中国房地产财富的担保与非对称性效应研究

根据消费生命周期理论假说可知,在消费者远见和信贷市场完备条件下,只有预期外的冲击才会对消费产生影响,房地产财富不具有担保效应;从消费者行为金融理论可知,盈利和损失对消费者的影响是不对称的。随着我国房地产在国民经济中的作用日益显著,房地产财富效应日益凸现,为了分析我国房地产市场是否具有担保和非对称性效应,对我国房地产财富和消费进行经验研究。研究发现我国房地产财富对消费的影响不支持恒久生命周期假说,基于房地产财富的消费市场存在流动性约束及"近视"现象,房地产财富对消费具有较为显著的非对称效应和担保效应。     

基于信息不对称的信贷配给均衡模型研究

本文建立了竞争和信息不对称条件下,信贷市场的信贷配给均衡模型,模型表明在为不同的借款人提供由贷款利率和贷款额度组成的相同贷款合同的情况下,信贷市场存在稳定的单合同均衡,信贷市场的均衡在信贷配给点达到,因而从信息不对称和均衡的角度解释了信贷配给现象。     

市场一体化、非对称性贸易成本与制造业集聚*

国内市场一体化将会对中国制造业的空间分布造成何种影响？本文通过构建统一的理论分析框架验证了国内市场一体化影响制造业集聚的两种机制：其一是贸易成本总体水平的调节效应,其二是贸易成本非对称性的直接效应,而调节效应的方向则取决于模型理论范式选择。此外,本文基于中国区域间投入产出数据,系统地测算了中国地区间的非对称双边贸易成本,并基于测算结果进行回归分析。实证结果表明,在中国制造业发展初期,市场结构总体符合IRS MC范式设定,此时贸易成本的调节效应倾向于促进制造业在东部沿海区域集聚。伴随着制造业生产技术的成熟,制造业市场结构开始呈现CRS PC范式特征,此时市场一体化对制造业集聚的调节效应不再显著。     

中国城市房价泡沫区制特征及其非对称溢出效应研究

基于单位根右侧ADF泡沫检验方法（BSADF）对中国一、二、三线城市在2010-2016年期间的住宅价格泡沫程度进行动态监测,进而比较各线城市房价泡沫分布特征差异,最后采用马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型（MS-VAR）来分析一、二、三线城市住宅价格泡沫之间在不同区制下的交互溢出效应。研究结果表明：在整个时期内,一、二、三线城市住宅市场均出现多次周期性泡沫,但差异明显;一、二、三线城市房价泡沫程度依次降低。一线城市住宅价格泡沫会向二、三线城市传染,而二、三线城市住宅价格泡沫之间会相互传染。一、二、三线城市住宅价格泡沫均存在三种区制（负泡沫、潜伏、膨胀）状态,各线城市住宅价格泡沫之间存在区制依赖的非对称溢出效应。     

中国社会医疗保险中的道德风险及控制机制研究

近几年来,医疗费用的迅速增长是世界各国普遍出现的现象,控制医疗费用、进行医疗保险改革成为一道世界性难题。而造成医疗费用激增的一个重要因素是医疗领域的道德风险问题。道德风险源于个人的机会主义倾向,是最大限度增进自身效用时做出不利于他人的行为所引起的风险。文章详细分析了中国社会医疗保险领域中道德风险存在的条件以及影响,并在分析结论的基础上提出了相应的的规避措施与建议。     

论专业市场劣质商品交易的博弈分析

笔者将博弈分析引入专业市场劣质商品交易研究中,认为信息不对称条件下,专业市场商户存在提供劣质商品的利益前提,并提出以商品市场经营公司为基础构建专业市场利益约束机制,解决商户与买主之间的信息不对称,进而规范专业市场商户的交易行为。     

供应链中甄别契约设计与信息共享激励

针对供应链中上下游企业的委托-代理问题,委托人可以设计出某种甄别契约以区分不同类型的代理人在不同的市场需求状况下的努力程度。在完全信息的条件下,委托人采取固定佣金方案及承担全部风险为最优选择。在信息不完全的条件下,若代理人为风险规避者则委托人只承担部分销售风险但需付出额外的风险补偿成本,若代理人为风险中性者则委托人不需付出额外的风险补偿成本。     

Positive and Negative Word of Mouth about Restaurants: Exploring the Asymmetric Impact of the Performance of Attributes

This study examines the relationship between attribute performance of a restaurant and customers' positive and negative word of mouth (WOM). We present an analysis of 168,262 customer reviews, which consist of an overall rating of a dining experience, ratings of food, physical environment and employee service, and real expenditure for a meal, totally covering 1,542 Chinese restaurants on a restaurant guide website. The results indicate that the performance of attributes has an asymmetric impact on positive and negative WOM for the restaurant industry as well as for low-end and mid-to-high-end restaurants. Our results also show that, in most cases, there is a combined effect of two attributes on both positive and negative WOM.     

From real estate to consumption: the role of credit markets in the USA

The aim of this article is to test whether the credit market conditions affect the strength of transmission of real estate wealth effects on household consumption in the US economy. Although many different works have dealt with the analysis of the existence of a real estate wealth effect, most of them as a reaction to the dramatic increase of housing prices in several OECD countries, there are only few papers analysing whether the consumption response depends on the positive or negative sign of the wealth shock and, as far as we know, none of them takes the effects of credit market conditions on that asymmetric response into account. This article tries to fill the existing gap in the literature on this matter. From an econometric perspective, we estimate the asymmetries in the consumption response within the momentum threshold autoregressive model (M-TAR) proposed by Enders and Siklos (2001), but following Stevans (2004), it is applied to a multivariate framework. The main results show that the credit market conditions play a significant role in the transmission of changes in real estate wealth to consumption. In addition, we find that there exists an asymmetric behaviour in the US aggregate consumption spending responses to real estate wealth and credit market shocks, which is only significant when a negative shock takes place.     

The information content of the Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation forecasts

In this article, the inflation forecasts produced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and that generated by private forecasters, are used to assess whether the Reserve Bank possesses information about inflation that the private sector does not have. The results show that the Reserve Bank inflation forecasts embody useful predictive information about inflation, beyond that contained in private forecasts, over the recent inflation targeting period.