Strategic consensus and performance: the role of strategy type and market‐related dynamism

This paper examines the link between consensus among senior managers and performance at the SBU level and considers factors which may moderate the strength of this relationship. Using data from a cross‐national study in three industry sectors, the authors find that consensus increases the performance of the SBU in the case of a differentiation strategy but not in the case of a low‐cost strategy. Additionally, the relationship between consensus on a differentiation strategy and performance is negatively influenced by dynamism of the market. This research thus clarifies and extends prior consensus research by indicating the conditions under which consensus positively affects performance. For managers, our results indicate that investing managerial time in obtaining consensus is more important for a differentiation than for a low‐cost strategy and is particularly important when using a differentiation strategy in a stable environment. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于构建与维系组织间信任与共识关系的信息技术应用——一个体现共赢优势和共享利益的个案研究

追踪企业信息化失败的实例可以发现,作为委托方的企业与作为实施方的IT企业之间无法取得谅解,从而导致实施方的信息技术不具“适配性”和“有效性”,是目前企业信息化建设中的主要问题。企业信息化过程体现为一种组织间的互动关系,信息技术的应用取决于组织间的信任与共识。信息技术作为信息化过程中重要的静态资源,需要双方在互动中构建与维系彼此间信任和共识的关系,并由此发展为可持续的动态竞争能力,才能在企业中得到最佳应用。     

Analysts’ recommendations: from which signal does the market take its lead?

The stock market may respond to the difference between an analyst’s recommendation and that analyst’s previous recommendation and/or to the difference between the analyst’s recommendation and the consensus recommendation. We show that for the short-term market response the former is the clearer signal when both are examined simultaneously. We also show that the market’s reaction is strongly influenced by the analyst’s reputation, the divergence of opinion among analysts and the number of analysts following the stock. Previous studies have been hampered by having a low proportion of negative recommendations. We overcome this deficiency by studying the Australian market, in which institutional differences lead to analysts releasing many more negative recommendations.

产业集群辨识方法综述

以产业集群内涵的厘清为基础,系统论述并评价了产业集群辨识中所运用到的各种方法,认为:专家意见法、产业感知法和企业访谈法都具有针对性强、能够收集难以统计的时新信息等特点,但依赖于专家等个体感性认知,系统数据收集困难,结论普适化受限;多元统计聚类法透视出产业间重要的依存关系,但部门全覆盖及产业在集群间截然分组不符实际;主成分分析法辨识结果相对理想,但数理解释牵强;Czamanski法逻辑严密,突出集群内部产业间的相互关联,但对支撑性部门雷同的集群处理待改善;共识集群法所体现出来的综合集成理念值得借鉴。最后总结,集群辨识宜继续开发共识集群法所提供的多种分析整合的做法,量化研究为主,定性修正为辅,同时应增加对空间维度的考虑。     

How to identify leadership potential: Development and testing of a consensus model

Building on two studies, the current article responds to urgent calls in the literature for more empirical research on how to identify leadership potential. Based on an extensive review of the 1986–2010 literature, and applying a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques, we developed a model of leadership potential consisting of four quadrants: Analytical skills (containing the factors Intellectual curiosity, Strategic insight, Decision making, and Problem solving); Learning agility (containing the factors Willingness to learn, Emotional intelligence, and Adaptability); Drive (containing the factors Results orientation, Perseverance, and Dedication); and Emergent leadership (containing the factors Motivation to lead, Self‐promotion, and Stakeholder sensitivity). Notably, the developed model steers clear from some of the typical issues that tend to hinder valid assessments of leadership potential (i.e., the confound between performance and potential, as well as that between leadership potential and successful, mature leadership). Furthermore, high consensus was found between top managers, line managers, and HR managers about the practical relevance of the proposed model. The article concludes with some specific future avenues for research and practice. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

