On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy

There has been a major shift within macroeconomic policy over the past two decades or so in terms of the relative importance given to monetary policy and to fiscal policy in both policy and theoretical terms. The former has gained considerably in importance, with the latter being rarely mentioned. Furthermore, the nature of monetary policy has shifted away from any attempt to control some monetary aggregate (prevalent in the first half of the 1980s), and instead monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift towards the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the nature of monetary policy. This enables us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy, and to explore the role of fiscal policy. We examine these questions from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that it is rather limited in its analysis. When the analysis is broadened out to embrace empirical issues and evidence the clear conclusion emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. The role of fiscal policy is also considered, and we argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy. This is particularly an apt conclusion under current economic conditions.     

基于共识模型和前景理论的输水工程运行安全风险评价

为了评估输水工程运行安全中防汛度汛不及时、地基缺陷、应急反应不及时、冰期输水不畅、异常渗透和水质安全出现问题6种关键风险因素的优先级,采用基于共识模型和前景理论改进的故障模式及影响分析法(FMEA),用语言分布评价法评估风险因子信息,用信任关系作为共识调整系数修改共识模型,用前景理论对故障模式的风险进行优先级排序。研究结果表明,异常渗漏的风险最大,冰期输水不畅风险最小,与实际情况相一致;并通过与其他改进的FMEA方法比较,验证了排序结果的可行性和有效性。     

ELECTRE TRI for Groups with Imprecise Information on Parameter Values

ELECTRE TRI is a well-known method to assign actions to predefined ordered categories, considering multiple criteria. Using this method requires setting many parameters, which is often a difficult task. We consider the case where a group of Decision Makers (DMs) is unsure of which values each parameter should take, which may result from insufficient, imprecise or contradictory information, as well as from lack of consensus among the group members. In a framework where DMs provide constraints bounding and interrelating the parameter values, rather than fixing precise figures, we discuss the problem of finding the best and worst category that each action may attain.     

A neural network unification

We study the relation between the asymptotic behaviour of synchronous Boltzmann machines and synchronous Hopfield networks. More specifically, we consider the relation between the pseudo consensus function that is used in analyzing Boltzmann machines and the energy function that is used in the study of Hopfield networks. We show that for small values of the control parameter, synchronous Boltzmann machines and synchronous Hopfield networks compute global respectively local maxima of the same function.     

To agree or not to agree? A meta-analytical review of strategic consensus and organizational performance

The premise underlying most of the research on strategic consensus is that a higher degree of consensus has a positive impact on organizational performance. Empirical studies, however, have produced inconsistent results for the strength and direction of this relationship, as well as for the role of potential moderators. With this meta-analysis, we provide empirical support for a positive effect of strategic consensus on organizational performance, and offer evidence for the existence of several moderators of the aforementioned relationship, which we then discuss as fruitful avenues for future research. This study enhances our understanding of this important strategy process construct and benefits managerial practice by discussing means for improving the realization and implementation of strategies.     

Strategic consensus mapping: A new method for testing and visualizing strategic consensus within and between teams

Research on strategic consensus focuses primarily on the extent of agreement among team members regarding organizational strategy. It does not include elements such as the content of the agreement, between‐group consensus, or the significance of differences in consensus (e.g., for evaluating the effectiveness of strategic interventions). We propose a new analytical approach, Strategic Consensus Mapping, that provides a comprehensive analysis of strategic consensus within and between groups and that includes intuitive and easy‐to‐understand visualizations. This approach offers researchers the necessary tools for integrative theory building in strategic consensus, as well as in the broader managerial and organizational cognition domain. Using a case example, we illustrate the proposed methods for a multidimensional, multilevel, and longitudinal analysis of strategic consensus. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于内部控制判断一致性和内部控制可靠性模拟的文献综述

西方国家从20世纪60年代就开始研究审计人员对内部控制判断是否具有一致性及能否用数学方法来描述内部控制状态这两个问题，本文对这些研究文献进行综述，综述的重点在于研究的具体问题、研究方法及研究结论。     

Consensus formation during strategic change

This paper offers a refined conceptualization of consensus formation and demonstrates in three organizations how this conceptualization enables us to uncover new patterns of consensus building. It describes a longitudinal study which investigated consensus formation in three organizations undergoing major strategic change. The study explored whether consensus building occurred during the strategic change and, if so, how. Initial participants of consensus were also investigated as well as changes in the scope of participants in consensus. Consensus building did occur, but contrary to some views less through an increase in the strength of consensus and more through an increase in the scope of consensus. Additionally, initial consensus was not located among members of the top management team, but more within an interest group whose members benefited from the given direction of the change. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Group Consensus: The Impact of Multiple Dialogues

The research results on group consensus have been ambiguous within the field of Group Support Systems (GSSs). Some research studies have shown that groups using multiple communication channels produce more ideas, and more unique ideas than groups using a single communication channel. In addition, a second set of research findings have shown that groups using GSSs report group members hold less consensus with the group's decision. This research studies more closely how these two characteristics; communication channel and consensus, interact. Specifically, can less consensus be a function of the choice of channels used in problem solving. The results show that groups using a single communication channel generate more actual consensus than groups using multiple communication channels. Furthermore, the single channel discussions provide more integrative comments and these integrative comments may help explain the difference in consensus. These results suggest that those striving for consensus from group members should consider production methods used to create the information that is to be used in the decision.     

Analysis of multiple criteria decision support systems for cooperative groups

This article reviews research on multiple criteria decision support systems for cooperative groups. The systems included in this survey integrate concepts from group decision theory, multiple criteria decision methodology, and decision support system technology. Three dimensions are considered in the analysis of existing research: the multiple criteria decision technique used to generate decision alternatives or to choose from a given set; the method used to facilitate individual compromise and group consensus; and the application category, if any.