基于状态空间模型的汇率和货币供给对通货膨胀影响的实证分析——基于央行资产负债表的视角

从分析人民银行资产负债表的变化出发,运用状态空间模型实证分析了2005年7月至2012年6月中国汇率和货币供给对通货膨胀影响的动态时变过程。研究结果表明:人民币汇率升值对通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用,但其效果较弱;货币供给对通货膨胀有较大的正向推动作用,货币供给的持续增加是人民银行资产负债表中资产方的外汇占款科目不断增加导致负债方的基础货币持续增加的结果。     

以所有权为基础的贸易差额统计体系研究

传统的以一国关境为核算基础的贸易差额统计体系,已无法准确反映及把握全球化时代贸易投资一体化的经济运行状况。本文以美国1982-2003年数据为例,尝试通过将跨国公司的经营活动纳入贸易差额统计体系来重新审视美国经济,希望通过简单的统计方法调整阐明在经济全球化的背景下,建立以所有权为基础的贸易差额统计体系的重要性,说明贸易投资一体化下的美国经济的强大实力及长期发展潜力。     

中央与地方纵向财政不平衡的实证研究:1978-2003

本文对纵向财政不平衡的传统理论与新近发展进行了回顾,根据纵向财政不平衡的传统定义,对1978-2003年我国中央与地方纵向财政进行了实证分析,我们发现1978-1984年纵向财政处于正向不平衡状态,1985-1993年纵向财政基本平衡,1994-2003年纵向财政处于反向不平衡状态。分税制后中央本级财政收支正缺口呈扩大趋势,而地方负的财政缺口也呈扩大趋势,而且中央财政的正缺口并不足以弥补地方财政的负缺口,在地方举债受到严格限制的条件下,为弥补缺口,地方政府扩大预算外收入是其唯一途径。     

论代言人推荐式广告如何影响消费者态度

在日常生活中,常看到许多广告运用具有专家、真实产品的使用团体,或用明星为产品代言,这种利用代言人的推荐式广告手法,是期望能对消费者提供专家性、比较性或象征性,来达到品牌知名度提升,使产品表现出差异化形象,促使消费者的人格特质与品牌形象间产生连结效果,甚至产生行为规范性的影响,于是有越来越多的学者和市场营销人员将注意力放在广告中使用的代言人(Spokesperson)或推荐人(Endorser)上,并为其提出理论基础。     

Semi-parametric predictions of the intertemporal approach to the current account

This paper uses the method dynamic programming (DP) by GMM and Canadian data to estimate a dynamic model of a small-open economy. DP by GMM has several appealing features: it does not impose certainty equivalence, it accommodates multiple shocks and imposes few restrictions on the properties of the shocks in the model. Also, since it uses the actual shocks series to estimate approximate decision rules, it produces sample paths for the endogenous variables in the model. The model estimated fits the data well. In particular, the variance of the predicted trade balance-output ratio matches its empirical counterpart.     

试论我国对外开放新思维

我国的对外开放已经走过了二十多年的历程,取得了巨大成就。本文认为,随着我国经济实力迅速提升,国际地位日益提高,我们应总结、反思和提出新形势下我国的对外开放新战略。文章从政府作用新定位、国内外经济双平衡、引进外资平常心等三个方面探讨了我国对外开放的新思维:政府在制定经济政策时要具有国际经济大视野,要从维护国际规则向制定国际规则转变;要从追求国际收支顺差向追求国际收支平衡转变,实现国内外经济综合平衡;要从大规模招商引资向以平常心对待外商转变,对内外资企业一视同仁,鼓励技术创新。     

利益制衡——解决营销道德失范的良药

近年来假冒伪劣、虚假广告等不道德营销行为不时见诸媒体 ,营销道德失范问题日益成为人们谈论的热门话题。营销道德失范给咨询行业乃至整个社会造成了极为不良的影响。咨询公司营销道德失范是一个经济方面的问题 ,另辟蹊径 ,利益的驱动是产生不良营销行为的根本原因 ,为此引入第三方 ,建立利益制衡系统的解决思路。     

论FDI与中国国际收支的关系

近年来 ,外商直接投资在我国迅猛增长 ,2 0 0 2年总额已达 5 2 7.43亿美元 ,占世界直接投资总额近 1 / 1 0。外商直接投资在我国经济发展中所发挥的作用和影响在不断扩大和加深。将从直接与间接影响两个方面 ,研究外商直接投资与中国国际收支的相互关系 ,并结合我国对外直接投资的具体情况提出了相应对策与建议。     

董事会权力结构比较研究——兼论对我国公司治理的借鉴意义

董事会是公司权力执行机关 ,具有股东与公司在权力上的承接关系。但由于信息不对称 ,可能导致董事滥用权力造成损害性后果 ,且股东及监事的监督作用又具有滞后性。因此 ,对发达国家公司法律制度与我国制度现状进行有效评析 ,借鉴与设计有效的董事会内部权力制衡构架 ,对完善我国公司治理结构具有现实意义。     

Consumer Believability of Information in Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Advertising of Prescription Drugs

Direct to consumer (DTC) advertising has attracted significant research attention, yet none has focused on empirical assessments of its overall impact on U.S. consumers nationally, and tying assessment to relevant behavioral outcomes. This paper addresses the ethical issue of DTC advertising providing a balance of product and risk information that is both understandable and believable, and contributes direction to those exploring this phenomenon. Richard F. Beltramini is currently Professor of Marketing in the School of Business Administration at Wayne State University. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Texas at Austin, and served on the faculty of Arizona State University for fifteen years. His teaching interests include advertising and marketing management, research, and strategy. His primary research focus is on the believability of marketing communications information, and he has published in the Journal of Advertising, Journal of Advertising Research, Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing, and a variety of other journals, conference proceedings, and books as well as co-editing Gift Giving: A Research Anthology. Dr. Beltramini has served on the Editorial Review Boards of a number of academic journals, as guest editor of special issues of the Journal of Business Ethics and the International Journal of Internet Marketing and Advertising, as international president of the American Academy of Advertising, as a member of the American Advertising Federation's National Academic Committee and several other professional and business organizations, and is active as a consultant to several international organizations. He is the recipient of several national competitive grants and awards for his teaching and research, including the National Science Foundation, is the only faculty recipient of both his school’s Excellence in Research and Excellence in Teaching awards, and is currently the first Board of Visitors Faculty Fellow. Prior to academe, Dr. Beltramini worked for Texas Instruments, Inc. and The Drawing Board, Inc., both in Dallas, and he has also worked as a Visiting Research Professor for J. Walter Thompson Advertising in Chicago, Honeywell Information Systems in Phoenix, and the Federal Trade Commission in Washington, D.C.