日本国债：安全资产还是风险潜在

金融危机后全球安全资产减少,使日本国债地位相对改善,成为世界金融市场的避险工具之一.但由于日本长期政府债务净额占GDP之比居高不下,国债信用已经受到损毁,主权信用评级被下调.从日本国内资金循环特征看,日本企业转变为储蓄大户的原因不是企业的盈利增加,而是由于资产负债表的调整压力使投资意愿降低,因此,日本政府只有不断增发国债来弥补筹资主体的缺位;日本国债期限结构的短期化和日益增长的利息负担使其面临的市场利率风险加大;同时,日本中央银行购买国债规模膨胀,不断冲击财政纪律的约束,财政赤字货币化风险隐藏其中.长期来看,日本泡沫经济崩溃后,资产去泡沫化的过程也正是国债泡沫化的过程.在日本财政改革前景未见定论,企业的投资需求尚未恢复的前提下,日本国债的可持续性存在巨大风险.     

工商银行信贷流程改造研究

信贷经营作为商业银行的核心业务之一,其流程的科学性、合理性将直接关系到工商银行对优质信贷市场变化的响应效率和综合竞争能力.本文运用分工理论和机制理论等相关理论,总结国内外优秀商业银行信贷流程的先进做法,在深入调研的基础上,剖析工商银行现有信贷流程的弊端,明确信贷流程改造的目标,着重从授权机制、组织架构以及岗位职能设置等角度,提出工商银行信贷流程改造的对策建议,旨在进一步优化信贷流程,防范风险,提高效率,促进全行信贷业务全面、协调、稳健发展.     

信贷经营形势与中国工商银行信贷经营策略

信贷业务在当前和今后一段时期内仍将是我国商业银行的核心业务和主要利润来源,而当前宏观、微观等诸多方面的变化使得银行的信贷经营面临着严峻的挑战.本文从分析江苏分行的信贷经营现状与矛盾问题入手,重点剖析了问题成因和经营形势,然后在对国外银行信贷经营经验进行借鉴的基础上,针对江苏分行的实际情况,提出了制定信贷战略规划、提升信贷经营理念、健全信贷政策体系、开展品牌建设与营销、实行全过程风险管理、积极开展信贷创新六个方面的对策建议.     

国际化BPO会计人才培养模式探讨

中国的BPO市场在未来几年将呈现十分强劲的发展势头,其中的财务与会计职能外包业务也成为BPO市场发展最快的领域之一。只有基于学历教育与资格认证整合的国际化BPO会计人才培养模式,才能适应迅速发展的BPO市场的人才需求。这一新模式需要从培养目标定位、课程体系规划和师资队伍建设三方面对传统教学模式进行变革。     

A Multicriteria Approach for Modeling Small Enterprise Credit Rating: Evidence from China

ABSTRACT

As the engine of China’s economy, small enterprises have been the central to the country’s economic development. However, given the characteristics of the small enterprises loan (i.e., short borrowing period, large volume, small amount and incomplete information), it is extremely challenging for financial institutions to assess their creditworthiness. Thus, it seriously delays and restricts the financing access for small enterprises. In an attempt to relieve the financing difficulty of small enterprises, this article makes use of 687 small wholesale and retail enterprises in a regional commercial bank in China, to establish a credit rating indicator system composed of 17 indicators by using both partial correlation analysis and probit regression. It then utilizes TOPSIS together with fuzzy C-means to score the credit ratings of our sample of small enterprises. With the dual test of default discrimination and ROC curve, the prediction accuracy of the established indicator system has reached 80.10% and 0.917, respectively, indicating the robustness and validity of our credit rating system.     

个人信用保证机制的征信制度和诉讼制度比较研究

征信体系通过建立一种声誉制度,促进人类合作、提高群体成员效用和福利。个人信用保证机制的征信制度和诉讼制度哪个成本更低、相对价值更高需要客观分析。在完全竞争的信贷市场研究场景下,声誉机制有引致合作行为的能力;扩展博弈下,诉讼制度的威胁使得借贷者施加一个高的努力程度,提高了社会总剩余。基于现代信息技术的声誉机制出现以后,存在于每个银行内部的声誉就变成了一个统一、全范围扩展的声誉机制,所以声誉制度比诉讼制度可以获得更高的社会总剩余。     

External constraints and endogenous growth: Why didn't some countries benefit from capital flows?

Empirical evidence on the growth benefits of capital inflows is mixed. The growth benefits accruing from capital inflows also appear to be larger for high savings countries. We explain this phenomenon using an OLG model of endogenous growth in open economies with borrowing constraints that can generate both positive and negative growth effects of capital inflows. The amount an economy can borrow is restricted by an endogenous enforcement constraint. In our setting, with physical capital and a pay-as-you-go pensions system, the steady state is unique. However, it can either be constrained or unconstrained. In a constrained economy, opening up to equity and FDI inflows can be bad for growth because it makes the domestic interest rate too low, which endogenously tightens borrowing constraints. Agents decrease savings and investment in productivity-enhancing activities resulting in lower growth. Results are reversed in an unconstrained economy. We also provide a quantitative analysis of these constraints and some policy implications.     

信息攫取与出口信用保险发展:以中国出口信用保险公司为例

出口信用保险是规避收汇风险的有效途径,信息攫取则是发展出口信用保险的手段之一,对出口信用保险发展起到促进作用。当信息攫取、资本、国际贸易对出口信用保险发展的边际贡献率相同时,出口信用保险增长率达到稳态,并以一个稳定的速率增长。将出口信用保险纳入Ramsey模型,从信息攫取角度分析中国出口信用保险业发展,结论表明,无论长期还是短期,信息攫取对出口信用保险发展都存在显著影响。但出口信用保险行业的信息攫取力度仍有待加强。     

信用修复国际比较研究

在社会信用体系中,信用修复机制是适用失信主体改正自新、为其重塑信用的新方式,是信用惩戒的有机组成.通过梳理信用修复的定义、原则、对象及作用,从信用修复立法、不良信息保存、异议及投诉处理机制、信用修复机构设立等方面比较分析美国、英国、韩国和中国的信用修复机制,同时分析英美在信用修复监管、美韩及中国在诚信教育、韩国及中国在...