The association between quarter length,forecast errors,and firms’ voluntary disclosures

Approximately 60 percent of adjacent fiscal quarters contain a different number of calendar days. In preliminary analyses, we find the change in quarter length is significantly associated with the changes in sales and earnings and that analysts condition on the prior quarter's results when making their forecasts. These results indicate that it is important for analysts to adjust for changes in quarter length when making forecasts. However, we find the quarterly change in days is positively associated with analysts’ sales and earnings forecasts errors, where forecast error equals the actual earnings minus the forecasted earnings. These results indicate that analysts systematically underestimate (overestimate) performance when quarter length increases (decreases). We find evidence indicating investors make similar errors as returns around earnings announcements are positively associated with the change in quarter length, but only when changes in firm performance is more sensitive to changes in quarter length. Corroborating these findings, managers are more (less) likely to discuss quarter length during conference calls when quarter length decreases (increases). These results are consistent with managers’ strategic disclosure incentives. In summary, our evidence suggests analysts and investors fail to fully take account of the quasi-mechanical effect that quarter length has on firm performance and managers strategically alter their voluntary disclosures to take advantage of these failures.     

Analysis of a general Markovian two-stage continuous-flow production system with a finite buffer

Fluid flow models are used in the performance evaluation of production, computer, and telecommunication systems. In order to develop a methodology to analyze general Markovian continuous material flow production systems with two processing stages with an intermediate finite buffer, a general single-buffer fluid flow system is modelled as a continuous time, continuous-discrete state space stochastic process and the steady-state distribution is determined. Various performance measures such as the production rate and the expected buffer level are determined from the steady-state distributions. The flexibility of this methodology allows analysis of a wide range of models by specifying only the transition rates and the flow rates associated with the discrete states of each stage. Therefore, the method is proposed as a tool for performance evaluation of general Markovian continuous-flow systems with a finite buffer. The solution methodology is illustrated by analyzing a production system where each machine has multiple up and down states associated with their quality characteristics.     

Career length: Effects of curvature of earnings profiles,earnings shocks,taxes, and social security

The same high labor supply elasticity that characterizes a representative family model with indivisible labor and employment lotteries also emerges without lotteries when self-insuring individuals choose interior solutions for their career lengths. Off corners, the more elastic is an earnings profile to accumulated working time, the longer is a workerʼs career. Negative (positive) unanticipated earnings shocks reduce (increase) the career length of a worker holding positive assets, while the effects are the opposite for a worker with negative assets. By inducing a worker to retire at an official retirement age, government provided social security can attenuate responses of career lengths to earnings profile slopes, earnings shocks, and taxes.     

Overstrained citizens? The number of ballot propositions and the quality of the decision process in direct democracy

We study how the number of ballot propositions affects the quality of decision making in direct democracy, as reflected in citizens’ knowledge, voting behavior, and attitudes toward democracy. Using three comprehensive data sets from Switzerland with over 3,500 propositions, we exploit variation in the number of federal and cantonal propositions. Voters know the most about the content of federal propositions when they are exclusively presented and less with a high number of concurrent cantonal propositions on the ballot. Across other outcomes we find no consistent indications that – for the observed variation in the exposure to popular votes – a high number of propositions impedes the quality of decision making in Swiss federal direct democracy. In the medium to longer term, more federal propositions on the ballot rather relate to higher perceived political influence and satisfaction with democracy.     

哪种风格的招股书更容易众筹成功？——来自在线众筹平台Seedrs的经验证据

随着数字技术和创新金融服务的发展,众筹平台已迅速发展成为可以替代传统天使投资人和私募机构的创业融资渠道.本文调查了招股书风格对股权众筹成功可能性的影响.通过对2017年和2018年在英国最大的股权众筹平台Seedrs上发起的741次众筹活动的招股书进行文本分析,本文发现招股书字数和用词可以显著影响众筹结果.众筹平台聚集着大量的业余投资爱好者,与专业投资人相比,他们通常更依赖于直觉和情绪做出相对感性的投资决定.篇幅长的招股书不仅不能有效地缓解信息不对称,还会增加潜在投资者快速提取有价值信息并准确理解商业项目的难度,最终削弱了他们的投资热情、降低了众筹成功率.包括更多乐观词汇的招股书不仅可以向外界传递积极的内部信息,还可以正向影响众筹平台用户的情绪、激发其投资热情,从而提高了众筹成功率.     

三菱盾构机过江掘进参数控制技术

以广州市轨道交通四号线车万盾构区间为例,介绍了日本三菱盾构机快速穿越珠江的掘进参数控制技术,为今后类似工程的施工提供参考。     

Austrian persistence? Capital-based business cycle theory and the dynamics of investment spending

Survey data are used to investigate the very long spending lags estimated in neoclassical studies of investment expenditures. Neoclassical investment theory has trouble explaining the length of these lags. By recognizing the Austrian concept of the capital structure and applying it to the problem, the present paper explains the length of these lags as proceeding from interactions between types of capital. Austrian arguments stemming from Austrian business-cycle theory seem to be needed to explain these lags. JEL Code E3, E4, C1     

Survival Modelling for Data From Combined Cohorts: Opening the Door to Meta Survival Analyses and Survival Analysis Using Electronic Health Records

Non-parametric estimation of the survival function using observed failure time data depends on the underlying data generating mechanism, including the ways in which the data may be censored and/or truncated. For data arising from a single source or collected from a single cohort, a wide range of estimators have been proposed and compared in the literature. Often, however, it may be possible, and indeed advantageous, to combine and then analyse survival data that have been collected under different study designs. We review non-parametric survival analysis for data obtained by combining the most common types of cohort. We have two main goals: (i) to clarify the differences in the model assumptions and (ii) to provide a single lens through which some of the proposed estimators may be viewed. Our discussion is relevant to the meta-analysis of survival data obtained from different types of study, and to the modern era of electronic health records.     

How does the Price Regulation Policy Impact on Patient–Nurse Ratios and the Length of Hospital Stays in Japanese Hospitals?

This study examines how the 2000 and 2006 revisions of the fee‐for‐service system have affected patient–nurse ratios and the average length of hospital stays in Japan. The empirical results show that hospitals are quite responsive to changes in price policy. The fee revisions have certainly achieved the policy objectives of reducing patient–nurse ratios and the length of hospital stays. As a result, hospitals have responded by greatly increasing the number of expensive beds for acute care. However, this was not exactly predicted by the Japanese government, which has aimed to reallocate health‐care resources, such as beds, to subacute or long‐term care.     

基于改进遗传算法的TSP问题求解的研究

为了解决基本遗传算法求解TSP问题过程中容易发生早熟收敛的问题,并进一步提高算法的求解速度,提出了一种求解TSP问题的改进的遗传算法。采取的主要改进手段是:用贪婪算法构造初始种群,以提高找到近似最优解的速度;在轮盘赌方法的基础上融入最佳保存策略进行选择操作;采用两点三段随机交叉的方法进行交叉操作,保持种群多样性以及避免种群过早成熟。并通过编程实现了该算法,最后通过中国144个城市的TSP实验,验证了该算法的良好性能。