Real exchange rates: are they dominated by fundamental factors?

Using Bayesian model averaging, we determine which fundamental pair-wise differences suggested by the literature on optimum currency areas give the best explanation of medium-term variability of bilateral real exchange rates. The intercept in the best specification is statistically insignificant, implying that for a hypothetical pair of economies for which the differences were zero, the bilateral real exchange rate would not move. Thus, the ‘non-fundamental’ element of the medium-term real exchange rate variability is, in our sample at least, negligible on average. In other words, floating exchange rate does not in itself imply, on average, more real exchange rate variability in the medium term than an exchange rate peg.     

Do analysts who understand accounting conservatism exhibit better forecasting performance?

This study investigates the performance of analysts when they match the asymmetric timeliness of their earnings forecast revisions (i.e., asymmetric forecast timeliness) with the asymmetric timeliness of firms’ reported earnings (i.e., asymmetric earnings timeliness). We find that better timeliness‐matching analysts produce more accurate earnings forecasts and elicit stronger market reactions to their forecast revisions. Further, better timeliness‐matching analysts issue less biased earnings forecasts, more profitable stock recommendations and have more favorable career outcomes. Overall, our results indicate that analysts’ ability to incorporate conditional conservatism into their earnings forecasts is an important reflection of analyst expertise and professional success.     

网购市场鱼龙混杂现象的经济学解释：基于二维不对称信息的视角

网络购物市场存在商品鱼龙混杂的典型现象：高价格的商品不一定高质量，低价格的商品也不一定低质量，表现出明显的信息不对称特征。文章基于网络购物市场所存在的两个维度不对称信息的特征事实，即厂商在产品质量与产品生产成本两个方面拥有私有信息，通过构建二维不对称信息的分析框架，从市场均衡的视角首次解释了上述现象的经济机理。分析表明，由于二维不对称信息的存在，消费者和厂商决策的互动过程使得市场上产品价格与质量不再具有单调递增关系，从而网络购物市场可能出现鱼龙混杂的市场均衡，文章证明了这一均衡在合理的条件下是存在的。文章通过比较静态分析考察了市场环境的变化如何影响商品质量的价格信号显示效率以及消费者购买行为，并考察了网络购物行业商家披露信息、消费者对于商家的反馈评分机制和保证退货等手段对于消除商品鱼龙混杂现象的有效性，为进一步规范发展我国网络购物行业提供了参考。     

Price determinants of bred heifers: Do reputations matter?

Replacement brood cows are among the most significant investments for cow-calf operations, thus crucial to profitability. Many cow-calf producers find it cost effective to purchase replacements from a reliable replacement heifer seller, though by doing so they increase risk of reproductive inefficiency due to unknown characteristics of the heifers. When important information about a product is missing to buyers, a seller can build a reputation over time that acts as signal for quality. Previous work has explored reputation effects in feeder cattle markets, but to our knowledge we are the first to explore reputation effects in bred replacement cattle markets. Using data from an annual replacement heifer sale, we analyze the values of heifer characteristics and test for premiums from reputation development. After controlling for reproductive practices, breed, and other characteristics, we find reputation does not play the role that Shapiro theorized. In this sale, the lot order is strategically chosen and may indicate bred heifer quality to buyers, replacing the need for reputation as a signal. This study highlights the importance of quality signals and regional preferences in bred replacement cattle marketing and lays the empirical groundwork for future studies to test Shapiro's theory.     

张力控制系统在变频造纸设备中的应用研究

张力控制在变频造纸设备中的应用是造纸业的控制难题。本文构建了变频造纸设备张力控制系统模型,通过张力检测装置采集张力值,经PLC接收和判定,最终组成了直接张力控制系统,有效地保证了张力的恒定。同时采用Simulink工具箱,模拟和分析了Matlab软件环境下张力控制系统的仿真运行,最终证实了张力控制系统在变频造纸设备应用中的可行性,为张力控制系统的后续研究与发展指明了方向。     

Valuing Initial Public Offerings Using Article 11 Pro Forma Financial Information in the Prospectus*

