The Effects of Oil Price on the Korean Economy: A Global VAR Approach

This article empirically explores the effects of oil price on the Korean economy using a Global VAR model. First, we evaluate the average connectedness of oil price with the Korean domestic variables over the precrisis period. We then investigate the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean financial and real sectors during and after the global financial crisis through recursive estimation. It is found that the contribution of oil price becomes very large in the case of real exports, equity prices, and real output, but plays a much less prevalent role in the remaining cases. In the meantime, the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean economy has not changed during and after the global financial crisis. Interestingly, we find that the Korean economy is affected mostly by overseas financial conditions in the short-term but it becomes more susceptible to oil price fluctuations in the long run, suggesting that Korea’s reliance on energy imports leaves the economy exposed to volatility in energy prices.     

A novel cluster HAR-type model for forecasting realized volatility

This paper proposes a cluster HAR-type model that adopts the hierarchical clustering technique to form the cascade of heterogeneous volatility components. In contrast to the conventional HAR-type models, the proposed cluster models are based on the relevant lagged volatilities selected by the cluster group Lasso. Our simulation evidence suggests that the cluster group Lasso dominates other alternatives in terms of variable screening and that the cluster HAR serves as the top performer in forecasting the future realized volatility. The forecasting superiority of the cluster models are also demonstrated in an empirical application where the highest forecasting accuracy tends to be achieved by separating the jumps from the continuous sample path volatility process.     

基于组合评价法的混流生产系统运行绩效评价

在目前集装箱制造行业转型升级的背景下，以某集装箱制造公司的特箱生产系统为例，构建混流生产系统运行绩效的评价指标体系，运用组合评价法对运行绩效进行评价。借鉴平衡计分卡的分析思路，对特箱生产系统的生产管理给出了相关的决策建议。此研究成果对其他制造型混流生产系统具有实际的指导意义。     

研学结合教学理念在微观经济学课程中的应用

为了探索适合高职学生学习特点的教学方法，提高教学质量，本文就研学结合教学理念的内涵、实施路径、特征和目的进行了探索和研究，并在微观经济学课程中进行试验。结果显示教学效果良好，教学质量得到提升，学生的学习兴趣得以提高，主动参与的积极性增加，培养了学生分析问题和解决问题的能力，为专业训练和实践打好基础。论文最后就研学结合教学理念在微观经济学课程实施中存在的问题进行了剖析，并提出了进一步探索和努力地方向。     

我国物流人才培养的关键问题分析及解决途径——建立区域联合培养实践基地的战略思考

产学研相结合的人才培育模式是培养高层次、复合型物流人才，解决我国物流人才缺口的关键。但我国目前的物流人才培养模式以及一对一为主的产学研培养模式仍存在着一定的问题需要解决。文章首先分析了我国目前物流人才培养过程中的基本问题，进而针对校企合作的产学研模式及其存在的主要问题进行了探讨。在此基础上，提出了解决这些问题的途径——建立区域联合物流人才培养实践基地的战略思考，并分析了该战略在运作模式、服务范围、资源利用、培养方式、协作关系以及功能拓展等方面的独特优势。     

Conditional Persistence of Earnings Components and Accounting Anomalies

We suggest that the failure of investors to distinguish between an earnings component's autocorrelation coefficient (unconditional persistence) and the marginal contribution of that component's persistence to the persistence of earnings (conditional persistence) provides a partial explanation of post‐earnings‐announcement drift, post‐revenue‐announcement drift, and the accrual anomaly. When the conditional persistence of revenue surprises is high (low) relative to its unconditional persistence, both the post‐earnings‐announcement drift and the post‐revenue‐announcement drift are high (low), because investors’ under‐reaction to revenues and earnings is stronger when the persistence of revenue surprises is more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings surprises. Also, the mispricing of accruals decreases substantially when the conditional persistence of accruals is high relative to its unconditional persistence, because investors’ over‐reaction to accruals is mitigated when the persistence of accruals is indeed more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings. Our findings also suggest that financial analysts’ failure to distinguish between unconditional and conditional persistence of revenues and accruals results in more biased revenue and earnings predictions.     

矿泉水瓶再生设计研究

由于500ml左右矿泉水瓶瓶口具有统一的螺纹规格,其次,瓶体的容量也具有接近统一的标准,这就为矿泉水瓶再生设计的开发提供了必要的前提。市场上关于矿泉水瓶的再生设计多利用矿泉水瓶作为盛水的容器,而没有继续探讨其盛放小型垃圾(瓜子壳,纸屑,铅笔屑等)的功能。本文以绿色设计中延长产品生命周期的理念为原则,以联想法、模仿法及组合法等产品设计方法为指导,推出一款全新的使用矿泉水瓶衍生功能的产品,并着重介绍在本设计进行的过程中得出的新的设计方法:系统化条件下的功能衍生法。通过这款设计来说明现有产品衍生出新的功能的可行性,并总结一定的设计经验与设计方法,为以后进行相关设计奠定理论和方法基础。     

Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision

We examine whether professional forecasters incorporate high-frequency information about credit conditions when revising their economic forecasts. Using a mixed data sampling regression approach, we find that daily credit spreads have significant predictive ability for monthly forecast revisions of output growth, at both the aggregate and individual forecast levels. The relationships are shown to be notably strong during ‘bad’ economic conditions, which suggests that forecasters anticipate more pronounced effects of credit tightening during economic downturns, indicating an amplification effect of financial developments on macroeconomic aggregates. The forecasts do not incorporate all financial information received in equal measures, implying the presence of information rigidities in the incorporation of credit spread information.