Whose policy uncertainty affects trade flows between Japan and the U.S.?

Previous studies mostly assumed that the effects of policy uncertainty on trade flows are symmetric. In this article, we add to this literature by arguing and demonstrating that the effects could be asymmetric. Since asymmetry analysis requires using non-linear models, such models yield a more significant outcome than linear models. We show this by considering the trade flows of 66 two-digit U.S. exporting industries to Japan and 59 two-digit Japanese exporting industries to the United States. While both the linear and non-linear models predicted short-run effects of the U.S. and Japanese policy uncertainty on exports of most industries, the long-run effects were significantly different. In the long run, while the linear model predicted no significant effects of either uncertainty measure, the non-linear model 12 (14) U.S. exporting industries that were affected by changes in the Japanese (the U.S.) policy uncertainty measure and six (10) Japanese exporting industries that were affected by changes in the Japanese (the U.S.) policy uncertainty measure. Several large industries were among the affected industries.     

混合型组织的可持续成长：多重紧张的战略响应

本文从混合型组织的“多重紧张识别-多重紧张影响效应-多重紧张的战略响应”这一逻辑链条出发，建构混合型组织紧张表现形式的钻石模型，识别出以使命紧张和制度紧张为表现形式的本源性紧张和以战略紧张、治理紧张、运营紧张和身份紧张为表现形式的引致性紧张。在此基础上，提出紧张度对混合型组织可持续成长影响效应的倒U型关系，认为恶性紧张容易引发单向性使命漂移、内外部合法性冲突、组织治理失灵、扩展性受限等组织脆弱性问题，良性紧张则可以激发组织创新性、促进制度逻辑重构并促进组织身份制度化，有利于组织的可持续成长。针对混合型组织出现的多重紧张，本文结合紧张度和混合元素性质认知两个维度，拓展性地提出针对“紧张”的适度竞争、适当激发、分离战略、整合战略和弹性战略五种响应战略，并基于紧张形式与组织类别建立针对恶性紧张的响应战略适配矩阵。     

Credit Crunch and Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities

Through the lens of a DSGE model, I find that financial shocks in conjunction with downward nominal wage rigidities (DNWR) are important features in explaining the degree of asymmetry that U.S. business cycles exhibit. Financial shocks are constructed as residuals of the borrowing constraint faced by firms in a similar fashion to Jermann and Quadrini (2012). The effects of these shocks on aggregate quantity variables are amplified by DNWR, especially during the global financial crisis. Moreover, my model explains a large part of the upward shift in the labor wedge that occurred during this recession.     

金融发展的角力：金融集聚与金融排斥的非对称空间溢出效应分析

中国区域经济发展差异不仅体现在东西之间与南北之间，相邻地区的发展差异也尤为突出，而金融发展中集聚与排斥效应的角力是不可忽视的因素。本文通过检验2004—2018年31个省份金融集聚与金融排斥对经济增长的影响，发现金融集聚与金融排斥存在非对称空间溢出效应：相较于金融集聚，金融排斥的负向溢出效应更为显著，但是金融集聚能够有效缓解金融排斥对经济增长的负向作用。进一步剖析发现，在相邻地区金融资源的势差分布中，金融集聚的虹吸效应激发了金融排斥，由此形成非对称空间溢出效应，并且这种效应具有长期性特征，在人口密度较高的地区较为显著。此外，金融集聚的溢出效应源于金融效率的优化，金融排斥的溢出效应源自深化地理排斥、评估排斥和条件排斥。本文研究结论为解决中国区域经济协调发展中存在的不平衡问题、增强区域经济增长动力提供有益的政策启示。     

Dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading,financial uncertainties,and Chinese industry stocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles analysis

This paper investigates the dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading (CET), financial uncertainties, and Chinese stocks in different industries over the period from 19th December 2013 to 21st March 2022. We utilized a novel quantile framework including rolling window quantile regression method, quantile-on-quantile method, and causality-in-quantiles method to implement this research more comprehensively and accurately. Our contributions and findings, empirical in nature, are as follows: (i) In the early establishing stage of the carbon market, with a bullish market situation, carbon emission trading has a negative impact on most industry stocks. In the developing and improving stage of the carbon market, different industries have different impact situations. (ii) We find that the effects of financial uncertainty on stocks are stronger than CET on stocks. We also find that the dependence structures between CET, financial uncertainty, and industry stocks are asymmetric in most industries, and there are many mutation structures with significant risks in extreme situations. (iii) Carbon emissions trading, crude oil volatility, and US stock volatility all have strong causal relationships with Chinese industry stocks. (iv) We also provide policy suggestions to relevant countries to balance carbon market and stock markets and avoid risks from financial uncertainty in different industries.     

On the Sale of Package Tours to Infinitely Many Possible Types of Tourists

Alao and Batabyal (2013) have recently used contract theory to study the sale of package tours to tourists when the tourists can be of two possible types. In this note, we first generalize their analysis by studying the case in which the tourists can be of infinitely many types. Next, we compare our results with those obtained by Alao and Batabyal. Finally, we conclude and then discuss extensions of this note's research. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.