基于复杂网络的再保险市场系统性风险研究

近年来我国保险业快速发展,部分规模较大、复杂度较高的保险机构因与其他保险机构关联度高而居于再保险网络的核心,决定了再保险市场的系统性风险传播机制,对我国金融体系整体稳健性以及服务实体经济的能力具有重要影响,为此,迫切需要对系统重要性保险机构和保险业系统性风险进行识别判断。本文将再保险市场统计意义上的结论运用到风险传染动力学模型的构建中,使校准后的模型更贴近实际,研究了再保险国际化比率、破产阈值、紧急折价抛售系数、保险赔付占保险损失比率等因素对再保险市场稳健性的影响。运用最大熵理论解决了再保险交易对手方的信息不完全问题,寻求再保险转移矩阵和我国保险业发生系统性风险时总赔付额的临界点,研究发现我国的再保险复杂网络中有可能存在再保险旋涡,部分资金规模庞大且偿付能力充足的保险公司广泛进行再保险业务,导致风险集聚,但发生再保险旋涡的概率极其低,再保险复杂网络整体上十分稳健。论文探索了再保险市场的风险传播机制,论证了"联系太紧密而不能倒"的保险机构相比于"太大而不能倒"的保险机构,一旦倒闭对再保险市场稳健性的影响更大,为识别系统重要性保险机构,及早发现并防范保险业系统性风险提供了新的方法和思路。     

中国保险业具有持续的经济增长促进作用吗?——基于期限结构视角的时变参数研究

保险业促进经济发展的相关理论及由实践经验数据所得结论并未达成一致共识,部分学者认为保险业的发展有助于推动经济增长;同时也有部分学者认为保险业的经济助推作用并不明显。本文基于1999~20丨7年财险和寿险月度数据,运用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)研究保险业对经济增长的促进作用,得出如下结论:整体上,保险业对经济增长能够产生促进效应,并且随着保险业的发展,促进作用愈发显著;财险和寿险的发展均对经济增长产生显著地直接促进作用,在不同的期限结构时点,其持续程度与显著程度不同;此外,保险业对经济增长还存在持续的间接促进作用。该结论对于新常态下的保险监管政策制定者存在一定借鉴意义。     

Global competition and cooperation in the electronics industry: the case of X-ray equipment, 1900–1970

The electronics industry is often regarded by scholars as an example of a sector driven by endless technological innovation and major competition between a few large companies, thus embodying the common view whereby the free market leads firms to innovate. On the other hand, some business historians have also emphasised that, since the beginning of the twentieth century, most of these companies were engaged in various international cartel agreements. The business and economic history literature on this industry reveals a clear-cut divide between the inter-war years and the post-war era. In this paper, however, we argue that technical and commercial cooperation between large electronics companies continued in various forms despite the spread of anti-trust policies after 1945. In this case study, we explore the global X-ray equipment industry from its beginnings around 1900 to the advent of the CT scanner in the early 1970s. The paper focuses on Siemens and Philips, the two largest manufacturers of radiological equipment. It demonstrates that both companies pursued their commercial and technical cooperation at least until the 1970s, although it was much less overt as during the interwar years.     

城市群产业协调发展研究综述

通过回顾国内外城市群产业协调发展的文献,梳理城市群产业协调发展的相关概念内涵,总结协调发展的研究内容和调控措施,发现城市群产业协调发展概念缺乏明确的界定,理论发展滞后于新形势下不断丰富的协调内容。提出未来需继续构建并完善城市群产业协调发展理论体系,拓展城市群产业协调发展评价指标体系。     

大理乳业发展现状及问题研究

作为大理州传统优势产业的乳业承担着稳定经济发展大局,促进农民收入,保障贫困户稳定脱贫的重要任务。首先对大理州乳业的现实发展状况进行了描述;然后分析了当前制约大理州乳业发展的影响因素;最后通过现状和问题的探讨,试图从完善奶牛良种繁育体系、提高技术创新能力、加大资金投入、强化政府支持力度、提升奶农环保意识、加强销售终端建设六个方面提出促进大理州乳产业健康发展的对策建议。     

基于生态位理论的弱势旅游地发展态势及开发策略研究 ——以粤北山区为例

为优化粤北山区产业结构调整,促进区域旅游经济均衡协调发展,收集2013—2017年粤北山区5个城市旅游资源、旅游市场、社会经济、生态环境四大维度的统计数据,运用生态位理论,对其旅游生态位发展态势、生态位扩充程度进行评测与排序。从分析结果可见,韶关综合生态位排名第一,为粤北山区旅游城市中的双核心城市。韶关、梅州旅游业发展态势良好,处于扩充状态,其区域旅游业影响力日益增强。通过粤北山区旅游生态位综合分析,可见要实现区域协调均衡发展,重点在于搭建区域旅游一体化合作平台,致力于产业集聚与优势互补,注重旅游经济投入与产出比优化,从而实现弱势旅游地的突围与转型。     

福建省金融产业集聚对区域经济增长影响的实证分析

金融已经成为现代经济的核心,特别是在市场经济中,金融发展与经济增长之间的耦合关系成为不少学者关注的重点。利用福建省1980——2017年的相关统计资料进行了实证研究,发现福建省的金融产业集聚对区域经济增长有促进作用。为推动福建省实现机制活、产业优、百姓富、生态美的新蓝图,金融业的发展必须提供有力支撑和保障。     

宁夏工程技术研究中心建设实践与评价

工程技术研究中心是区域创新体系的重要组成部分,对区域经济和社会发展具有着重要作用。在全面梳理宁夏现有工程技术研究中心的基础上,从中心的工程化条件、工程化能力与水平、工程化效果、开放与交流、运行与管理等方面对工程中心的建设成效进行总结分析,并提出存在的问题和对策建议。     

浅论全面建成小康社会视域下的协调发展

协调发展观点作为整体发展思想的一部分由来已久,随着经济社会的发展,对于协调的重视程度也在不断加深。目前进入全面建成小康社会的决胜时期,作为全面小康题中应有之义的协调更是内涵丰富,意义重大,是建成全面小康的重要组成部分。它不仅包涵人与自然、区域、城乡的协调发展,还包括物质与精神两大文明、经济社会和国防领域间的协同发展。必须坚持把协调发展贯穿于发展各方面、全过程,才能使协调发展理念在促进新时代经济社会发展,做好全面小康这篇大文章上发挥出其时代价值。     

Does Multinationality Affect the Propensity to Innovate? An Analysis of the Third UK Community Innovation Survey

The paper is developed at the interface between internationalization and innovation studies. It utilizes data on innovation from the UK Community Innovation Surveys 3 and 2 (CIS3 and CIS2) to assess whether multinationality affects the innovation propensity of surveyed enterprises. The indicators of innovation propensity—our dependent variables—are taken from the following CIS sets of variables: innovation outputs; innovation inputs; innovation outcomes (patent applications); innovation continuity/sustainability. The latter element is considered to be the ability of the enterprise to sustain innovation over a long period of time and the relevant variable is derived from both CIS3 and 2 data. This allows the paper to introduce dynamic elements into the analysis. Four hypotheses are developed and tested. Our main hypothesis states that multinationality per se (i.e. being part of a multinational company network) affects the propensity to innovate. We also test for three sub‐hypotheses related to characteristics of multinationality: belonging to a group vs being independent; degree of multinationality; being part of a foreign vs domestic multinational. The results show that all those CIS enterprises that belong to a multinational corporation—whether UK or foreign—are more likely to exhibit innovation propensity; they are also more likely to engage in innovation activities on a continuous basis.