We investigate whether Article 11 pro forma financial information assists investors in valuing IPOs. While the SEC expects it to be helpful in assisting investment decisions, Article 11 pro forma financial information is based on registrants' understanding and assumptions, and registrants can exercise their own judgment when preparing pro forma financial statements. It is therefore an empirical question whether the information contained in pro forma financial statements is useful to investors. We examine the association between pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity and the IPO offer value and find asymmetric results. While positive pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity are positively associated with the IPO offer value, negative pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity are negatively associated with the IPO offer value, suggesting that negative pro forma adjustments are priced as growth opportunities. Additional analyses reveal that the association between pro forma adjustments of book value of equity and the IPO offer value varies across different time periods and industries and that pro forma adjustments of book value of equity are initially mispriced by investors. In contrast, we do not find similar results for pro forma adjustments of earnings. Further empirical tests show that the asymmetric results of mispricing of pro forma adjustments of earnings and book value of equity may be explained by the requirements of Article 11 of Regulation S‐X for pro forma adjustments dictating that adjustments to earnings reflect only recurring items while adjustments to book value reflect both recurring and nonrecurring items.     

国际油价冲击与中国的经济增长——基于非对称关系视角的分析

本文基于季度数据，引入非对称协整模型，考察国际油价与中国经济增长的动态关系，并鉴于油价波动对不发达经济体可能的冲击，还测度了油价的不确定性并探析其对经济增长的影响，结果表明：（1）从短期来看，国际油价变化是国内经济增长的单向Granger原因，“中国因素”对全球油价变化的影响尚不明显；（2）从长期来看，国际油价和经济增长具有非对称协整关系，油价上涨对经济的影响明显大于油价下跌所产生的效应；（3）国际石油市场存在正反馈交易行为，导致油价波动在油价上涨时表现更加明显。油价不确定性在短期内对经济增长存在负面影响，长期中则不会显著影响经济增长。以上结果意味着必须高度重视石油安全问题，加强油价波动预警与风险管理系统。     

如何有效降低银行对小微企业抵押物要求——基于贷款技术的视角

在理论分析抵押物作用机制的基础上，实证研究能够有效替代抵押物的贷款技术，并进一步分析某些贷款技术难以发挥替代作用的可能原因，以降低银行对小微企业抵押物要求，从而缓解小微企业信贷配给。研究结论表明：抵押率与借款企业违约风险显著负相关，抵押物作用机制中客户选择效应占主导地位；关系型和担保型贷款技术可以显著降低银行对抵押物要求，而财务报表型和信用评级型贷款技术对抵押物的替代效应十分微弱；随着金融基础设施的完善，信用评级型贷款技术对抵押物的替代效应逐渐显现，但财务报表即使经过审计亦难以对抵押物形成有效替代。在此基础上，提出了完善金融基础设施、提高贷款技术事前甄别能力的政策建议。     

信用效应认识的深化与信用秩序的恢复和增强

市场经济从本质上讲是信用经济.在市场经济条件下,信用是最基本的社会经济关系,是整个社会经济得以维系和发展的基础.随着中国经济改革的逐步深入,特别是在加入WTO后,信用的作用逐步显现出来.但是,人们对信用效应的认识还有待深化,尤其是对信用关系紊乱可能带来的负面作用认识得不多,而对信用的积极作用往往习惯于借鉴美欧现成的信用模式.本文从深化对信用效应的认识入手,分析了信用秩序混乱的形成原因,并在简要评价我国信用基本状况的基础上,提出了恢复和增强我国信用秩序的建议.     

Volatility Relationship between Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

This paper utilizes calculated historical volatility and GARCH models to compare the historical price volatility behavior of crude oil, motor gasoline and heating oil in U.S. markets since 1990. We incorporate a shift variable in the GARCH/TARCH models to capture the response of price volatility to a change in OPEC’s pricing behavior. This study has three major conclusions. First, there was an increase in volatility as a result of a structural shift to higher crude oil prices after April 1999. Second, volatility shocks from current news are not important since GARCH effects dominate ARCH effects in the variance equation. Third, persistence of volatility in all commodity markets is quite transitory, with half-lives normally being a few weeks.