Systemic financial risk early warning of financial market in China using Attention-LSTM model

We propose an Attention-LSTM neural network model to study the systemic risk early warning of China. Based on text mining, the network public opinion index is constructed and used as a training set to be incorporated into the early warning model to test the early warning effect. The results show that: (i) the network public opinion is the non-linear Granger causality of systemic risk. (ii) The Attention-LSTM neural network has strong generalization ability. Early warning effects have been significantly improved. (iii) Compared with the BP neural network model, the SVR model and the ARIMA model, the LSTM neural network early warning model has a higher accuracy rate, and its average prediction accuracy for systemic risk indicators has been improved over short, medium and long terms. When the attention mechanism is included in the LSTM, the Attention-LSTM neural network model is even more accurate in all the cases.     

风险导向内部审计应用研究

在经济高速发展的大环境下,审计作为提升企业竞争力的一项措施受到了广泛重视。提及审计,大多数人都仅仅会想到其中的财务审计这一块,而在企业实际运营工作中,如何做好风险评估仍然存在很多欠缺之处,所以推动风险导向的内部审计发展,使其成为企业管理的一种重要手段,对于企业自身的发展具有重大意义,也是一个任重而道远的过程。     

On the Relationship between Audit Tenure and Fees Paid to the Audit Firm and Audit Quality

Abstract

We investigate the impact of audit firm tenure, partner tenure, audit fees, fees for non-audit services and total fees on audit quality, as measured by discretionary accruals. Our sample consists of Spanish non-financial public companies for the years between 2006 and 2013. Results indicate that audit quality increases with audit firm tenure but decreases with partner tenure. Moreover, the level of fees paid to the audit firm seems to have a negative impact on audit quality, which is mainly driven by fees for audit services. In this regard, we do not observe any significant relationship between fees for non-audit services and audit quality. Our results also show that the negative relationship between either long partner tenures or high fees and audit quality does not occur when the tenure with the audit firm is long. Therefore, long audit firm tenures do not only seem to involve higher audit quality ‘per se’, but also moderate the negative effects of partner tenure and audit fees on audit quality. The results of this study, which are robust to several sensitivity checks, may be relevant for the current debate on auditor rotation and the joint provision of audit and non-audit services.     

审计质量、产权性质对上市公司投资效率的影响研究

审计质量作为第三方会计师事务所为公司提供的服务,可以独立于公司之外对上市公司投资活动进行监督。根据产权理论,产权性质不同的经济组织从事的经济活动不同,审计质量对不同产权性质的上市公司投资效率的影响也不相同。本文以2014—2018年沪深两市上市公司作为样本,实证检验了审计质量、产权性质与公司投资效率间的关系。研究发现,审计质量与上市公司投资过度显著负相关,与投资不足负相关但作用并不明显;在国有上市公司中审计质量对投资过度行为的抑制作用更明显,在非国有上市公司中审计质量可以在一定程度上防止投资不足行为的发生但作用并不显著。研究结论有利于启示各不同产权性质公司的利益相关方,客观认识审计师的作用功能及其局限性,有针对性、有效率地利用好审计服务,改善公司投资效率。     

浅议CPA审计行业专门化问题

随着我国市场经济体制改革的不断完善,CPA审计行业所面临的社会环境也因此而产生了重大的变化。伴随着社会对审计人员的严格要求,审计人员的素质也在不断提高。当然,这对CPA这个行业无疑也产生了深深的影响,同时也对行业的专门化也起到了潜移默化的推动作用。因此在本文中,将会立足于注册会计师审计实务,通过具体分析行业专门化的竞争优势和目前的发展趋势,讨论审计行业专门化可能带来的经济后果,并且与多个上市公司的案例相结合,运用案例分析法、经验总结法、描述分析法等方法合理透彻地剖析出目前CPA审计行业所存在的问题,以及对已经存在的问题作出具体解决方案。     

Auditors' Responses to Workload Imbalance and the Impact on Audit Quality*

Using detailed data for fieldwork hours and audit hours by rank from audit engagements in Korea, we examine whether audits conducted under workload imbalance, proxied by busy‐season audits, impair audit quality, and how auditors adjust staff assignments for busy‐season audits. We generally find that busy‐season audits are associated with lower audit quality, and that audit firms reduce the involvement of senior auditors during busy‐season audits. In addition, the greater the involvement of senior auditors and junior auditors, the lesser the deterioration in audit quality. Finally, although there is no increase in interim audits in response to workload imbalance during busy seasons, increasing interim audits can mitigate the negative impact of busy‐season audits on audit quality. Our results are relevant to auditors and regulators, who have expressed concerns about the adverse effects of workload imbalance on audit quality.     

How to increase multichannel shopping satisfaction? An adapted Kano based stage-gate approach to select new technologies

Today, brick-and-mortar retailers with integrated online shops have many alternatives to increase their customers’ shopping satisfaction: They could invest in (for the retailers) new physical store technologies (e.g., beacons or magical mirrors if not implemented up to now), new online shop technologies (e.g., visual tagging or webcams), or in new less technology-based improvement options (e.g. events or product testing). We propose an adapted Kano based stage-gate approach to support multichannel retailers confronted with such selection problems. The approach is applied to a major European sporting goods retailer. 37 improvement options are pre-selected and evaluated by current and potential customers. It can be shown that instore returns, instore services, reserve&collect, click&collect, customization, product testing, and magical mirrors are drivers of satisfaction for the current customers and should be implemented in contrast to, e.g., geofencing or beacons. The potential customers are more technology-savvy, but show similar categorizations as a current customer segment and so confirm the selection.     

强化责任意识提升审计执行力

本文结合工作实践,从提升科级干部履职能力,有效执行能力,务实创新三个角度分别阐述审计干部强化责任意识的重要意义及有效途径。     

Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts,Audit Effort,and Audit Opinions on Internal Control

We examine the economic impact of analysts’ cash flow forecasts by looking at how external auditors respond to financial analysts’ issuance of cash flow forecasts. Using a differences‐in‐differences approach, we find that financial analysts’ initiation of cash flow forecasts leads to reduced auditor fees and audit report lags. Moreover, after cash flow forecast initiation, firms report fewer Section 404(b) internal control weakness disclosures. These findings suggest that cash flow forecasts constrain earnings manipulation and improve management accounting behavior, thereby reducing inherent and control risk and strengthening firms’ internal control over financial reporting.     

外部审计师依赖内部审计功能的研究综述

在外部审计师依赖内部审计功能的研究中,国内外学者认为环境因素会影响内部审计的规模和质量,进而影响外部审计师依赖内部审计的功能。不少学者认为内部审计作为管理培训的会计风险、内部审计资源的安排和调整所产生的固有风险等因素都会影响外部审计师依赖内部审计的程度。另有学者认为外部审计师依赖内部审计的功能主要受内部审计外包的调整、非审计服务和客户的压力、内部审计资源调整等因素的影响。在今后的研究中应着重考虑治理质量因素的相互作用对外部审计师的影响和内部审计资源的影响因素以及这些因素如何影响外部审计的可靠性等方面。