Assessing the relationships between Nationalism, Ethnocentrism, and Individualism in Flanders using Bergstrom's approximate discrete model

Although Nationalism, Ethnocentrism, and Individualism in Flanders have been the subject of several studies before, a longitudinal analysis has not been performed on all three concepts simultaneously nor have their relationships and the direction of their relationships been studied in continuous time. In this study we performed a continuous-time state-space analysis on panel data collected from 1274 subjects, in the years 1991, 1995 and 1999. The LISREL program is used for estimating the approximate discrete model (ADM), and for comparison, also the exact discrete model (EDM) is estimated by means of the Mx program. Details of continuous time modeling, especially the EDM and ADM, are dealt with. Individualism and Ethnocentrism turn out to be connected in a moderately strong feedback relationship with the effect from Individualism towards Ethnocentrism somewhat stronger than that in the opposite direction. Both Individualism and Ethnocentrism have small effects on Nationalism. The autoregression functions, cross-lagged effect functions, and mean predictions are shown.     

An insight into the Italian economy from an analysis based on the industrial production index in both frequency and time domains

This paper aims to gain new insights into the Italian economic tendency toward recovery by investigating the Industrial Production Index series (IPI). The trend and cyclical components of the series are determined using a novel technique which hinges on optimal truncated ideal low‐pass filters. The contributions of the latent components to the IPI series are brought to the fore by a spectrum analyzer that evaluates the spectra of the said components in the bands of interest. The analysis results corroborate that the Italian economy is still subject to cyclical effects that can compromise its recovery.     

The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis

Companies often suffer periods of financial distress before filing for bankruptcy. Unlike one-off bankruptcies, financial distress can occur repeatedly within the same individual firm. This paper is focused on the recurrence of financial distress and studies the Chinese stock market, where Special Treatment – an official indicator of financial distress – can be repeatedly applied to a listed company. We employ a stratified hazard model to predict the probability of subsequent distress with variables, including duration dependency, event-based factors, institutional variables, financial ratios, market-based variables and macroeconomic conditions. Our empirical results show that accounting and market-based variables have limited power in predicting the recurrence of distress, whereas the duration of recovery, restructuring events and their interaction terms with the accounting and macroeconomic factors affect the recurrent risk significantly. Tested on out-of-time samples, our proposed hazard models show a robust performance in the prediction of recurrent risk over time.     

影响网络消费行为的组合要素探究

随着网络、物流、信息、支付手段等方面的进一步便利化,网络消费行为越发呈现多样化与高频的特征,消费行为的形成受诸多关键要素影响,对其行为机理的探索与发现,有助于全面理解和认知网络消费行为的本质。采用国内快递企业所进行的大规模调查数据,尝试运用定性比较分析(QCA)技术与传统定量分析(logistic回归)相结合的混合研究方法,就网络消费行为的影响因素、要件及组合效应进行深入研究,力争突破传统研究方法与技术,拓展新的研究视角和分析思路。研究发现,配送效率、好友推荐、支付方式对网络消费行为有积极的组合效应,信息交互则与网络消费行为结果有负相关性。     

大同煤田同忻矿瓦斯地质特征及突出危险性预测

以大同煤田同忻矿为研究对象，以矿井基础地质资料为基础，共采集62口钻井共214个瓦斯气样，以实验测试为手段，以理论分析为方法，得出了瓦斯气样成分特征；划分了各个煤层的瓦斯带类型；分析了断裂、褶皱、陷落柱、埋深、岩浆侵入、煤化程度等因素对瓦斯赋存的影响；探究了各因素的影响机理；并预测了瓦斯突出危险性。结果显示：瓦斯成分以N2、CH4和CO2为主，山4#煤为N2-CH4带和N2带，2#煤层中包括N2-CH4带和N2带，3-5#煤层中包括N2-CH4带、N2带和CO2-N2带，8#煤层中包括N2-CH4带和N2带，9#煤层中包括N2-CH4带和N2带，将矿井鉴定为高瓦斯矿井；研究区断裂性质多为正断层，利于瓦斯气体的垂向运移和散失；向斜轴部、背斜鞍部、鼻状构造的倾斜端及“S”型背斜转折端等构造部位易于瓦斯的富集保存；封闭性陷落柱为瓦斯赋存提供储集空间，而与导水裂隙带联通的陷落柱则有助于瓦斯气体的散失；瓦斯含量与煤层埋深呈正相关关系，与岩浆侵入区煤样挥发分呈明显负相关关系，而无岩浆岩区，挥发分与瓦斯含量无明显相关性，煤层埋深越大，突出危险性越高；瓦斯突出危险性预测结果显示研究区突出危险性较小。     

