Seasonal decomposition and forecasting of telecommunication data: A comparative case study

In this paper, forecasting models for the monthly outgoing telephone calls in a University Campus are presented. The data have been separated in the categories of international and national calls as well as calls to mobile phones. The total number of calls has also been analyzed. Three different methods, namely the Seasonal Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing Method and SARIMA Method, have been used. Forecasts with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each method and compared with the actual data. The outcome of this work can be used to predict future demands for the telecommunications network of the University.     

利率市场化中的风险转移与商业银行风险规避

利率市场化通过对利率管制下扭曲利率的校正 ,实现了资源的有效配置 ,促进了经济增长。然而利率市场化以后 ,基准利率的确定、利率的波动趋势以及外资金融机构的进入 ,将使商业银行面临风险转嫁的可能。商业银行必须适时建立起完善的风险防范和风险管理制度。     

建设项目选址的规划论证

区域重大建设项目选址涉及到区域社会、经济、环境等各个方面,其选址的合理与否关系到区域社会经济的持续、快速、健康发展.科学的分析论证可加强建设项目的可操作性,也可使其规划管理依据更加充分、决策更加科学合理.基于此认识,提出了建设项目选址符合城市规划论证的主要内容,并以330千伏西安西南郊变电站选址为例进行了详细的说明和论述.     

Capacity constrained firms in (labor) markets with adverse selection

Summary. We discuss a competitive (labor) market where firms face capacity constraints and individuals differ according to their productivity. Firms offer two-dimensional contracts like wage and task level. Then workers choose firms and contracts. Workers might be rationed if the number of applicants exceeds the capacity of the firm. We show that under reasonable assumptions on the distribution of capacity an equilibrium in pure strategies (by the firms) exists. This result stands in contrast to the case of unlimited capacity. The utility level is uniquely determined in equilibrium. No rationing occurs in equilibrium, but it does off the equilibrium path. Received: December 29, 1999; revised version: November 30, 2000     

东部与中西部企业家文化比较--基于中国企业家相关调查报告的分析

企业家文化的不同是导致经济发展和体制转型绩效差异的重要原因。基于对中国企业家一系列调查报告的分析，从企业家职业生涯、创新精神上对东部与中西部企业家进行比较，并据此分析东部与中西部企业家文化之间的差异。     

浅谈我国化学工业园区的筹建和开发

通过参与化学工业区开发，对化工园区筹建和开发，包括化工园区的选址、定位及开发过程的一些实际操作提出了建议。     

The coverage assignments of financial analysts

Previous studies document that forecast accuracy impacts analyst career outcomes. This paper investigates the influence of forecast accuracy on coverage assignments. I show that brokerage houses reward accurate analysts by assigning them to high-profile firms and penalise analysts exhibiting poor accuracy by assigning them to smaller firms. The coverage of high-profile firms increases the potential for future compensation linked to investment banking and trading commissions. In addition, covering such firms increases analysts' recognition from buy-side investors, which, in turn, increases the likelihood of obtaining broker votes and votes for the Institutional Investor star ranking. Overall, my results indicate that high forecast accuracy leads to increased future compensation.     

The interactive effects of organizational and leadership career management support on job satisfaction and turnover intention

In the organizational career management literature, scholars have focused on career management policies, with little attention given to practices that can vary within organizations. And despite its recognized importance, research on the role of leaders in the career management process is also scant. In this study, we investigate the effects of career management practices (OCPs) and leadership career support (LCS) on employee attitudes. Grounded on coping theory, we propose that career support received from line managers can be particularly consequential when OCPs are lacking. We analyze the moderating effects of LCS on the relationship between OCPs and both job satisfaction and turnover intention in a sample of employees from a large Brazilian organization, applying multiple regression analyses. Results showed that OCPs and LCS are positively related to job satisfaction and that OCPs are negatively related to turnover intention. In addition, we confirmed that LCS moderates the relationship between OCPs and both job satisfaction and turnover intention. Finally, we observed that the relationship between OCPs and turnover intention is mediated by job satisfaction. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

农户声誉对农村借贷市场中逆向选择的约束研究

农户的声誉是信用社借贷决策中主要的考量因素之一.声誉能够反映农户能力与品格的综合信息,那些能力较强、品格好的农户才会有较高的声誉水平.文章利用信号传递博弈模型,阐明在农户与信用社的非对称信息借贷博弈中,农户声誉如何成为信用社识别可信赖的贷款农户的有效信号,从而克服农村借贷中的逆向选择问题.     

现代企业职业生涯管理的新视角——内部营销

文章在现有职业管理理论问题分析的基础上提出引入营销视角的必要性,并从营销的核心概念——交换和满足需求两个层面分析了营销式职业管理的可行性,最后对市场营销的方法体系在职业管理中的运用做了初步探讨。