Suzumura‐consistent relations: An overview

This paper provides a brief introduction to the use and usefulness of Suzumura consistency, a coherence requirement for binary relations that weakens transitivity. The property was introduced by Suzumura in the context of collective choice but, as demonstrated in some recent contributions, its applicability reaches beyond the boundaries of social‐choice theory. In addition to a summary of its mathematical underpinnings, some recent applications in individual and collective decision‐making are provided. Several examples are employed to illustrate the property and how it distinguishes itself from alternative weakenings of transitivity such as quasi‐transitivity or acyclicity.     

林业行政强制立法与《行政强制法》的吻合度分析

林业行政强制制度是我国行政强制法律制度体系的重要组成部分,直接关系到依法治林及林农合法权益保护。我国的林业法律、行政法规和部门规章在木材运输管理、植物检疫和植物新品种保护等三个领域创设了16项林业行政强制行为。通过对林业行政强制立法的实证分析和理论分析得知,除由规章设定的＂通知品种权人缴纳滞纳金＂这一行政强制执行方式以外,我国的15项林业行政强制立法与《行政强制法》的规定相吻合。《森林法实施条例》对《森林法》中＂有权制止＂这一＂暧昧的制定法＂解释为＂暂扣木材＂,是一种合理的行政解释裁量,应予尊重;而综观《森林法》的全部规定可以发现,森林公安机关可以成为＂暂扣木材＂这一行政强制措施的适格实施主体,这一发现得到了法律实践的验证。     

Impact of Consistency in Customer Relationship Management on E-Commerce Shopper Preferences

Customer Relationship Management (CRM) in e-commerce is concerned with retaining the existing customers on a long-term basis, motivating them to come back to shop for more and to talk positively to their peers about the products and services provided. Fourteen items have been identified in a developed questionnaire to measure CRM factors in consistency of customer treatment. They are consistencies of: price-quoting, steps to execute a transaction, design of the shopping Web page, site navigation, promotions offered, indication of in-stock products, product variety, alternative product suggestions, fraud protection, presented guarantees involving the product, fairness of the site, help offered, return policies, and personal information. To determine the validity of the items, 100 e-commerce experts from academia were presented the questionnaire and asked to rate the importance of the individual items. The developed tool had a Cronbach's Alpha internal consistency value of 0.81. A multivariate analysis was conducted to cluster the aspects of consistency in CRM. For this purpose, two factors were identified: Technical and Customer Treatment Factors. The individual Cronbach's Alpha values were 0.84 for Treatment Factor and 0.74 for Technical Factor. The analysis indicated that the Technical Factor included the consistencies of shopping steps, site design, and navigation, while the Customer Treatment Factor included the consistencies of promotions, in-stock indication, product variety, fraud protection, presented guarantees, customer fairness, and return policies. Based on the analysis, 10 guidelines for Consistency in CRM were produced. The guidelines can be applied to Business-to-Consumer (B2C) e-commerce sites as part of their CRM policy.     

MEAN‐VARIANCE POLICY FOR DISCRETE‐TIME CONE‐CONSTRAINED MARKETS: TIME CONSISTENCY IN EFFICIENCY AND THE MINIMUM‐VARIANCE SIGNED SUPERMARTINGALE MEASURE

The discrete‐time mean‐variance portfolio selection formulation, which is a representative of general dynamic mean‐risk portfolio selection problems, typically does not satisfy time consistency in efficiency (TCIE), i.e., a truncated precommitted efficient policy may become inefficient for the corresponding truncated problem. In this paper, we analytically investigate the effect of portfolio constraints on the TCIE of convex cone‐constrained markets. More specifically, we derive semi‐analytical expressions for the precommitted efficient mean‐variance policy and the minimum‐variance signed supermartingale measure (VSSM) and examine their relationship. Our analysis shows that the precommitted discrete‐time efficient mean‐variance policy satisfies TCIE if and only if the conditional expectation of the density of the VSSM (with respect to the original probability measure) is nonnegative, or once the conditional expectation becomes negative, it remains at the same negative value until the terminal time. Our finding indicates that the TCIE property depends only on the basic market setting, including portfolio constraints. This motivates us to establish a general procedure for constructing TCIE dynamic portfolio selection problems by introducing suitable portfolio constraints.     

On the Internal Consistency of Stock Market Forecasts

Using the Livingston survey data, we test internal consistency restrictions on short-term, medium-term, and long-term stock market forecasts of the S&P 500®. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a forecast formation process featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find some weak evidence of internal inconsistency of medium-term forecasts with long-term forecasts.     

基于动态视角的商业模式创新路径与内部一致性分析

在企业成长的不同阶段,其商业模式也在发生不同程度的变革,从而体现出商业模式创新的动态性特征。针对大多数基于静态视角的商业模式创新研究,从动态视角分析商业模式的创新路径和内部要素的调整,并提出了商业模式动态创新路径逻辑框架。同时,以三达膜科技股份有限公司作为案例。基于逻辑框架,描述了企业商业模式动态创新路径,并基于转换时间和转换程度勾画了企业商业模式变革过程,同时分析了企业商业模式创新过程中的内部一致性。     

透过S-CAD分析框架回顾土地垂直管理政策

研究目的：评估与分析2004年实施的国土垂直管理制度效果,并提供政策建议以提高土地行政管理效率。研究方法：S-CAD政策分析方法与部分土地行政管理数据的量化分析相结合。研究结果：通过系统化梳理国土垂直管理政策从目标到结果的逻辑链条,发现垂直管理政策的目标与手段、手段与价值观/立场存在逻辑上的不一致性,手段对目标的实现上也存在不充分性。研究结论：垂直管理政策在制度设计上的目标与手段不一致,造成了国土系统机构改革的效果不佳,政策设计时应该更注重从中央政府角度出发的政策目标、手段以及预期结果的一致性问题。     

论广告风格

广告风格是一个品牌独特的特征和标志,是广告创作的一个重要部分,也是一个长期被业界、学术界忽视的课题。什么是广告风格?它怎样分类?如何确立广告风格?应当确立什么样的广告风格?广告风格对于广告的意义体现在哪里?本文将在对国内外经典广告案例进行综合分析的基础上,回答以上问题,并对当今存在的广告风格相关问题进行讨论。     

Optimal policy in Markov-switching rational expectations models

In this paper we consider the optimal quadratic control problem of Markov-switching linear rational expectation models. These models are general and flexible tools for modelling not only regime but also model or parameter uncertainty. We show, first, how to find the solution of a Markov-switching linear rational expectation model. Based on this solution we then show how to apply dynamic programming to find the optimal time-consistent policy and the resulting Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium. Suitable modifications of the algorithm allow to deal with the (non-RE) case in which the policymaker and the private sector hold different beliefs or probabilities over regime change. We also show how the optimisation procedure can be employed to obtain the optimal policy under commitment. As an illustration we compute the optimal policy in a small open economy subject to stochastic structural breaks in some of its key parameters.     

论社会主义生产关系条件下投资和消费的一致性

投资和消费是关系一国宏观经济发展的重要经济变量,是两个极为重要的国民经济问题。以往对二者关系的解读,只是分析了投资和消费的一般属性;在不同生产关系条件下,特别是在社会主义生产关系和资本主义生产关系条件下,投资和消费的之间的关系又各具有其特殊性。