跨越“中等收入陷阱”的消费率变化轨迹研究--基于东亚、拉美部分国家的启示

2013年我国人均GDP达到6900美元，标志着我国已居于“上中等收入”国家行列，正面临“中等收入陷阱”的威胁。本文基于日本、韩国、巴西和阿根廷的发展历程，考察了“中等收入陷阱”区间下消费率的变化轨迹，认为成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”的消费率特征是：消费率走势呈U型特征，由波动性变化演变为平稳性运行，并大致在人均GDP4000美元形成“消费率拐点”。其中，收入因素对“消费率拐点”的培育与形成具有较大的制约作用。同时文章对比分析了低中等收入阶段我国消费率变化轨迹，认为我国在人均GDP4283美元水平下形成“消费率拐点”，但当前消费需求的充分释放仍面临较强的挑战，迫切需要相应的政策措施来强化“消费率拐点”的形成。     

From goulash communism to goulash populism: the unwanted legacy of Hungarian reform socialism

The systemic change of 1989/1990 is usually identified as the critical juncture in the modern economic history of post-communist economies. While the change itself was indeed a remarkable moment in time, a branching point from which a multitude of new paths originated in most of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe, this was only partially true in the case of Hungary. If a critical juncture is sought for Hungary, it is more likely to be 1968, the year the New Economic Mechanism was launched. By applying the conceptual framework of historical institutionalism, the article argues that what made Hungary unique during the communist era and what rendered its position as a (one-time) frontrunner proved to be a serious constraint after the systemic change. The legacy of a pre-born welfare state, the constant need for compensating potential losers of any economic reform, along with short-sighted decision-making, have together generated specific path dependencies in the Hungarian trajectory of economic development.     

PRICE SETTING OF MARKET MAKERS: A FILTERING PROBLEM WITH ENDOGENOUS FILTRATION

This paper studies the price‐setting problem of market makers under risk neutrality and perfect competition in continuous time. The classic approach of Glosten–Milgrom is followed. Bid and ask prices are defined as conditional expectations of a true value of the asset given the market makers' partial information that includes the customers' trading decisions. The true value is modeled as a Markov process that can be observed by the customers with some noise at Poisson times. A mathematically rigorous analysis of the price‐setting problem is carried out, solving a filtering problem with endogenous filtration that depends on the bid and ask price processes quoted by the market maker. The existence and uniqueness of the bid and ask price processes is shown under some conditions.     

Motivating a Productive Discussion of Normative Issues Through Debates

In this article, the author presents a way of using in-class debates to discuss contentious issues and help students develop critical thinking skills. Three elements were incorporated into an undergraduate public finance course: a presentation of ethical approaches in order to formally discuss normative issues, class debates which required students to work in groups and imaginatively occupy a perspective with which they were not personally comfortable, and individual reflection which forced students to reconcile their beliefs with academic evidence. The results show that even if students did not change their perspectives on economic policy, the reasons why they have those perspectives did change to be based in academic theory and evidence and not their blind adherence to specific political platforms.     

Neighborhood as Spatial Project: Making the Urban Order on the Downtown Brooklyn Waterfront

This article argues for a reconceptualization of one of the most basic concepts in urban studies: the neighborhood. Traditionally neighborhoods have been understood as clearly bounded, quasi‐Westphalian containers or as ‘natural areas’ of urban community. But this approach is widely acknowledged to be under‐theorized. And it fails to account for the ways in which the production of neighborhood is inherently political and often conflictual. After reviewing the ways in which neighborhood has been used in urban sociology and urban planning, this article offers a critical conception of neighborhoods as ‘spatial projects’ on the submetropolitan scale. This approach captures the ways in which neighborhoods are not abstract spaces on a city map, but the uneven, unequal products of complex, ongoing struggles between various groups and institutions. This approach is developed through an ethnographic and historical case study of neighborhood formation in one part of Brooklyn, New York. The article concludes with a discussion of how the language of spatial projects refocuses urban research on the political and economic forces that produce neighborhood in the contemporary city.     

Thinking critically about critical thinking: Assessing critical thinking of business students using multiple measures

Critical thinking is a skill that potential employers expect all graduates to possess. Hence, most business management programs consider critical thinking as an important student learning goal. Unfortunately, there is ambiguity about how to best assess critical thinking, both as a skill and a learning outcome. The authors empirically demonstrate how they measure the critical thinking ability of their students in different settings, and how their critical thinking ability improves as they progress through the business program.     

Loss and damage: a critical discourse analysis of Parties’ positions in climate change negotiations

The years-long negotiations on loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts reached a milestone with the adoption of the Paris Agreement, sanctioning the permanence of the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) created in 2013. The WIM aims at advancing knowledge gathering, coordination and support to address L&D associated with extreme and slow onset events in vulnerable developing countries (Decision 2/CP.19). Despite being among the most controversial issues to be recently treated in climate change negotiation, L&D has attracted little attention in the field of international relations. This paper aims at addressing this gap by reconstructing the emergence and evolution of the negotiating positions on L&D of developing and developed countries. It employs a critical discourse analytical approach and builds on Fairclough’s three-dimensional framework for critical discourse analysis, taking decision 2/CP.19 as the core communicative event. Consistently, the decision is analysed at three different levels: as a text (micro-scale); as a discursive practice (meso-scale); and as a social practice (macro-scale). The analysis makes use of a wide range of materials including previous decisions, High Level Segment statements and Parties submissions. It reconstructs Parties’ conflicting views on the positioning of L&D vis-à-vis the adaptation space (L&D as a part of, or as beyond adaptation) and the scientific, ethical and legal arguments employed to support these standpoints. It highlights, in particular, the strategic importance which the ‘compensation argument’ had in determining developing countries’ capacity to influence the UNFCCC process up to the inclusion of a specific article on L&D in the Paris Agreement. While calls for compensation might have lost momentum as a result of the Warsaw and Paris talks, the paper argues that their potential is far from exhausted. They in fact imply a more general request for climate justice which the UNFCCC has not yet addressed.     

较差质量数据下的返回弹道计算及对落点影响的分析

针对某老式卫星返回时雷达跟踪数据曾发生的测量异常及质量较差等情况，为解决此类数据在返回弹道及落点计算中出现的实际困难以及给出应对措施，基于工程实际情况给出了三种不同建模类型下的弹道计算方法——当前统计解耦扩展卡尔曼滤波（EKF）、动力学建模无迹卡尔曼滤波（UKF）、多项式滑窗最小二乘估计算法，并应用该次质量较差的实际观测数据进行了算法应用效果分析与落点计算情况对比，对计算中的经验及教训进行了总结。研究结果表明，所给出的三种算法在面对较差质量数据时性能差异较大，在工程实际应用中可考虑将多种算法互为参考。研究结果及其经验教训对卫星返回弹道及落点的实时估计的工程实施有一定的参考价值。     

Knowledge management through the development of knowledge repositories: towards work degradation

This paper questions the consequences of the use of electronic knowledge repositories for work and employment. Drawing on critical research suggesting that knowledge management associated with such tools presents similarities to scientific management principles, it proposes to examine the following key research question: how do employees experience the transformation of the employment relationship when a knowledge repository is introduced to the workplace? The inquiry is grounded in an exploratory qualitative case study of a knowledge management system designed to foster knowledge‐sharing in a Belgian public administration. The findings illustrate two complementary outcomes: this system resulted in employees experiencing deskilling and work degradation, and was met with resistance. Significantly, this paper considers work degradation as a reflexive phenomenon in the context studied, where knowledge‐sharing systems produced deskilling and resistance as part of a specific re‐regulation process.