Short interest and stock price crash risk

Using a large sample of U.S. public firms, we find robust evidence that short interest is positively related to one-year ahead stock price crash risk. The evidence is consistent with the view that short sellers are able to detect bad news hoarding by managers. Additional findings show that the positive relation between short interest and future crash risk is more salient for firms with weak governance mechanisms, excessive risk-taking behavior, and high information asymmetry between managers and shareholders. Empirical support is provided showing that the relation between short interest and crash risk is driven by bad news hoarding.     

基于企业理论的“农民工”权益保护研究

随着农村劳动力的过剩,很多农民选择了城市务工,但是损害农民工权益的现象屡屡发生。研究"农民工"权益在企业的保护方案,首先要解决企业理论与"三农"政策的内在一致性。从原有企业理论出发,可以建立社会网络产业结构信息系统、各地区各行业"农民工"权益信息系统,给不同区域企业与"农民工"传递"农民工"权益及其变动信息,保护"农民工"的权益。     

货币政策对房价的影响：一个文献综述

通过文献资料法和比较分析法,评述有关货币政策对房价影响的研究方法与研究结论。研究成果：（1）房价与利率问题正日益受到各界关注;（2）房价与利率的关系,学者之间研究的结论不相同,有的学者认为利率对房价产生影响,有的学者认为利率对房价没有影响。研究启示：货币政策与房价的关系还需进一步研究,调控政策还需要不断地完善。     

随机利率影响下信用风险的Monte—Carlo模拟

在前人利用马尔科夫链表示公司信用等级的基础上,将信用等级和随机利率引入离散时间的信用风险模型中,从而提出随机利率影响下的新的信用风险模型。就上述模型,对不同初始信用等级、初始盈余以及不同时刻的破产概率进行Monte—Carlo模拟,并讨论了相同条件下初始盈余与破产概率、初始信用等级与破产概率以及时间长短与破产概率之间的相互关系。     

The implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand: What factors affect the 90-day bank bill rate?

This paper discusses the implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand and its flow-on effects on the 90-day bank bill rate over the 1999–2005 period. The effects of external factors are considered as well. Our findings indicate that the maturity spectrum ratio exerted a positive effect on the 90-day bank bill rate while the allotment ratio did not. This interest rate had a tendency to revert to the level set by its Australian counterpart, though at a relatively slow speed. No such link exists between the NZ 90-day rate and the U.S. 90-day rate. Neither the maturity spectrum nor the allotment ratio contributed to the volatility of the most important short-term interest rate in New Zealand.     

Bundling attractions for rural tourism development

Tourism is often regarded as a viable solution to economic crisis, especially for remote areas without many development options. While many tourism destinations have strong cultural or heritage assets, not all destinations have primary attractions that can bring visitors to the region. Rather than developing special interest “themes”, rural areas that do not have enough of any one type of tourism resource to act as a primary draw may consider bundling different attraction types to increase visitation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the preferences of visitors to secondary heritage sites and explore the relationship between heritage tourism and alternative, non-heritage activities in rural areas. Findings revealed that motivation to visit small-scale heritage sites consisted of two dimensions: learning and recreation. The two motivational dimensions influenced visitors’ interest in different heritage attractions and likelihood of visiting heritage tourism “scenarios”. As for alternative activities, there was a cluster of “popular” activities that were enjoyed by both learning-oriented and recreation-oriented respondents, but recreation-oriented visitors were more interested in nature-based activities and sport-related activities than learning-oriented visitors. Findings can help rural communities improve secondary attractions and diversify their tourism product by bundling heritage attractions with non-heritage activities.     

民族村寨社区参与旅游开发的利益保障机制

民族村寨作为一类特殊社区,是我国乡村旅游开发的重要区域.社区参与是民族村寨旅游可持续发展的前提,而社区旅游利益的保障是社区有效参与的决定性因素.本文从旅游利益分配现状及其原因出发,基于开发的基本理念和目标提出了民族村寨社区参与旅游的利益保障机制.     

市场和政府:扩大内需的约束条件

七次降息未能扭转通货紧缩现象,其原因在于以间接融资为主的金融市场,利率机制自发调节存在 失灵的区域,而宏观调控缺乏运作的基础,也存在盲目性。应加快利率市场化进程,促进金融市场直接融 资的迅速发展,才能有效实现币值稳定和经济增长。     

当前经济形势与互换利率走势判断

2010年上半年,利率互换市场交投活跃。随着市场对经济增长和政策运用预期的不断修正,互换利率继1月创出新高后一路振荡下行。预计下半年,在基本面、政策面、资金面和利率自身波动节奏的相互作用下,市场参与者的预期将反复进行修正,互换利率将呈现宽幅震荡。     

Testing the intertemporal labor supply model: are jobs important?

The neoclassical life-cycle labor supply model assumes that hours of work are determined by labor supply choices alone and does not include a role for employers or job distinctions. An alternative model in which employers have an interest in employee hours and changing jobs is costly may reconcile weak and conflicting evidence regarding the neoclassical model. An important implication of such an alternative is that individuals may face hours constraints on a job and thus can choose hours freely only between jobs. This paper tests several implications of the neoclassical model against this alternative model of hours determination. Using a unique panel of individuals and jobs constructed using data on women from the 1988–1992 Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I compare hours variances and labor supply elasticities measured within and between jobs. Results provide some evidence against the neoclassical model and suggest that ignoring the role of employers in determining hours of work can lead to downward bias in estimates of labor supply elasticities.