积极财政政策的可持续性分析

本文分别从当前宏观经济形势、我国政府债务风险和公共部门投资的挤出效应三个方面考察了我国积极财政政策的可持续性。认为我国当前的经济形势下 ,积极财政政策的淡出还为时尚早 ;我国单纯的国债风险并不高 ,但是我国政府的综合债务风险却相当大 ,控制我国综合债务风险的关键是控制存量 ;我国公共部门对民间投资的挤出效应不明显 ,当前民间投资不活跃的主要原因是另一种“挤出效应” ,即对民间投资的歧视和限制 ,要改变这种情况的主要方法是改革     

Current Situation of China''''s Petroleum Supply & Demand and Change of Circulation System

China's crude supply consists of the imported crude and crude produced by CNPC and CNOOC. In 1996, national crude production reached 157.29 million tons including 141.41 million tons produced by CNPC. Offshore crude production in 1996 soared to 15. 01 million tons, up 78% from 1995. In 1997, China will produce, import     

新农保对农民最优储蓄的挤出效应及其影响因素分析——基于两期代际扩展模型的应用

摘要：新型农村养老保险制度的实施和持续发展,不仅具有维护农村居民社会养老保险权益公平性的社会作用,还能起到刺激农村消费需求增加从而促进农村经济发展的经济作用。通过两期代际扩展型的应用,证明了新农保的实施对个体农户终身效用最大化下的最优储蓄存在挤出效应,其主要影响因素有：缴费年限、缴费比率、养老保险账户的增值保值能力和收入替代率等,并以此为基础,提出了完善新农保制度、促进其可持续发展的政策建议。     

后发国家创新模式选择：一个综述性理论框架

本文梳理了理论界对后发国家创新模式及路径选择的有关文献,构建了一个理论框架来解答后发国家原始性创新的可能性与可行性,认为在跳出“后发优势”的理论和现实束缚基础上,后发国可以从先发国崛起的过程中寻找本国原始性创新能力提升的内生性要素。     

产业政策、基金投资与企业股权再融资

如何有效引导资金流向政策支持的产业,是产业政策发挥效果、促进金融服务经济的关键。根据“产业政策引导基金投资,基金投资与产业政策的有机结合影响企业再融资”的思路,研究了产业政策对基金投资行为的影响,并进一步研究了产业政策影响下的基金投资能否促进企业再融资问题。研究发现：产业政策能引导基金投向政策支持的企业;基金持股与产业政策的交互作用引导资本市场资金流向政策支持的企业,促进企业再融资。研究有助于深入理解产业政策、资本市场主体行为和市场资源配置之间的关系,更好发挥产业政策的导向作用和金融支持实体经济的功能。     

完善行政问责制的对策探讨

行政问责制是一种良好的责任追究制度,但仍存有：缺少监督、问责不力、权责不一、问责不公、暗箱操作、问责随意等缺憾。完善的对策：一是构建完整的责任形式体系;二是加强监督,积极发挥其它主体的作用;三是信息公开化,实现＂阳光问责＂。     

Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Prediction Revisited

This paper measures latent fundamental exchange rates with independent component‐based rates constructed from a cross‐section of exchange rates and then uses their deviations from exchange rates to forecast. Empirical results indicate that the independent component‐based model and its Taylor rule and purchasing power parity augmented models are superior to the random walk in predicting exchange rates. These results are robust to several scenarios and are likely to be observed if the U.S. sources and the recursive scheme are applied. Our results reveal that information regarding the third moment of exchange rate changes is helpful to explain exchange rate movements.     

加快推进嘉兴市建筑业“走出去”发展的对策

嘉兴市建筑业在开展＂走出去＂发展过程中已经取得了较好的成绩,但仍然存在着企业家缺乏开拓精神、企业竞争能力薄弱、科技创新能力不足、复合人才紧缺、自有资金缺乏、政府职能部门保障机制缺位等诸多问题。要想改变这种现状,必有加强舆论宣传、完善鼓励政策、提升企业创新能力、加快结构调整、培养引进人才、开展金融创新、完善行业保障机制等措施,加快推进嘉兴市建筑业＂走出去＂发展的步伐。     

Investigation of the “China effect” on crowding out of Japanese FDI: An industry-level analysis (1990–2004)

This paper applies a dynamic panel model to investigate whether China is crowding out Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) from other economies of Asia. We examined this with industry-level data on Japanese FDI flows into Asian economies. In order to deal with possible problems of serial correlation and endogeneity, we estimated coefficients using a difference and system generalized method of moments to examine the “China effect” on industries. We found a significantly high degree of crowding out effect by China on its Asian counterparts. Among twelve industries, a crowding out effect was found in nine industries, including electrical &; electronics—the biggest industry for Japanese FDI. However, a complementary effect was found in two industries, one of them being transport, which is the second biggest industry for Japanese FDI. We conclude that while China's rise is a prominent threat for the region, it could be transformed into an opportunity in vertically fragmented industries.