戏,需要在继承传统的基础上,不断吸收一切合乎时代发展要求、适应人们思想实际的方法。积极主动的汲取各国先进的思想政治教育评估精华,结合自身特点,跟上社会的需求和发展,加快思想政治教育创新的步伐。     

项目经理选拔综合测评模型

项目经理在项目管理中处于主导地位。在项目启动前,选拔出适合于该项目的项目经理,对项目的成功运作非常重要,对项目经理的素质要求是综合性的。因此,建立项目经理选拔综合测评模型,使得对项目经理的选拔测评更加科学、客观、准确。     

The Load Model: an alternative to QALY

Background: QALYs are widely used in health economic evaluation, but remain controversial, largely because they do not reflect how many people behave in practice. This paper presents a new conceptual model (Load Model) and illustrates it in comparison with the QALY model.

Methods: Load is the average annual weight attributed to morbidity and mortality over a defined period, using weightings based on preference judgements. Morbidity Load is attributed to states of illness, according to their perceived severity. When people are in full health, Load is zero (no morbidity). Death is treated as an event with negative consequences, incurred in the year following death. Deaths may be weighted equally, with a fixed negative weight such as ?100, or differ according to the context of death. After death, Load is zero. In a worked example, we use the standard gamble method to obtain a weighting for an illness state, for both Load and QALY models. A judge is indifferent between certainty of 1.5 years’ illness followed by death, or a 50/50 chance of 1.5 years’ full health or 1-year illness, each followed by death. The weightings calculated are applied to a hypothetical life, 72 years in full health followed by 3 years with illness then death, using both models. Three other hypothetical outcomes are also compared.

Results: For an example life, the relative size of the morbidity component compared with the mortality component is much higher in the Load model than in the QALY model. When comparing alternative outcomes, there are also substantial differences between the two models.

Conclusions: In the Load model the weight of morbidity, relative to mortality, is very different from that in the QALY model. Given the role of the QALYs in economic evaluation, the implications of an alternative, which generates very different results, warrant further exploration.