对戴维森的意义理论的评述

戴维森以塔斯基的真理论为基础,提出了自己著名的意义理论———成真条件语义学。戴维森的成真条件语义学是对塔斯基的真理论的继承和发展,对语言哲学的发展起了重大的作用。     

基于VaR修正理论的投资组合优化模型

根据风险价值VaR的计算思路,本文提出了基于GARCH理论的风险计量投资组合优化模型;同时在修正的VaR——尾条件期望的基础上对证券组合投资的优化模型做了进一步的改进。     

基于数学期望的采购风险管理决策分析

风险决策中的期望值法是处理风险决策问题的常用方法。借助于期望值法,结合某企业的案例数据,对如何实现物流采购的最优化进行风险决策分析,并对最优方案进行了稳定性分析。     

变革中多渠道信息传递对员工绩效的影响机制

面对日趋复杂的外部环境,组织变革成为企业获得竞争力的重要方式。员工参与是组织变革成败的关键,充足的组织变革信息有利于员工积极投入变革。本文以社会信息加工理论为基础,对来自被兼并企业的36个工作团队185名员工进行研究,探索多渠道变革信息传递对员工的影响机制。基于多层次线性模型的数据分析结果表明:(1)变革情境下,组织正式渠道进行信息沟通和变革氛围包含的非正式信息,均能正向促进员工变革绩效;(2)员工所持有的积极变革期望,在多渠道信息传递和变革绩效间起到中介作用;(3)变革氛围跨层调节变革信息沟通对员工积极变革期望的正向作用,相比于低变革氛围情景,具有高变革氛围的团队,通过变革信息沟通更能显著提升员工对变革的积极期望。研究结论对企业变革实践中信息传递和沟通工作具有现实指导意义。     

Equity market neutral hedge funds and the stock market: an application of score-driven copula models

In this article, we study the time-varying market neutrality of equity market neutral hedge funds. We use data from the Hedge Fund Research? Equity Market Neutral Index (HFRX EH), which represents the performance of a portfolio of individual equity market neutral hedge funds. For each day, we measure different levels of association of the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&;P 500) index and the HFRX EH. We use non-linear dynamic conditional score models of location, scale and copula that, to the best of our knowledge, have not yet been applied in the body of literature on hedge funds. We study whether the neutrality of the HFRX EH that is evidenced in the body of literature for the period of April 1993–April 2003 also holds for the following decade, for the period of May 2003–December 2016. We estimate different average levels of association for the pre-, during- and post-periods of the US financial crisis of 2008. We find that the association of the S&;P 500 and the HFRX EH, on average, is significantly positive for the pre- and post-periods of the financial crisis, and it is significantly negative for the period during the financial crisis.     

不同预期冲击的叠加效应与预期管理优化——以货币政策预期和技术进步预期为例

“预期转弱”是当前中国经济高质量发展面临的难点之一,需要通过优化预期管理来提振预期。现实经济中存在不同类型的多样化预期,然而现有研究大多研究单个预期（特别是货币政策预期）冲击的宏观经济效应,对不同预期的叠加效应缺乏系统深入的探讨。本文将预期分为政策预期（基于政府制定、调整及实施宏观经济政策产生的预期）和非政策预期（基于社会经济发展实态等形成的预期）,并认为：当政策预期与非政策预期相契合时,两种预期冲击叠加会对政策有效性产生“累进（退）”效应;当政策预期与非政策预期错位时,两种预期冲击叠加对政策有效性会产生“抵消”效应。比如,宽松货币政策的实施及相应的预期管理操作会使经济主体产生未来经济向好的预期,并激励其采取积极的投资和消费行为,进而提高货币政策的有效性;现实经济中良好的技术进步态势会使经济主体形成未来经济繁荣的预期,并促使采取积极的创新、投资、消费行为,最终表现为货币政策有效性提高;两种正向预期的叠加则会进一步增强宽松货币政策的有效性。采用货币政策调控指数和全要素生产率来描述货币政策和技术进步预期冲击,运用DSGE模型和SV-TVP-FAVAR模型对“无预期冲击”“存在货币政策预期冲击”“存在技术进步预期冲击”“存在货币政策和技术进步双重预期冲击”4种情形下的货币政策有效性进行模拟分析和实证检验,结果显示,两种预期冲击均增强了货币政策有效性,并在总体上形成叠加“累进”效应。与现有文献相比,本文进行了如下改进和拓展：一是基于政策预期与非政策预期的角度探究货币政策和技术进步预期冲击的叠加效应,二是采用货币政策调控指数回避以往研究中量价工具“非此即彼”的选择问题,三是运用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型为货币政策和技术进步预期冲击的宏观经济效应提供经验证据。本文研究表明,预期管理是一项系统性工程,需要构建和完善宏观调控预期管理体系。要正确认识政策预期与非政策预期的契合与错位,利用政策预期增强（弱化）积极（消极）的非政策预期,并优化各种预期管理之间的方式匹配和期限组合;政策预期管理的优化要提高各种政策调整之间的协同性,并完善政策信息传导机制;非政策预期管理的优化则要完善宏观经济信息传导机制,并改善市场环境。货币政策预期管理的改进,需要提高政策调整及工具使用的合理性和适宜性,并不断完善央行沟通、前瞻指引等预期管理方式,实现政策信息传导的及时有效。     

