中国经济转型与发展的政治经济学分析——基于中俄经济转型比较

虽然中国的经济转型已经取得了重大的成果,然而目前改革的任务依然艰巨,旨在从政治经济学的角度来理解我国正在经历的转型之路.通过对中俄经济转型的理论基础华盛顿共识和制度演进主义的比较分析,思考中国经济转型与未来发展之路.     

Technology and Group Decision Process in Going-Concern Judgements

Accounting and auditing practices are continually being affected by advances in technology. This study empirically examined the effect of group decision processes and technological advances on group going-concern decision making. Groups with access to group decision support systems (GDSS) were compared to groups without access to GDSS for their going-concern judgments. The results show group discussion induced auditors to be more conservative and to consider factors which may have overlooked at the individual level, though neither structure significantly reduced the considerable variance in the individual going-concern judgments. Further, as compared to their counterparts in the face-to-face discussion groups, GDSS groups indicated much higher confidence in their group's final assessment of the client's going-concern status and a higher level of satisfaction and agreement with the group decision processes. The findings suggest that while group discussions did not significantly reduce auditors' considerable variance in going-concern judgments, future research should investigate which explicit models would improve the consensus on going-concern evaluations.     

土地增值收益分配公平群体共识及其增进路径

研究目的:构建一种调查分析失地农民、政府官员、在耕农民、城市居民、高校学者等相关群体关于土地增值收益分配公平共识状况的方法,为征地问题研究和制度改革提供参考。研究方法:问卷调查、指数分析、比较分析。研究结果:(1)关于土地增值收益分配公平的群体共识与分歧并存,被调查对象总体上处于弱共识水平;(2)关于土地增值收益权利公平、机会公平的群体间共识度高于规则公平、结果公平;(3)失地农民、在耕农民、城市居民、专家学者、行政官员的群体内共识度依次递减,分别为0.66、0.63、0.59、0.57、0.50;(4)对于是否按照农民意愿进行补偿、是否允许在耕农民分享收益、开发区用地是否属于公共利益等,存在严重的社会分歧。研究结论:应通过社会价值观念引领,制度环境改革完善和建立利益协调沟通机制等增进土地增值收益分配公平群体共识,为改革提供有利的社会基础。     

The quest for monetary and financial stability: a review of professor Dilip M. Nachane,critique of the new consensus macroeconomics and implications for India

We review Professor Nachane’s book on New Consensus Macroeconomics. The Review argues that such a consensus is possible not at theoretical level, but at policy level, clarifies the link of Keynes’s General Theory to his Treatise, introduced in the book, brings out contributions of Wicksell, Clower, and Schumpeter, missed out in the book, and evaluates the discussion of issues in central banking/financial sector reforms. The book emphasizes monetary/financial stability. We recommend applying a proposal for regulatory veto to securitized bundles of loans issued by different lenders. These represent business or gambling bets rather than theoretically possible aggregation of risks.     

Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends?

This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long‐run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.     

有序政治参与的目标功能分析

有序政治参与对共同体的存在和个体的充分发展都具有非常重要的意义，其目标功能体现在推进面向公共利益的有效率的公共秩序、在多元社会中维持一定水平的政治共识、以公民教育和避免市场化倾向的公民个体的全面发展当中。     

略论网络舆论及其引导

网络舆论的利远大于弊,其存在有着合理性和必然性。但网络舆论需要正确的引导,才能趋利避害：政府应以“以法治网”为根本,用有效的制度安排来容纳和规范网络舆论的表达;对网民加强公民意识的培养和教育;从技术层面对网络舆论实行有效把关;强化主流传统媒体与网络媒体的舆论互动;在动态中掌握网络舆论引导的主动权。     

Is silence golden? An inquiry into the meaning of silence in professional product evaluations

The world today is rife with product recommendations from professional critics and experts that are available from numerous sources—television, magazines, radio, internet, etc. Very often these recommendations shape our decisions and choices. In this study, we investigate two main issues regarding expert opinions. First, we present an approach that uses information available from every expert, including those who are silent about the product, to obtain a consensus measure of expert opinion. Our model also allows us to obtain a measure of how informative each expert is and how their information content may vary by type of review. More importantly, our overall measure of expert opinion weights the opinion of each expert based on how informative they are at the particular quality level of the product being evaluated. In other words, we provide consumers with a method that reconciles conflicting expert opinions into a summary measure. The second issue we investigate in this paper is the meaning of “silence” in expert opinions. Our model demonstrates that the fact that an expert is silent about a product may imply a positive or a negative review, depending on the expert. We use data from the motion pictures industry to illustrate our approach. JEL Classification M31     

权力、道德与永久和平——汉斯·摩根索国际政治思想再阐释

汉斯·摩根索的国际政治思想需要重新解读。作者重新阐释了其"现实主义六原则",认为实际上在没有这六原则的《国家间政治》第一版中,摩根索的理论思想已然完整清晰,并持续至第七版。同时还原了其"理论理解"和政治行动的两分:即"争强权"和"求和平"。摩根索对国际政治的"理论理解"为:国际政治,像所有政治那样,是争取权力的斗争。在理论理解基础上的求和平过程中,摩根索首先将从国际政治理论推演上均势的不可能同实际历史中经典时代的均势全盛之实际生成相对照,引入道德共识这一因素作为均势成功的补充,并得出结论:均势得以存在和维系数百年,最根本在于依赖道德共识。而摩根索认为解决他那个时代的唯一可行及牢靠的方式是"永久和平",即,只有当所有国家放弃主权,全球变为一个国家时,国际间牢靠的永久和平才能实现,第一步能做的是复兴外交。而这种外交中,多有之前所谓道德共识因素的影子,区别在于外交复兴的目的不是均势而是永久和平。在摩根索那里,国际政治中的现实主义思想的最终目的地是"永久和平"。     

Top management team diversity,group process,and strategic consensus

This study integrated concepts from upper echelons, group process and social cognition theories to investigate how demographic diversity and group processes influence strategic consensus within the top management team (TMT), where strategic consensus is defined as the degree to which individual mental models of strategy overlap. Data from 76 high‐technology firms in the United States and Ireland were used to examine three alternative models. The results showed that while demographic diversity alone did have effects on strategic consensus the overall fit of the model was not strong. Adding two intervening group process variables, interpersonal conflict and agreement‐seeking, to the model greatly improved the overall relationship with strategic consensus. For the most part, TMT diversity had negative effects on strategic consensus. The model with superior fit showed both direct and indirect effects of diversity on strategic consensus. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.