Combining quality and quantity. A psychometric evaluation of the self-anchoring scale

In this study a psychometric comparison is made between a category rating scale with fixed anchors and a self-anchoring category rating scale where respondents themselves define the end anchors by referring to their personal experiences with the construct being measured. A student-satisfaction questionnaire was administered to 301 undergraduate students on two test moments separated by a 1-month period. Both types of category rating scales were crossed with both test moments according to a 2 ×  2 mixed factorial design. Our results show that respondents perceive the construct being measured in the same way with both rating scales. A comparison concerning different indicators of reliability, i.e. test–retest reliability, internal consistency and the error variances associated with each item, also failed to find a difference between both rating scales. In a last analysis it is demonstrated that using a self-anchoring rating scale or a rating scale with fixed anchors has a small but significant effect on the ratings of the respondents. In conclusion, a self anchoring scale may be the scale of choice if additional qualitative information from the anchors is warranted, but when quantitative comparisons between groups are required, rating scales with fixed anchors are preferable thanks to their ease of use.     

Living in an imaginary world that looks real

In the paper we show – using standard approaches, general equilibrium modeling and the assumption of complete rationality – that the macroeconomic environment is endogenous and is indeterminate. Specifically, it is argued – without resorting to sunspot type arguments – that microeconomic fundamentals do not suffice to characterize the economy at the macro level. In particular, we show how perceptions of rational agents of the workings of the economy (a) shape the environment, (b) affect the environment sufficiently to ensure that rational economic agents find the observed environment consistent with their beliefs even though it is not. As a by-product, we illustrate that endogenous macro uncertainty can arise as an outcome if rational economic agents whose expectations are anchored on endogenous variables expect them to arise. Finally, we show that systematic errors can persist indefinitely under rationality.     

On the internal consistency of short-term,medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts

We derive internal consistency restrictions on short-, medium- and long-term oil price forecasts. We then analyse whether oil price forecasts extracted from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) satisfy these internal consistency restrictions. We find that neither short-term forecasts are consistent with medium-term forecasts nor that medium-term forecasts are consistent with long-term forecasts. Using a more complex expectation formation structure featuring a distributed lag structure, however, we find stronger evidence of internal consistency of medium-term forecasts with long-term forecasts.     

BETTER THAN DYNAMIC MEAN‐VARIANCE: TIME INCONSISTENCY AND FREE CASH FLOW STREAM

As the dynamic mean‐variance portfolio selection formulation does not satisfy the principle of optimality of dynamic programming, phenomena of time inconsistency occur, i.e., investors may have incentives to deviate from the precommitted optimal mean‐variance portfolio policy during the investment process under certain circumstances. By introducing the concept of time inconsistency in efficiency and defining the induced trade‐off, we further demonstrate in this paper that investors behave irrationally under the precommitted optimal mean‐variance portfolio policy when their wealth is above certain threshold during the investment process. By relaxing the self‐financing restriction to allow withdrawal of money out of the market, we develop a revised mean‐variance policy which dominates the precommitted optimal mean‐variance portfolio policy in the sense that, while the two achieve the same mean‐variance pair of the terminal wealth, the revised policy enables the investor to receive a free cash flow stream (FCFS) during the investment process. The analytical expressions of the probability of receiving FCFS and the expected value of FCFS are derived.     

Indifference to profit-sharing is consistent

The incentive for a firm unilaterally to switch from a conventional wage to profit-sharing is analyzed for a duopoly as a function of the degree of market power. The point of indifference is shown to be the consistent-conjectures mode of conduct; more competitive firms will not switch while less competitive firms will switch. A proportional tax on corporate profits will not alter the incentive of a firm to adopt or reject profit-sharing.This paper embodies the views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve System or of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.     

An investment contest to influence environmental policy

In an investment contest for environmental policy, polluters and victims of pollution invest in an increase of their marginal benefits of pollution and environmental quality, respectively. These investments influence time-consistent environmental policy. Investments will exceed their optimal level. The more victims there are, the lower aggregate investment, the lower payoffs for the victims and the higher payoffs for the polluters. The more polluters there are, the higher aggregate investment and the lower payoffs for polluters and victims. Asymmetries between polluter and victim result in less overinvestment and bias environmental policy in favour of the less productive side.     

The recursive approach to time inconsistency

We introduce a new class of finite horizon stochastic decision problems in which preferences change over time, and provide a proof of the existence of a recursively optimal strategy. Recursive optimization techniques dominate many areas of economic dynamics. However, in decision problems in which tastes change over time, the solution technique most commonly applied is not recursive, but rather strategic (subgame perfection). In this paper we argue in favor of the recursive approach, and we take the necessary theoretical steps to make the recursive methodology applicable.     

多种评价方法在投资环境评价中的综合应用

本文针对过去在应用不同方法作投资环境评价时，往往出现评价结果不一致性的现象，提出了一种多方法综合应用的系统评价方法，该方法克服了以往只用一种方法评价的片面性，提高了评价的精度和可靠性，并以我国19个副省级以上城市为例，应用该方法对其投资环境进行了综合评价。     

贫困大学生心理健康与自我和谐的关系研究

通过对贫困大学生的心理健康状况与自我和谐之间关系的研究，希望为贫困大学生的心理健康教育与辅导提供新的思路、方法。调查结果显示贫困大学生的心理健康状况和自我与经验的不和谐显著正相关；与自我的灵活性负相关；与自我的刻板性正相关。自我与经验的不和谐、自我的刻板性能在一定程度上预测贫困大学生心理症状的变异量。由此也可得出自我和谐程度对心理健康有显著影响。     

长三角房价变化的生态共生性研究——基于上海、杭州和南京的实证

本文首先对上海、杭州和南京的房屋销售价格的动态一致性进行了验证;接着分析了这三座城市房屋销售价格具有动态一致性的现实基础,结果表明:这三座城市的房屋销售价格在自身的累积效应和房价溢出效应作用下表现出很强的联动效应,任一城市可以依据其余两座城市房价的变动和贡献度来预估自己的房价走势。本文的结论也说明了区域内不同城市的房价变动具有生态共生性,有很强的现实意义。