服务补救后顾客满意驱动机制的实证研究——基于电子商务背景下对感知风险和购物经验调节效应的剖析

服务补救已得到实践界和理论界的广泛重视,然而电子商务条件下有关服务补救后顾客满意的驱动机制的研究目前却十分有限。文章率先从期望不一致性的视角探讨了服务补救措施驱动顾客满意的作用机制,并检验了其所扮演的中介角色。同时,探讨并验证了电子商务条件下的一些情境因素(感知风险)对服务补救和期望不一致性之间关系的调节作用,以及购物经验对服务补救和顾客满意之间关系的调节作用,从而弥补了现有相关研究中存在的不足。     

投资者的异质预期对IPO抑价的影响

针对IPO抑价中的有意抑价和无意抑价问题,运用行为金融理论,在以机构投资者利益最大化推导出机构投资者需求函数的基础上,研究了散户和机构投资者的同质和异质预期对IPO抑价的影响,并进行抑价进行比较分析。研究表明:机构投资者具有有意抑价的激励;当机构投资者与散户对新股价值不存在分歧时,IPO抑价中只有有意抑价,而无无意抑价;当机构投资者与散户对新股价值存在分歧时,分歧越大,IPO抑价越高,而抑价中的有意抑价不变、无意抑价增大。     

Challenges and Changes in Gendered Poverty: The Feminization,De-Feminization,and Re-Feminization of Poverty in Latin America

Despite reductions in poverty generally, recent trends in Latin American countries show processes of both de-feminization and re-feminization of poverty. A rise in the numbers of women to men living in income-poor households has occurred despite feminized anti-poverty programs, most notably conditional cash transfers (CCTs), which target resources to women. This paper shows that methodological differences in what, how, and who is the focus of measurement may influence patterns of poverty “feminization.” It also suggests that feminized policy interventions might in themselves be playing a role in the re-feminization of poverty, not least because of data and definitional limitations in the way female-headed households and, relatedly, women’s poverty are understood. The somewhat paradoxical interactions between the feminization of household headship, the feminization of poverty, and the feminization of anti-poverty programs present interesting challenges for redressing gender gaps in poverty within the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.     

Conditional Cash Transfer and School Outcomes: An Evaluation of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program in Davao Oriental,Philippines

The present study adds to the empirical literature examining the effects of conditional cash transfers on school outcomes. Using school‐level and student‐level enrolment data from Davao Oriental Philippines, we evaluate the influence of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (also known as 4Ps), a social development policy program, on the growth rates in school enrolment outcomes. The findings show that 4Ps, on average, increased school enrolment of children by 1.12 percent. It was also apparent that using student‐level data as opposed to school‐level data revealed a more robust effect of 4Ps on school outcomes. We also found some school and socioeconomic characteristics influencing the change in school enrolments. Finally, this study highlights the role of government intervention programs in improving access to education in the poorest sector of the economy.