腐败与金融包容性国际经验研究

金融包容性是指提高低成本的金融服务的广泛可得性。金融服务普及的深度和广度对国民经济的发展起到了至关重要的作用。而腐败会影响金融包容性,将贫困弱势群体排除在外,客观上形成金融排斥,加重小微企业贷款难、贷款贵等问题,降低金融服务实体经济的能力和质量。本文选取1995—2016年170个国家和地区建立非平衡面板数据模型,经过实证研究发现：腐败会显著降低金融服务的包容性,但会提高金融服务的可得性。并且腐败会通过提高银行贷款利率,增加贷款规模以及提高企业融资难度传导到金融包容性。此外,本文还进行了内生性检验,并按时间、经济发展速度、人口规模和地区划分进行异质性分析。本研究填补了腐败对金融包容性影响机制研究的空白,从而丰富了腐败对金融市场影响的研究,也为普惠金融的发展提供了重要补充。     

中小企业融资难的新解读

中小企业融资难问题已成为制约我国市场经济体制改革的重要因素。对主要发达国家经验的梳理,可以得到解决该问题的一般规律。基于我国中小企业发展的特点、金融系统结构失衡、政府职能错位三个方面的解读,可以发现我国中小企业融资难问题具有特殊性。本文提出的建议,包括构建"银政合作"模式,推进金融体制改革,创建中小型金融机构。     

Sufficiency of an outside bank and a default penalty to support the value of fiat money: Experimental evidence

We present a model in which an outside bank and a default penalty support the value of fiat money, and experimental evidence that the theoretical predictions about the behavior of such economies, based on the Fisher-condition, work reasonably well in a laboratory setting. The import of this finding for the theory of money is to show that the presence of a societal bank and default laws provide sufficient structure to support the use of fiat money and use of the bank rate to influence inflation or deflation, although other institutions could provide alternatives.     

The Bank Lending Channel Revisited

A central proposition in research on the role of banks in the transmission mechanism is that monetary policy imparts a direct impact on deposits and that deposits act as the driving force of bank lending. This paper argues that the emphasis on policy‐induced changes in deposits is misplaced. A reformulation of the bank lending channel is proposed that works primarily through the impact of monetary policy on banks’ balance sheet strength and risk perception. Such a recasting implies, contrary to conventional wisdom, that greater reliance on market‐based funding enhances the importance of the channel.     

西方中央银行沟通视角下的预期管理研究：渠道、手段及效果

近年来,中央银行沟通成为一种新型的货币政策工具。基于中央银行沟通视角,分析西方国家在预期管理中的渠道、手段及效果,结论表明中央银行沟通有助于预期管理。借鉴西方国家沟通经验,提出中央银行的有效沟通,需要中央银行独立性及问责制作保障;重视沟通的规律性,强调沟通信息的清晰和准确;注重对宏观经济运行认识水平,提高公众的经济学素养。     

Open Market Operation Effectiveness in China

This paper examines the effectiveness of target rate guidance in open market operation by the central bank in China (PBOC). We find that target rate change in open market operation is effective in adjusting the short-term Treasury rates. The target rate changing direction is more effective than the target rate changing level. There is no significant asymmetry in the effectiveness between the target rate increase and target rate decrease. We also document that the effectiveness of the target rate is conditional on liquidity operation of the same direction, especially when they both aim to loosen the monetary policy. Furthermore, consecutive operations with higher intensity appear to be more effective in adjusting the market interest rate.     

Interest rate dynamic effect on stock returns and central bank transparency: Evidence from emerging markets

Interest rate dynamic effect on stock returns is examined under different levels of central bank transparency under an asset pricing context. Using a large set of emerging countries in a panel data framework, we provide evidence for a negative link between stock returns and interest rate differences. However, this negative effect is reduced significantly under a transparent central bank, underlying a non-linear impact on stock returns. Our study is focused on a period from 1998 to 2008 where fundamental changes in the level of central banks’ transparency were occurred. Our findings imply that restrictive monetary policies under high levels of transparency lead to smoother reductions on stock returns with significant benefits for financial stability.     

Are rules and boundaries sufficient to limit harmful central bank discretion? Lessons from Europe

Marvin Goodfriend׳s (2014) insightful, informative and provocative work explains concisely and convincingly why the Fed needs rules and boundaries. This paper reviews the broader institutional design problem regarding the effectiveness of the central bank in practice and confirms the need for rules and boundaries. The framework proposed for improving the Fed incorporates key elements that have already been adopted in the European Union. The case of ELA provision by the ECB and the Central Bank of Cyprus to Marfin-Laiki Bank during the crisis, however, suggests that the existence of rules and boundaries may not be enough to limit harmful discretion. During a crisis, novel interpretations of the legal authority of the central bank may be introduced to create a grey area that might be exploited to justify harmful discretionary decisions even in the presence of rules and boundaries. This raises the question how to ensure that rules and boundaries are respected in practice.     

Contained crisis and socialized risk: Unconventional monetary policy by the Bank of Japan in the 1890s

In the 1880s, Japan experienced its first stock investment boom, which was highly leveraged by the banking sector. In 1890, its first financial crisis occurred and triggered a de-leveraging process. With a high lower bound of the conventional interest rate intervention under the fixed exchange rate regime, the Bank of Japan decided to implement a massive securities purchases first time among major industrial economies and continued this unconventional policy until the early 1900s. We examine how the unconventional intervention for a decade affected the stock prices and the trade volumes, and show that the upward distortion in market pricing was considerable and that the equity-risk premium accordingly dropped, which meant socialization of the risk associated with the industrial investment.     

大型银行、中小企业与贸易融资:青岛案例

长期以来,商业银行尤其是大银行拓展中小企业信贷市场一直面临困境。但中国工商银行青岛分行却以中小企业商品交易为基础,较为成功地开发了一系列贸易融资产品。由此可以看出,在特定的产品、制度和技术保证下,大银行也可以成为中小企业信贷市场上的有效资金供给者。