基于指数平滑法的组合模型对住房需求量的预测研究

以哈尔滨市2000—2015年的城市人均住房使用面积和总人口数为基础,分别对总人口数建立三次指数平滑法模型,对人均住房使用面积建立二次指数平滑法模型,预测出哈尔滨市未来五年总人口数和人均住房使用面积,将总人口数和人均住房使用面积的预测结果代入M-W优化后的预测模型,更加精准的预测出了哈尔滨市未来五年的住房需求量,并对此提出对策和建议。     

基于灰色系统模型的城乡建设用地规模预测——以常德市鼎城区为例

土地利用总体规划是区域性的综合规划,为地方性的经济发展提供科学和法律依据.建设用地的有效供给是地方经济发展基础,建设用地需求量预测是土地利用总体规划编制的核心,也是土地利用管理的依据.为了切实搞好常德市鼎城区的土地利用总体规划,使之更具有前瞻性、可操作性,必须切合实际地搞好建设用地需求规模和布局的预测.采用灰色系统模型,通过灰色关联度分析,建设用地发展与GDP、总人口、市镇人口、社会固定资产投资、人均GDP、第二产业产值、第三产业产值密切相关.基于这些因子,采用灰色系统模型法、建立GM(1,1)灰色模型,进行了2010年和2020年的城乡建设用地规模的预测.GM(1,1)模型可以进行长期预测,但预测仅反映一种趋势,综合考虑驱动因素的灰色线性组合模型更具有预测的可靠性.利用GM(1,1)模型和线性模型组合,进行城乡建设用地规模预测,可为土地利用总体规划提供可靠的保证.     

家族企业中的家族成员退出

家族成员的退出是家族企业正式组织与非正式组织统一的开始,是我国家族企业长远发展的前提。家族成员将其拥有的控制权全部或者部分售出,以换取明确份额的收益权,从而退出企业。在这个过程中,家族企业需要充分考虑影响退出过程的各个因素,选择适宜的方法,使退出成为提高企业资源整合效率的动力。     

产品研制“三化”工作研究与探索

阐述了产品研制"三化"工作意义和内涵,介绍了"三化"工作内容,提出了"三化"工作重点和工作方法。     

浅析施工企业的自主创新

在当前经济快速发展过程中,自主创新能力是提高施工企业核心竞争力的关键。本文结合我国建筑企业在自主创新方面的做法,分析了施工企业的自主创新体现在技术创新和管理创新两个方面,并提出了通过组合技术、以市场为导向、重视人才资源等途径来提高自主创新能力,从而提高施工企业自身的竞争力和建筑行业的科学发展。     

Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one model’s outperformance of another.     

“校企合作、产学结合”人才培养模式的实践与探索——以南京化工职业技术学院为例

本文分析南京化工职业技术学院实施＂校企合作、产学结合＂的基础和保障,提出具有鲜明特色的＂1＋1＋1＂的分段式人才培养模式和＂T11＂的顶岗实习模式,在＂1＋1＋1＂分段式人才培养模式和＂T11＂顶岗实习模式基础上完成重构理论、实践课程体系构建。     

浅谈爆炸硬化辙叉在朔黄线的应用

随着西煤东运第二条大通道朔黄铁路运量的增加,运输压力越来越大。自90年代以来,铁路运输飞速发展,提速、重载给工务线路带来了一系列问题,尤其是辙叉已远远不能满足铁路提速重载的要求。2011年开始朔黄铁路在黎明居车站3号、4号岔位和神池南车站2083#、2043#岔位陆续试用了60-12#和75-12#爆炸硬化辙叉。实践表明,爆炸硬化辙叉提高了道岔使用寿命,增大了安全系数,创造更多的经济效益和社会价值。     

Determining an optimal hierarchical forecasting model based on the characteristics of the data set: Technical note

The efficient flow of goods and services involves addressing multilevel forecast questions, and careful consideration when aggregating or disaggregating hierarchical estimates. Assessing all possible aggregation alternatives helps to determine the statistically most accurate way of consolidating multilevel forecasts. However, doing so in a multilevel and multiproduct supply chain may prove to be a very computationally intensive and time-consuming task. In this paper, we present a new, two-level oblique linear discriminant tree model, which identifies the optimal hierarchical forecast technique for a given hierarchical database in a very time-efficient manner. We induced our model from a real-world dataset, and it separates all historical time series into the four aggregation mechanisms considered. The separation process is a function of both the positive and negative correlation groups' variances at the lowest level of the hierarchical datasets. Our primary contributions are: (1) establishing a clear-cut relationship between the correlation metrics at the lowest level of the hierarchy and the optimal aggregation mechanism for a product/service hierarchy, and (2) developing an analytical model for personalized forecast aggregation decisions, based on characteristics of a hierarchical dataset.     

A model of medium term exchange rate forecast in an open economy The case of the mexican peso

Keynes (1930) and Samuelson (1965) proposals open the possibility of matching predictability and efficiency, as evidenced by the seminal study by Fisher (1930). Recent findings suggest that the foreign exchange market gradually incorporates relevant information allowing the formation of prices in a rational manner but not randomly. Models of exchange rate by term based on asset valuation suggest that the inclusion of risk in the spot rate increases the degree of predictability. The results show that after incorporating an accurate measure of risk, predictability of medium term foreign exchange rate increases.