Impacts of Novel Protein Foods on Sustainable Food Production and Consumption: Lifestyle Change and Environmental Policy

We analyse the impacts of a change in consumers’ preference for Novel Protein Foods (NPFs), i.e. a lifestyle change with respect to meat consumption, and the impacts of environmental policies e.g. tradable emission permits for greenhouse gases (GHGs) or an EU ammonia (NH₃) emission bound per hectare. For our analysis we use a global applied general equilibrium (AGE) model that includes consumers’ lifestyle change, different production systems, emissions from agricultural sectors, and an emission permits system. Our study leads to the following conclusions. Firstly, more consumption of NPFs assists in reducing global agricultural emissions of methane (CH₄), nitrous oxides (N₂O) and NH₃. However, because of international trade, emission reduction does not necessarily occur in the regions where more NPFs are consumed. Secondly, through lifestyle change of the ‘rich’, the emission reduction is not substantial because more ‘intermediate’ consumers will increase their meat consumption. Finally, for the same environmental target the production structure changes towards less intensive technologies and more grazing under environmental policy than under lifestyle change.

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Examining Trends of Criteria Air Pollutants: Are the Effects of Governmental Intervention Transitory?

Despite its growth in other areas of economics,time series econometric methods have not beenwidespread in the area of environmental andresource economics. We illustrate one use oftime series methods by examining the time pathof US nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emission dataover the period 1900–1994. The analysishighlights that proper time series methods canaid in optimal regulatory policy as well asdeveloping empirical verification of theoriesput forth to explain economic phenomena. Inaddition, several interesting results emerge. First, we find that the emissions seriescontains both a permanent and random component. Second, if one attributed all of the emissionsreductions to regulatory policy, interventionanalysis suggests that the 1970 Clean Air Act(CAA) did not merely have transitory effects,but permanently influenced the NO_xemission path. In terms of total regulatoryimpact, an upper bound on the emissions saveddue to the 1970 CAA is in the range of27%–48%.     

Fossil fuel subsidies and environmental constraints

Fossil fuel subsidies are applied in many countries for different policy reasons such as maintaining jobs in fossil fuel sectors, securing national energy supply or lowering the energy costs of selected industries to strengthen competitiveness. The current economic costs of fossil fuel subsidy policies can be substantially increased by future environmental constraints. We illustrate this point in the framework of a general equilibrium analysis for Germany where we quantify the economic costs of alternative hard coal subsidy policies at different CO₂ reduction levels. Our calculations show that German hard coal subsidies as a means of retaining jobs can get very expensive with additional specific costs of up to annual 70 000 DM per job for a given CO₂ reduction target of 35%. Though the empirical analysis is focused on Germany the general conclusion that current subsidy policies of fossil fuels must be fundamentally reconsidered in view of forthcoming environmental constraints is also relevant for other countries.     

Geographically explicit global modeling of land-use change, carbon sequestration, and biomass supply

This study aims to determine whether carbon sequestration policies could present a significant contribution to the global portfolio of climate change mitigation options. The objective is to model the effects of policies designed to induce landowners to change land use and management patterns with a view to sequester carbon or to reduce deforestation. The approach uses the spatially explicit Dynamic Integrated Model of Forestry and Alternative Land Use (DIMA) to quantify the economic potential of global forests. The model chooses which of the land-use processes (afforestation, reforestation, deforestation, or conservation and management options) would be applied in a specific location, based on land prices, cost of forest production and harvesting, site productivity, population density, and estimates of economic growth. The approach is relevant in that it (1) couples a revised and updated version of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios with the dynamic development of climate policy implications through integration with the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE); (2) is spatially explicit on a 0.5° grid; and (3) is constrained by guaranteeing food security and land for urban development. As outputs, DIMA produces 100-year forecasts of land-use change, carbon sequestration, impacts of carbon incentives (e.g., avoided deforestation), biomass for bioenergy, and climate policy impacts. The modeling results indicate that carbon sequestration policies could contribute to a significant part of the global portfolio of efficient climate mitigation policies, dependent upon carbon prices.     

Interfuel substitution effects of biofuel use on carbon dioxide emissions: evidence from the transportation sector

This study examines the interfuel substitution effects of biofuel use on carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. transportation sector. First, the dynamic linear logit model is used to examine substitution possibilities between biofuels and non-biofuels. The results reveal that petroleum demand is the most inelastic with respect to changes in petroleum prices since the transportation sector depends heavily on the use of petroleum. In addition, ethanol serves as a substitute for petroleum, showing that the use of ethanol can reduce the dependence on petroleum when petroleum prices increase. The results also indicate that ethanol is a complement for natural gas, while natural gas is a substitute for petroleum. Second, the coefficients for carbon dioxide emissions are used to compute the potential amount of carbon dioxide associated with interfuel substitution. The results represent that price-induced interfuel substitution is a critical factor to predict biofuel-related carbon dioxide emissions.     

Do Negotiated Agreements Lead to Cost Efficiency?

Received October 16, 2000; revised version received August 2, 2001     

外商直接投资、新型城市化与中国碳排放

基于2006-2016年省际面板数据，构建新型城市化评价体系并采用熵值法对中国新型城市化发展综合水平进行测度，通过建立以城市化水平为门槛变量的回归模型，实证检验了FDI对中国碳排放影响的非线性门槛效应。研究结果表明，FDI对中国碳排放影响具有明显的城市化水平双门槛效应。     

The impact of the UK aviation tax on carbon dioxide emissions and visitor numbers

We use a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows to estimate the impact of the recent and proposed changes in the Air Passenger Duty (APD) of the United Kingdom. We look at four different scenarios (abolishing the APD, keeping the 2001 APD level, the 2007 APD and the Conservative Party's “Green Miles” proposal) using base, high and very high elasticity levels as well as assumptions about the substitutability between domestic and international holidays and the effects of a carbon tax. We find that the recent doubling of the APD has the perverse effect of increasing carbon dioxide emissions, albeit only slightly, because it reduces the relative price difference between near and far holidays. Tourists arriving into the UK would fall slightly. The number of tourists travelling from the UK would fall in the countries near to the UK, and this drop would be only partly offset by displaced tourists from the UK. Tourists leaving the UK for countries further a field would increase. The proposal of the Conservative Party to exempt the first 2000 miles (for UK residents) would decrease emissions by roughly the same amount as abolishing the APD altogether—but the number of tourists arriving into the UK would not rise. These results are reversed if we assume that domestic holidays and foreign holidays are close substitutes. If the same revenue were raised with a carbon tax rather than a boarding tax, emissions would fall rather than rise.     

低碳供应链环境下作业成本法在第三方物流企业中的应用

随着第三方物流企业日益重视供应链竞争,传统的成本核算方法不能准确客观的对供应链环境下的物流成本进行计算,更无法合理分配碳成本。本文运用作业成本法,基于整个供应链以真实成本核算为导向选取碳排放成本指标,将其作为独立模块纳入成本核算系统中,便于企业掌握准确真实的成本信息,进行成本控制,做出成本决策。     

中国特色“低碳经济”优化模型研究

随着我国经济的稳定增长、人民生活质量不断提高,如何实现低碳经济、限制二氧化碳的排放变得极具挑战。本文首先对我国在2018年的GDP总量、能耗总量以及碳排放总量进行了预测;然后根据预测结果,以经济产出最大化、碳排放量最小化以及行业环境效率评估等为目标函数,构建中国低碳经济优化模型;最后通过求解、分析得到针对我国产业部门结构的最优调整方案,为我国进一步实现低碳经济提供了科学依据和参考。