What determines the value of recommendation change? A preliminary analysis

This article determines the condition under which recommendation changes relative to consensus recommendation and recommendation changes relative to analyst’s previous recommendation are valuable. We show that recommendation upgrades (downgrades) relative to consensus recommendation are followed by significantly positive (negative) short-term returns whenever consensus recommendation represents convergence of analysts’ opinions. We also show that as the standard deviation associated with consensus recommendation increase, the value of recommendation changes reduce significantly. This article also shows that recommendation upgrades (downgrades) relative to analyst’s previous recommendation are followed by significantly positive (negative) short-term returns whenever interval between two consecutive recommendations is relatively short. We also show that, as the interval between two consecutive recommendations increase, the value of recommendation changes reduce significantly. Our results are robust across various subsamples based on size and region.     

后金融危机时代中美战略互信探讨

经历了本轮金融危机的洗礼,中美两国的态势对比已经发生了一些变化。其对两国、区域乃至全球事务都产生了深远的影响。如何从战略宏观层面增进互信,维持双边关系的稳定,成为了当下两国所面临的一个重要课题。本文主要通过介绍中美战略互信的概念与背景,并从政治、经济以及军事三个层面分析当前中美战略互信现状,旨在探讨深化中美战略互信的对策,并得出相应结论。     

Rational Risk Perception: Utopia or Dystopia?

Societal conflicts with regard to risk management are common. The public has different beliefs than many experts and administrators with regard to such issues as the citing of a repository for spent nuclear fuel or whether genetically modified organisms should be allowed to enter the human food chain. As a result, political tensions arise and there may be a skew allocation of resources for risk mitigation. The question raised in the article is if a consensus society is possible and desirable. If views converge on high risk beliefs, the cost would be very high as well. If views converge on low risks, some hazards could be neglected and environmental damage considerable, as used to be the case in the Former Soviet Union and other socialist countries which lacked a free press. A consensus society is neither possible nor desirable. No party has access to the final truth with regard to risks and hazards; diversity is an asset.     

Risk communication and citizen engagement: what to expect from dialogue

Despite the last few decades’ devotion to deliberative methods in risk communication, many studies point to how important challenges arise when citizens are engaged in public dialogue. Since the era of enlightenment public dialogue has occupied a position as a normative ideal for political governance. But ideals are social constructions that have a tendency to direct attention away from underlying conflicts. The concept of dialogue is no exception, and exemplified by the Danish solution to dealing with public scepticism in relation to technological controversies, the internationally acclaimed ‘consensus conference’, the paper seeks to offer a better understanding of the contemporary use of the concept of dialogue as well as its ancient roots. The paper argues that behind the aspirations for deliberation lie two opposing models of dialogue. When these two models encounter in deliberative processes, their different presumptions about the role of communication symmetry are likely to appear. This points to how the models hold very different expectations as to the dialogical outcome, thus imposing some fundamental conflicts regarding the political efficacy of citizen engagement as a strategy for bridging the gap between expert and lay attitudes to societal risks.     

虚拟货币流通的法律关系与私法保护

由于法律规范供给的不足以及对区块链技术认识的欠缺,以虚拟货币为标的物的民事纠纷裁判结果存在巨大差异。中国人民银行等部门出台的行政规章并未否定虚拟货币本身的合法性,否定的是其作为货币流通的合法性,而非以货币身份流通的虚拟货币应当受到私法保护。“一刀切”地将虚拟货币定性为物权客体、货币、债权、数据或者网络虚拟财产均难以实现逻辑和理论上的周延,在既有法律规范框架下应肯定虚拟货币的财产价值,并以无体物为其具体存在形式。在交易关系中,虚拟货币与商品或者服务交换时,应认定为互易关系;虚拟货币与法定货币交换时,应认定为买卖关系。虚拟货币持有者所享有的权益属于民事利益而非民事权利,他人侵害虚拟货币持有者权益时,虽然无法受到物权保护,但仍应获得侵权救济。在虚拟货币交易或者侵权行为中,虚拟货币损失的计算应参考“共识机制”群体所认可的价格。