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91.
Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Peter G.M. van der Heijden Maarten Cruyff Hans C. van Houwelingen 《Statistica Neerlandica》2003,57(3):289-304
The truncated Poisson regression model is used to arrive at point and interval estimates of the size of two offender populations, i.e. drunk drivers and persons who illegally possess firearms. The dependent capture–recapture variables are constructed from Dutch police records and are counts of individual arrests for both violations. The population size estimates are derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution, and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model. These assumptions are discussed in detail, and the tenability of the second assumption is assessed by evaluating the marginal residuals and performing tests on overdispersion. For the firearms example, the second assumption seems to hold well, but for the drunk drivers example there is some overdispersion. It is concluded that the method is useful, provided it is used with care. 相似文献
92.
Recent approaches to sustainable development leave much room for policies at a local level. In fact, it is becoming evident that targets such as increasing resource productivity, preserving natural cycles, or extending the present level of welfare, are best pursued within the confines of a local area. In particular, environmental changes are best brought about by considering local systems of firms as cornerstones of cooperative strategies and using data on materials and energy use in physical terms. In this paper, an enterprise input–output model is developed for an industrial district, i.e. a local group of firms specialized in the production of a single final output. The model allows for a detailed quantitative analysis of materials and energy flows and the consequent generation of waste and pollution. As a planning tool, the model may be used to evaluate alternative scenarios, such as the possibility of re- using waste taking account of sustainability requirements. An empirical case study applies the model to an industrial district in Southern Italy producing leather sofas. 相似文献
93.
This article discusses changes in approach to the study of business relationships, and sees the paradigm concept as constituting an inadequate basis for describing gradually evolving changes in the perception of business. The frequent references to paradigms appear to focus more on state aspects than on change aspects of theory building. The article attempts to trace some of the changes in the perception of markets preceding the emergence of network theories, and relates the presence of an interactional approach to business studies to the concept of problem shifts (Lakatos). The development of interactional approaches in marketing is seen as representing a shift away from theory building commonly found in economics and organizational theory. Changes in the approach to the study of business relationships are interpreted as theoretical or empirical problem shifts, and are thus related to the a priori and a posteriori relevance of the continual evolution of alternative business theories. The article explores some of the epistemological relevance of the network theories to the study of market relationships, and the potential impact on continual changes in approach to the study of markets. 相似文献
94.
95.
Repeated measurements often are analyzed by multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). An alternative approach is provided by multilevel analysis, also called the hierarchical linear model (HLM), which makes use of random coefficient models. This paper is a tutorial which indicates that the HLM can be specified in many different ways, corresponding to different sets of assumptions about the covariance matrix of the
repeated measurements. The possible assumptions range from the very restrictive compound symmetry model to the unrestricted
multivariate model. Thus, the HLM can be used to steer a useful middle road between the two traditional methods for analyzing repeated measurements. Another
important advantage of the multilevel approach to analyzing repeated measures is the fact that it can be easily used also
if the data are incomplete. Thus it provides a way to achieve a fully multivariate analysis of repeated measures with incomplete
data.
This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
96.
Yoshiharu Takamura 《Socio》2003,37(2):85-102
As a national project of Japan, plans for the relocation of several government agencies out of Tokyo have been ongoing. This paper is concerned with the problem of site selection for this project. The National Land Agency, the agency responsible for this project, has declared that the process of site selection should be rational, open to the public and easily understandable. In an effort to meet these requirements, we propose a consensus-making method for reaching a group decision, based on a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the Assurance Region model of data envelopment analysis (DEA). Several strategic uses of these methodologies, e.g., Delphi procedures, are also discussed. Based on these analyses, the “Wise Men” Committee for deciding the best site has chosen two from among ten contenders, one from the North-East and the other from the Central part of Japan, as candidates for the best relocation site. We could not discriminate between the two with respect to the multiple criteria chosen for evaluating sites. The Committee recommended the two sites to the Prime Minister at the end of December 1999. The Prime Minister reported this conclusion to the Diet. This topic is currently the focus of political discussions in the Diet. In this report, the authors summarize the decision-making processes that the Wise Men Committee followed, putting emphasis on the methodological aspects. 相似文献
97.
结合对简单网络管理协议(SNMP)的研究,分析了Agent 网管代理开发包,并介绍了利用Agnet 实现IP电话系统中SNMP代理的过程。 相似文献
98.
中国和新加坡产业内贸易与规模经济存在着一种长期的均衡关系,新加坡生产企业的规模经济对产业内贸易的推动作用大于中国,中国和新加坡生产企业的规模经济与产业内贸易存在单向因果关系,即规模经济促进产业内贸易. 相似文献
99.
对企业技术创新战略决策进行了两阶段分析,并采用交易费用理论对创新企业技术创新来源决策进行了分析,认为企业内部技术创新是企业吸收外部技术的基础,大部分企业技术创新将走自主创新与引进创新相结合的道路。 相似文献
100.
Zhang Hongliang Wu diyu Ma Jianwei 《生态经济(英文版)》2008,4(1):49-56
The supreme obstacle for sustainable development of natural resources is the scarecity, bottleneck. So how to promote the sustainable utilizing and increase the using efficiency of natural resources is worth studying. This paper suggests that we should improve the model and means of evaluating method and value management based on th~ theory of natural resource compensation. This paper discusses the User Cost Method based on the microeeonomicaspect which can change the evaluating method for natural resources. From the perspective of value managemen model, we should use the User Cost Method to realize the linkage and integration of micro and macro eompensation for natural resources. Based on the evaluating and aecounting idea User Cost Method, this paper presents a theo. retical framework to harmonize and link micro and macro compensation for natural resources. At present, we should seek the new approach and method to manage natural resources, so can we realize the capitalization managemen focusing on the vahte management for natural resources. 相似文献