股票价格稳定性的非参数平滑估计

股票的优质性主要由股票价格的稳定性来决定。通过建立条件风险函数非参数平滑估计的估计方法,证明条件风险函数平滑后的非参数估计值具有一致性和渐进正态性,并将此方法扩展到了截尾数据中。通过蒙特卡罗模拟表明条件风险函数平滑后的非参数估计值在非截尾数据以及截尾数据中的有限样本行为都要优于非平滑的估计值。实证分析中用截尾数据条件风险函数非参数平滑估计方法非参数估计中国14大行业股票价格的稳定性,发现房地产行业的股票价格最不稳定,建筑材料行业的股票价格表现最稳定     

变革中多渠道信息传递对员工绩效的影响机制

面对日趋复杂的外部环境,组织变革成为企业获得竞争力的重要方式。员工参与是组织变革成败的关键,充足的组织变革信息有利于员工积极投入变革。本文以社会信息加工理论为基础,对来自被兼并企业的36个工作团队185名员工进行研究,探索多渠道变革信息传递对员工的影响机制。基于多层次线性模型的数据分析结果表明:(1)变革情境下,组织正式渠道进行信息沟通和变革氛围包含的非正式信息,均能正向促进员工变革绩效;(2)员工所持有的积极变革期望,在多渠道信息传递和变革绩效间起到中介作用;(3)变革氛围跨层调节变革信息沟通对员工积极变革期望的正向作用,相比于低变革氛围情景,具有高变革氛围的团队,通过变革信息沟通更能显著提升员工对变革的积极期望。研究结论对企业变革实践中信息传递和沟通工作具有现实指导意义。     

我国地区经济增长收敛的动态变化:1978—2017年

改革开放40年来，我国地区经济增长收敛现象较为明显。地区人均GDP增长不仅持续上升，而且水平差距也在不断缩小，存在条件收敛现象，并且东部和沿海地区经济增长的"俱乐部收敛"现象显著。进入20世纪90年代后，增长收敛趋势愈发突出，2008年国际金融危机也未影响增长收敛的发展态势。未来要继续坚持改革开放，补上各地制度和要素的短板，积极培育和发展有利于地区人均GDP增长收敛现象产生的一系列基础性因素，以实现区域更加协调发展。     

Bayesian modeling of joint and conditional distributions

In this paper, we study a Bayesian approach to flexible modeling of conditional distributions. The approach uses a flexible model for the joint distribution of the dependent and independent variables and then extracts the conditional distributions of interest from the estimated joint distribution. We use a finite mixture of multivariate normals (FMMN) to estimate the joint distribution. The conditional distributions can then be assessed analytically or through simulations. The discrete variables are handled through the use of latent variables. The estimation procedure employs an MCMC algorithm. We provide a characterization of the Kullback–Leibler closure of FMMN and show that the joint and conditional predictive densities implied by the FMMN model are consistent estimators for a large class of data generating processes with continuous and discrete observables. The method can be used as a robust regression model with discrete and continuous dependent and independent variables and as a Bayesian alternative to semi- and non-parametric models such as quantile and kernel regression. In experiments, the method compares favorably with classical nonparametric and alternative Bayesian methods.     

航空燃气涡轮发动机气路故障诊断现状与展望

燃气漩涡发动机应用领域非常广,伴随着经济的发展,该发动机已经从航天和舰船上的应用向其他领域发展。为了提高燃气漩涡发动机的可靠性、耐久性和经济性,相关行业不断加大对燃气漩涡发动机的研究力度,尤其是航空领域,对燃气漩涡发动机的研究力度不断增加,大量实验和研究对发动机气路故障进行了有效诊断,笔者结合实验结果,对航空燃气涡轮发动机的发展前景做了相关阐述。本文从发动机气路诊断发展着手,对航空燃气漩涡发动机气路故障诊断现状和展望做了简单介绍。     

公众期望与会计信息真实性的关联分析

公众对会计的期望与对会计行为的认识之间存在期望差距,基于不同期望水平对会计信息失真现象所作的分类揭示了会计信息真实性的内涵。通过公众期望与会计信息真实性的关联分析可以发现,加强公众与会计界的沟通理解以及强化会计信息失真的治理,是解决会计信息真实性问题的有效途径。     

Estimation of Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Models: Application to Daily Average Prices of Energy Products

Energy supply and demand, and as a consequence energy prices, are likely to represent one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. Commodity markets exhibit increased volatility when there is little or no underutilized supply capability to meet natural fluctuations in demand. In the case of energy markets, the large capital requirements and significant lead times associated with energy production and delivery make them more susceptible to the imbalances in supply capability and demand. Energy price volatility has destructive impact on market agents, and this impact is intensified when the prices exhibit asymmetric volatility. This article pursues two aspects of the issue. First we consider general aspects, especially the asymmetric pattern of volatility of daily returns of different types of energy products. Then, we analyze the behaviour of daily returns by using traditional models of volatility that include AGARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH, and ARSV strategies, as well as a threshold asymmetric autoregressive stochastic volatility (TA-ARSV) model that we propose. The energy products considered in this analysis are probably the most relevant energy products for the economic activity of the nations and the economic relations between countries: Crude Oil (OPEC reference basket and London Brent index), Gasoline, Natural Gas, Butane, and Propane. We use spot prices and the time reference ranges from 1986–1993 to 2009 depending on the product.     

激励性即时评价对习得无助状况的改善作用

本文重点介绍了习得无助的形成,并结合儿童从出生到小学的学习阶段的实际情况,分析了当前教育理念的弊端,同时通过对网络游戏沉迷状况类比分析,阐述了激励性即时评价对孩子兴趣和自信心养成的重要作用。     

营业厅的客户服务期望管理

本文旨在通过对营业厅这一服务界面中客户服务期望的探讨,提出营业厅客户服务期望管理的思路和实施手段,为服务型企业获得更高的客户服务质量评价提供镜鉴。     

Correlation dynamics and international diversification benefits

Forecasting the evolution of security co-movements is critical for asset pricing and portfolio allocation. Hence, we investigate patterns and trends in correlations over time using weekly returns for developed markets (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs) over the period 1973–2012. We show that it is possible to model co-movements for many countries simultaneously using BEKK, DCC, and DECO models. Empirically, we find that correlations have trended upward significantly for both DMs and EMs. Based on a time-varying measure of diversification benefits, we find that it is not possible to circumvent the increasing correlations in a long-only portfolio by adjusting the portfolio weights over time. However, we do find some evidence that adding EMs to a DM-only portfolio increases diversification benefits.