How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Mexico?

This article empirically examines the importance of the credit channel of monetary policy in Mexico for the period 2004–2013. We estimate a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse the effects of a monetary policy shock on real output, and we also use a threshold VAR model to investigate asymmetric effects of contractionary and expansionary policies. The empirical results suggest that a contractionary monetary policy results in a fall in the supply of loans together with an increase in the spread between the lending and deposit rate. To the extent that some borrowers are dependent on bank loans for credit, the reduced supply of loans amplifies the effects of monetary policy on output associated with the traditional interest rate channel. Our results also suggest that the importance of the credit channel is larger for contractionary shocks than for expansionary shocks.     

The Reluctant Analyst

We estimate the dynamics of recommendations by financial analysts, uncovering the determinants of inertia in their recommendations. We provide overwhelming evidence that analysts revise recommendations reluctantly, introducing frictions to avoid frequent revisions. More generally, we characterize the sources underlying the infrequent revisions that analysts make. Publicly available data matter far less for explaining recommendation dynamics than do the recommendation frictions and the long‐lived information that analysts acquire but the econometrician does not observe. Estimates suggest that analysts structure recommendations strategically to generate a profitable order flow from retail traders. We provide extensive evidence that our model describes how investors believe analysts make recommendations, and that investors value private information revealed by analysts' recommendations.     

发展森林保险的政策研究

林业是国民经济的重要基础产业,也是为社会提供生态产品的重要公益事业,但是林业生产面临巨大的自然灾害风险。森林保险是重要的林业风险保障机制,但由于其准公共产品的性质和信息不对称等原因,森林保险在我国的发展历经曲折,严重滞后于林业发展对风险保障的巨大需求。通过对森林保险的经济学分析和对国外森林保险制度的研究和借鉴,本文认为建立政策性森林保险机制对于我国森林保险事业的发展具有重要的意义,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

保险市场逆向选择与顺向选择共存研究

保险市场存在着逆向选择。经典逆向选择模型认为,风险高的人会购买更多的保险,但大多数实证研究表明保险市场还存在顺向选择。本文认为,逆向选择和顺向选择虽然对立,但共存于保险市场,在此基础上构建保险市场均衡模型,并进行了仿真研究。     

Anonymity,Stealth Trading,and the Information Content of Broker Identity

This paper examines whether the identity of a broker involved in transactions contains information. Using a sample of transactions from the Australian Stock Exchange—where broker identity is transparent—we provide evidence that consecutive buyer‐/seller‐initiated transactions by the same broker have a relatively high permanent price impact. This implies that broker identity conveys information to market participants, and that markets in which broker identity is disclosed are likely to be more efficient. We also find that medium‐sized trades by the same broker convey greater information than large and small trades, which is consistent with stealth trading by informed investors.     

A High‐Frequency Investigation of the Interaction between Volatility and DAX Returns

One of the most noticeable stylised facts in finance is that stock index returns are negatively correlated with changes in volatility. The economic rationale for the effect is still controversial. The competing explanations have different implications for the origin of the relationship: Are volatility changes induced by index movements, or inversely, does volatility drive index returns? To differentiate between the alternative hypotheses, we analyse the lead‐lag relationship of option implied volatility and index return in Germany based on Granger causality tests and impulse‐response functions. Our dataset consists of all transactions in DAX options and futures over the time period from 1995 to 2005. Analyzing returns over 5‐minute intervals, we find that the relationship is return‐driven in the sense that index returns Granger cause volatility changes. This causal relationship is statistically and economically significant and can be clearly separated from the contemporaneous correlation. The largest part of the implied volatility response occurs immediately, but we also observe a smaller retarded reaction for up to one hour. A volatility feedback effect is not discernible. If it exists, the stock market appears to correctly anticipate its importance for index returns.     

非对称网络权力与产业网络的空间组织——以我国台湾地区流行音乐产业网络为例

本文探讨了产业网络中非对称网络权力的形成机理,构建了非对称网络权力与产业网络空间组织间相互关系的理论分析框架,并从我国台湾地区流行音乐产业网络案例的分析获得实践支撑。结论表明:在产业网络中企业因要素占有或支配能力差异,形成由技术权力区、渠道权力区和权力塌陷区构成的非对称网络权力,产业网络的组织层级与空间层级间呈现相互对应的海默关系,而企业空间组织行为的区位锚定效应进一步强化网络权力的非对称结构。     

Volatifity spillovers on precious metals markets and the G-7： The effects of the Asian crisis

This paper investigates the nature of volatility spillovers between stock returns and precious metals returns for the G-7 countries over the 1995-2006 period. We divide our sample into a number of sub periods, prior to, during and after the Asian crisis, with the objective to provide a wide analysis of the behaviour of these two markets taking into account the effects of the Asian crisis; We use EGARCH modelling, which takes into account whether bad news has the same impact on volatility as good news. The results show that there is no evidence of volatility persistence from stock returns to precious metals returns, but overall the results are significant in the other way around. In terms of volatility spillovers effects, the main findings are that there is evidence of volatility spill over running in a bidirectional way in almost all the cases. And finally, the results from asymmetric spillovers effects show that negative news has a stronger impact in these financial markets than positive news.     

电网短路电流的限制措施

针对短路电流增大给电网安全运行和管理带来的影响,从电网结构与变电站2个层面分析了短路电流的方法。电网结构方面的措施包括合理规划电网结构及电源接入方式、提高配电网电压等级等;变电站方面的措施包括将变压器分列运行、采用高阻抗设备及可控串联电抗器等。分析了这些方法的优缺点,描述各自在实际中的应用及今后的发展方向。并简要介绍了2种不对称短路电流的限制措施。     

拉力分散型预应力锚索在深基坑施工中的应用

介绍了拉力分散型锚索的构造受力特点,并结合工程实例,简述了该新型锚索在地铁不对称受力深基坑施工中的应用。