疫情影响下我国航空客运量恢复期预测

2020年爆发的新冠肺炎疫情给全国的经济社会带来了巨大的冲击。作为对非正常事件或危机事件高度敏感的航空客运业来说,经济损失更是巨大的。本文根据新冠肺炎疫情与航空旅客运输之间的影响机理,结合2009年至2020年间我国民航客运量的月度数据,运用复合型序列的分解预测模型,对正常运行情况下的航空客运量进行预测,再结合疫情影响下的航空数据进行对比分析。研究表明:2020年航空客运业由于疫情的影响,从1月到12月客运量至少减少15527万人;到年底,有望恢复上年同期航空客运量的90%以上。     

Exploring combined tourist offerings: the case of sightrunning

This study provides preliminary empirical insight into the contemporary tourist phenomenon of sightrunning. This combined offering simultaneously concurs with and evades theoretical perspectives of hybrid tourists, sport tourism, cultural tourism and urban tourism, favouring examination of such phenomena through first-hand experiences of the participants. For the purpose of the empirical study, automated content analysis was applied in order to analyse 858 reviews of sightrunning tours extracted from Tripadvisor web pages. Results reveal that running is the dominant concept, which refers to a gratifying ‘way to see and experience the city’ (rather than the sights). Additional concepts and themes, such as knowledgeable guides and proper pace, further mediate and effect participant experiences. Findings suggest that sport tourists might be concurrently interested in involving cultural experiences, and this offers some preliminary theoretical and managerial implications. They namely identify the potentially neglected tourist segment, which is of relevance for conceptualization, research and management of tourist offerings and experiences from (and beyond) the perspective of ‘running shoes’.     

Robust Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Estimation for the Nested Error Linear Regression Model

Standard model‐based small area estimates perform poorly in presence of outliers. Sinha & Rao ( 2009 ) developed robust frequentist predictors of small area means. In this article, we present a robust Bayesian method to handle outliers in unit‐level data by extending the nested error regression model. We consider a finite mixture of normal distributions for the unit‐level error to model outliers and produce noninformative Bayes predictors of small area means. Our modelling approach generalises that of Datta & Ghosh ( 1991 ) under the normality assumption. Application of our method to a data set which is suspected to contain an outlier confirms this suspicion, correctly identifies the suspected outlier and produces robust predictors and posterior standard deviations of the small area means. Evaluation of several procedures including the M‐quantile method of Chambers & Tzavidis ( 2006 ) via simulations shows that our proposed method is as good as other procedures in terms of bias, variability and coverage probability of confidence and credible intervals when there are no outliers. In the presence of outliers, while our method and Sinha–Rao method perform similarly, they improve over the other methods. This superior performance of our procedure shows its dual (Bayes and frequentist) dominance, which should make it attractive to all practitioners, Bayesians and frequentists, of small area estimation.     

时间序列分析技术在煤炭价格预测中的应用

本文主要根据所收集的数据资料 ,同时结合国内、国外的实际情况 ,以计量经济学和统计学为基础 ,采用近年来国际上经济分析中应用较多的现代时间序列分析与预测方法 ,具体的将随机论、概率论、线性差分方程应用到我国煤炭市场价格预测中 ,对煤炭市场价格进行分析、预测。     

成本预测与施工控制——关于伊敏发电厂二期工程成本管理的思考

工程项目成本计划一般在项目经理负责下,由技术、预算、计划与财务人员通过项目的技术组织措施和施工预算以确定目标成本,并把指标分解到各单位工程施工班组和施工阶段进行控制管理,从而达到降低施工成本,提高项目施工效率的目的。