This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis

Fiscal policy was more countercyclical during the Covid-19 crisis than in previous (crisis) episodes. This paper presents empirical evidence in favour of a “this time truly is different” moment based on analysing the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy for 28 advanced economies over 1995–2021. Discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020–2021) did more to counteract the downturn – especially in the Eurozone –, as we do not find comparable evidence for countercyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis. Automatic fiscal stabilisers, the non-discretionary domain of fiscal policy, significantly contributed to countercyclical stabilisation during the pandemic.     

The global financial crisis and protectionism: Substitution from tariffs to non-tariff measures

This study empirically investigates the relationships between tariffs and non-tariff measures before and after the global financial crisis (GFC). The panel analysis is based on traded products of 70 countries from 1997 to 2015. For developed countries, we find that tariffs and non-tariff measures were complementary before the crisis, but they became substitutional afterward. We do not find such shift for developing countries. We also run the analysis by income levels and by types of products and observe differential effects of the GFC on the relationship between the two trade policies.     

海归高管能促进企业绿色创新吗——基于中国A股上市公司经验证据

基于2014~2019年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,利用高阶梯队理论通过建立回归模型实证检验了海归高管与企业绿色创新的关系。研究发现：海归高管显著促进了企业的绿色创新;海归高管通过提高企业社会责任和研发投入水平两条路径促进了企业绿色创新活动;从宏观、中观、微观视角探究调节机制后发现,在企业绿色创新活动方面,政府质量、市场竞争与海归高管之间存在互补关系,而内部控制水平与海归高管之间存在替代关系;进一步研究后发现,在国有企业、非重污染行业、直辖市地区、高外部监督水平组中,海归高管对企业绿色创新促进作用更为明显;区分绿色创新类型后发现,海归高管对创新要求较高的公司绿色发明专利促进作用更为明显。     

基于主成分分析的上市公司财务危机预警模型研究

本文以我国上市公司为研究对象,选取2009年被ST的上市公司作为财务危机样本组,共61家,同时选取与财务危机组同行业,资产规模在10%差异之内的61家非财务危机上市公司作为配对样本,共计122家(61组)上市公司的财务数据进行研究。从这61组中随机选取31组配对样本作为学习样本组,用来构建财务困境预测模型,另外30组样本作为检验样本组,用来检验预测模型的有效性。     

金融危机下出口退税率的上调对武汉出口产业的影响

自2008年8月1日起,我国政府连续七次大范围地提高出口退税率,以缓解美国金融危机对我国出口产业的影响。武汉作为中部地区一个以机电产品、船舶、汽车零件为主要出口产品,以欧盟、美国、日本三个受经济危机影响最严重的经济体为主要出口地区的港口城市,并没有因为出口退税的连续上调而及时遏制出口下滑。     

金融危机对我国钢铁业的影响

文章以钢铁产业为例,分析了在金融危机的影响下,钢铁行业2008—2009年的运行态势,探讨了金融危机对我国实体经济钢铁业的影响,以及政府相应的宏观政策调控。金融危机给钢铁行业带来严重冲击的同时也为其产业调整和升级带来了难得的机遇,研究金融危机对钢铁业的影响及探讨其应对出路,对我国经济发展和制造业升级有着重大的现实意义。     

软件重用技术中几个关键问题的探讨

软件危机是指在计算机软件的开发和维护过程中所遇到的一系列严重问题。60年代出现的软件危机导致了有关软件重用的研究。软件重用是指重复使用"为了重用目的而设计的软件"的过程。通过软件重用,在应用系统开发中可以充分利用已有的开发成果,消除了包括分析、设计、编码、测试等在内的许多重复劳动,从而提高了软件开发的效率。同时,通过重用高质量的已有开发成果,避免了重新开发可能引入的错误,从而提高了软件的质量。     

金融危机背景下物流人才培养方向与模式研究

在全球金融危机下,一场新的流通革命在世界范围内正在兴起,物流产业正成为一个新的经济增长点。但是物流人才一直是制约我国物流业发展的一个瓶颈,在新形势下,我们有必要对我国物流人才培养方面的问题进行探讨,让其更好的为我国物流发展服务。首先需要分析研究物流人才培养的意义,然后探讨目前我国在物流人才培养方面面临的问题,最后提出我国物流人才培养的方向和模式。     

Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information

How did DSGE model forecasts perform before, during and after the financial crisis, and what type of off-model information can improve the forecast accuracy? We tackle these questions by assessing the real-time forecast performance of a large DSGE model relative to statistical and judgmental benchmarks over the period from 2000 to 2013. The forecasting performances of all methods deteriorate substantially following the financial crisis. That is particularly evident for the DSGE model’s GDP forecasts, but augmenting the model with a measure of survey expectations made its GDP forecasts more accurate, which supports the idea that timely off-model information is particularly useful in times of financial distress.     

Measuring connectedness of euro area sovereign risk

We introduce a method for measuring the default risk connectedness of euro zone sovereign states using credit default swap (CDS) and bond data. The connectedness measure is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. Due to its predictive nature, it can respond to crisis occurrences more quickly than common in-sample techniques. We determine the sovereign default risk connectedness using both CDS and bond data in order to obtain a more comprehensive picture of the system. We find evidence that there are several observable factors that drive the difference between CDS and bonds, but both data sources still contain specific information for connectedness spill-overs. In general, we can identify countries that impose risk on the system and the respective spill-over channels. Our empirical analysis covers the years 2009–2014, such that the recovery paths of countries exiting EU and IMF financial assistance schemes and the responses to the ECB’s unconventional policy measures can be analyzed.