民航客运量预测方法研究综述

为了提升民航运行效率、准确预测客运量,促进其可持续发展,采用分类学方法将民航客运量预测方法划分为传统统计学、机器学习、组合模型3大类。详述各类方法的改进原理、效果和应用,通过数据处理、权重调整、参数优化和结构改进提高准确性,并总结组合模型相对单一模型的优势。实证研究结果表明,组合预测模型相较于单一模型具有更高的准确性,并指出结合人工智能和大数据技术的发展趋势,构建优秀的组合预测模型将是提高准确性的潜在研究方向。     

提篮式型钢悬挑脚手架特殊工况验算方法探讨

为了实现提篮式型钢悬挑脚手架在实际工程中的广泛应用,对不同工况下的提篮式型钢悬挑脚手架进行了精准设计和有效验算,采用理论分析法得出了 一般工况下提篮式型钢悬挑脚手架的主梁和拉杆内力表达式,在此基础上结合现场实际情况建立了多种特殊工况的验算方法.然后采用单因子变量法给出了多种特殊工况下的计算实例,并结合计算结果和现场施工...     

Inequality Beyond GDP: A Long View

This paper addresses international inequality in multidimensional well-being during the last one-and-a-half centuries. Inequality fell in health and education since the late 1920s, due to the globalization of mass schooling and the diffusion of the health transition, but only dropped in population-weighted terms from 1970 onward for political and civil liberties, as the emergence of authoritarian regimes increased its dispersion since the end of World War I. In terms of augmented human development inequality declined since 1900. These results are at odds with per capita income inequality that rose over time and only shrank from 1990 onward. The gap between the OECD and the Rest of the world accounted only partially for inequality in well-being since the dispersion within developing regions became its main driver from the mid-20th century onward. Countries in the middle and lower deciles of the world distribution achieved the largest relative gain over the past century.     

土木工程施工中混凝土施工技术探析

土木工程当中的质量把控,将直接影响到整个项目的质量。本文中,笔者将重点研究土木工程施工过程中混凝土施工的技术要点,借助于混凝土施工一般具有较强的可连续性作业、成型容易、专业性强以及输送能力大等特征开展相关探析,以文献研究为基础研究方法,而这方面的研究最终将提升我国混凝土施工的水平,促进我国土木工程整体质量的提高,这充分表明针对当前技术手段进行分析与扩展,能够实现我国土木工程的可持续发展。     

基于GDIM法的中国民航运输业碳排放因素探讨

以2010—2018年中国民航运输业碳排放量作为研究对象,基于kaya恒等式模型,采用GDIM法将碳排放量分解为8个影响因素贡献值之和,将8个影响因素分为强度效应、规模效应以及效率效应进行分析。分析结果表明,规模效应有明显的碳排放促进作用,强度效应总体上有明显的碳排放抑制作用,效率效应既有促进作用,也有抑制作用。基于分析结果,提出加快制定发展战略规划、提高民航运输效率、提高能源利用率与加强国际合作等建议。     

Tax morale,fiscal capacity,and war

This paper studies the effects of mobilization for war on the development of fiscal capacity and the values of tax compliance (tax morale). We propose a dynamic setting where governments may invest resources to improve the efficiency of the fiscal apparatus and the citizens' tax morality in order to raise the necessary revenues for the defense against a threat (external or internal), and parents optimally choose to transmit their preferences of tax compliance to children. Despite fiscal capacity and tax morale are initially substitutes, we show how a dynamic complementarity may arise in equilibrium from a more efficient transmission of the values of tax compliance in countries with high fiscal capacity, and this may explain why they tend to move together over time. Under reasonable conditions, we obtain that the effect of a higher threat of war on the steady-state level of the culture of tax compliance is negative when fiscal capacity is relatively low, and positive when the latter is large. We show cross-country evidence based on war frequency, fiscal capacity, and tax morale that is consistent with the results of our theory.     

大型钢网架结构支撑卸载施工技术研究——以广东省佛冈体育馆工程为例

为了使网架结构在卸载过程中能平稳地进行应力重分布，保证结构的安全性及施工的便利性，结合佛冈体育馆钢网架屋面项目，采用有限元分析对临时支撑卸载过程进行施工模拟，分析卸载方案各个阶段结构的内力分布情况；建立屋面大型钢网架临时支撑的卸载方案，用于指导现场施工；在实际结构的关键支撑点位处，使用先进测量技术自动化监测采集支撑杆件卸载全过程的应力应变、位移变形等数据，与施工模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明：卸载过程各关键杆件的最大变形和应力不存在超限情况，整体结构受力稳定。所提卸载工艺能够有效控制网架构件变形和内力，实现体育馆屋面的信息化施工管理，保证网架临时支撑体系平稳、安全卸载。研究成果可为优化网架结构支撑卸载方案提供借鉴，并为大跨度网架结构施工管理提供科学依据。     

民用建筑结构设计中的基础设计分析

我们国家经济水平在不断的提高,就让人们对于住房的相关需求变得越来越高,并且房屋建筑的相关设计是整个建筑行业里面特别重要的一个影响因素,并且其中关于整个设计的基础设计对于整体建筑的安全以及稳定都有特别大的影响。本文主要去阐述民用建筑结构设计里面的这些基础设计,并详细的剖析对其基础设计造成影响的主要的一些原因,同时提出了相应的办法进行解决。