Trade Diversification and Crisis Transmission: A Case Study of Thailand

The international trade literature suggests trade concentration is an important factor in the amplification of the global financial crisis. However, the relationship between trade concentration and transmission of the subprime crisis is empirically weak. Thailand is one of the countries with declining reliance on the advanced economies, yet it was greatly affected by the recent crisis. This might result because the formation of global supply chains creates both direct and indirect trade linkages. In this paper, the authors include the effects of both linkages to examine their connection to the transmission of external shocks, as experienced by the Thai economy. If total trade linkages are calculated, Thailand is still found to be highly exposed to advanced markets. Simulation using a computational general equilibrium model also indicates that the country was seriously affected by the financial crisis through indirect channels.     

Corporate Cash Holding in Asia

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of corporate saving in the form of changes in cash holdings for 11 Asian economies using firm‐level data from the Oriana Database for the 2002–2011 period. We find some evidence that cash flow has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings (i.e. that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is positive) and that the positive impact of cash flow on the change in cash holdings is larger and more significant in the case of smaller and presumably more constrained firms than in the case of larger and presumably less constrained firms in both developed and developing economies. Both of these findings corroborate the importance of financial constraints in Asian firms. In addition, we find that the cash flow sensitivity of cash declined after the global financial crisis and that Tobin's q has a positive impact on the change in cash holdings, especially in the case of larger and presumably unconstrained firms.     

中国金融危机法构建的探讨

本次震撼全球的美国金融危机给世人敲响了金融危机不定时爆发的警钟。全球化背景下金融危机的传染性更强、金融风险更大。中国相对脆弱的金融体系需要探索如何防范金融系统性风险,如何健全金融监管体系的制度与法制建设。随着人民币国际化过程深入,制定并颁布《金融危机法》能克服目前金融监管纵向监管体系缺陷,对提高我国金融监管机构应对金融危机能力、稳定金融市场与保增长具有重要意义。     

Which financial stocks did short sellers target in the subprime crisis?

Tracing the SEC ban on the short selling of financial stocks in September 2008, this paper investigates whether such selling activity before the 2008 short ban reflected financial companies’ risk exposure in the subprime crisis. Evidence suggests that short sellers sold short stocks that had the greatest asset and insolvency risk exposures, and that the short selling of financial firms’ stocks was not significantly greater than that of non-financial firms after we match them on firm size and insolvency risk. When the short ban was in effect, the market quality of financial stocks without subprime assets exposure had deteriorated to a larger degree than that of financial companies with subprime assets exposure. The findings imply that such a regulation may mute the market disciplining effects of investors and may also be seen as a counterweight to any perceived macro or systemic risk reduction benefits resulting from such a ban.     

Pitfalls and perils of financial innovation: The use of CDS by corporate bond funds

We use the financial crisis of 2007–2009 as a laboratory to examine the costs and benefits of teams versus single managers in asset management. We find that when a fund uses complex trading strategies involving the use of CDS team-managed funds outperform solo-managed funds. This may be due to the greater diversity of expertise, experience and skill of teams relative to single managers. During the financial crisis, however, the performance premium of teams becomes negative, which may be because of the slower decision times of teams, which are especially costly during times of rapidly changing market conditions.     

新冠肺炎疫情、金融市场震荡与金融危机

新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情在全球快速蔓延后,美国等国家金融市场出现大幅度震荡,历史罕见。金融市场震荡是疫情影响投资者信心,金融市场本身的风险需要释放,以及经济基本面悲观预期等因素共同作用的结果。目前来看,疫情对实体经济造成冲击,疫情应对情况也在很大程度上决定了金融市场震荡是否演化为全球金融危机,国外金融市场震荡对国内金融市场的传导需要审慎理性处理。     

Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal,Ireland and Greece

This paper assesses the impact of Eurobonds on sovereign debt dynamics for selected European member states (Greece, Ireland and Portugal). For each member state, we produce sovereign debt fan charts of (i) a baseline scenario (no Eurobonds) and (ii) a Full-Fledged Eurobond introduction. The key building blocks of our methodology are (i) a debt framework (which embeds the traditional recursive debt equation), (ii) a vector autoregressive model to take into account and parametrise macroeconomic uncertainty and (iii) a fiscal reaction function. Conditional on the absence of moral hazard, we find Eurobonds to be a good instrument to absorb macroeconomic shocks and to diminish uncertainty over future debt forecasts; for Ireland and Portugal, we find debt to be 20 percentage points lower than under our baseline scenario, by 2020.     

Strategic Drift and Strategic Crisis Management of Organization

The research reports how the choice of the organization behavior--strategic drift can lead to strategic crisis as a form of manifestation of a deepening organizational crisis. The research questions whose solution is sought are connected with the relation of strategic drift--strategic crisis--strategic crisis management, in terms of whether the errors in the process of strategic management lead to organizational crises. The results of the historical analysis of the theoretical research and practice in this field show the interdependence among these processes and the reasons for strategic crisis in support of the concept of strategic crisis management and its implementation in business. The study outlines the evolution of the theory of strategic drift, as well as opinions of various scientists on the types of crises, which are perceived as a uniform classification and universal interpretation of the term ＂strategic crisis＂. The organization＇s ＂strategic drift＂ leads to serious organizational crisis which first form that strategic crisis. Practice shows that the management of market leaders often leads to complacency, choosing strategy stability. Soon, as a result of aggressive strategies or implemented innovations of their competitors, they lose their competitive position.     

金融危机下经济民族主义的回归与思辨

在介绍经济民族主义起源与思想本质的基础上,阐述了金融危机下经济民族主义的三种主要手段:保护贸易、保护资金、保护就业。在对经济民族主义展开理性分析的同时,结合金融危机下国际经济民族主义现状提出了我国的应对建议。