Hospital cost and length of stay in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Objective: To provide a detailed picture of the economic impact of hospitalization in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and to identify factors associated with cost and length of stay (LOS).

Methods: In this retrospective cross-sectional study using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), this study included hospitalizations for IPF (ICD-9-CM 516.3) with a principal diagnosis of respiratory disease (ICD-9-CM 460-519) from 2009–2011; lung transplant admissions were excluded. Total inpatient cost, LOS, in-hospital death, and discharge disposition were reported. Linear regression models were used to determine variables predictive of LOS and cost.

Results: From 2009–2011, 22,350 non-transplant IPF patients with a principal diagnosis of respiratory disease were admitted: mean (±SE) age was 70.0 (0.32), and 49.1% were female. While in hospital, 11.4% of patients received mechanical ventilation and 8.9% received non-invasive ventilation. Mean (±SE) LOS was 7.4 (0.15) days overall (p?Limitations: The positive predictive value of the algorithm used to identify IPF is not optimal. The NIS database does not follow patients longitudinally, and claims after admission are not available. Claims do not indicate whether listed diagnoses were present on admission or developed during hospitalization. The exclusion of transplant-related expenditures lead to under-estimation of cost.

Conclusion: Using a nationally-representative database, we found IPF respiratory-related hospitalizations represent a significant economic burden with ～7,000 non-transplant IPF admissions per year, at a mean cost of $16,000 per admission. Mechanical ventilation is associated with statistically significant increases in LOS and cost. Therapeutic advances that reduce rates and costs of IPF hospitalizations are needed.     

基于不对称信息的试用期员工能力识别工具分析

在新《劳动合同法》颁布实施后,对试用期时间和试用期工资有了更明确的规定。在传统招聘识别的基础上,基于企业招聘的流程与任务,利用减少业主与员工间不对称信息的途径,提出试用期识别新员工能力的三种组合方法,以期对企业确定最优试用期与最优试用期工资数量及结构有所帮助。     

沪通铁路跨江通道建设方案探讨

随着经济的快速发展,长江口地区必将建造规模宏大的综合交通“立交桥”,形成连接南北、辐射东西的现代化立体交通网络。目前在各种运输方式中,惟一缺失并亟待打通的是铁路跨江通道。建设高等级、多线路的沪通铁路跨江通道,能够实现长三角现代化轨道交通南北联网,贯通沿江、沿海快速客运铁路,构建长江口都市圈,开辟长三角巨大都市带发展新天地。     

论产业纵向集聚与财政横向均衡的区域协调互动机制

本文认为中国已形成东部制造业与服务业带和中西部农业与矿业带状、点状分布的纵向产业集聚格局,这与其资源禀赋和生产力布局是相适应的;但这种产业集聚还处在高集聚、低专业、强政区、弱市场的低端时期,为促进产业集聚专业化发展和解决其财富不均的问题,必须重构区域协调互动的发展机制。主张对东中西纵向区域合纵连横,形成沿海帮助内地共同发展,中西部农业、矿业与生态贡献区和东部制造业及服务业反馈区协调互动的泛珠三角、泛长三角和大环渤海财政横向均衡区,以区域一体化促进统一市场的形成,主要依靠市场效应来推动产业集聚走向高端专业化。     

各地区居民收入基尼系数计算及其非参数计量模型分析

本文利用非等分组基尼系数公式,首次较为完整地计算出全国21个省、市以及自治区的1995~2004年城镇居民、农村居民和城乡居民基尼系数。在这一基础上,利用非参数计量经济模型中的分布密度函数估计方法,分析了1995~2004年各地区城镇、农村和城乡居民基尼系数变化特征。以居民平均收入水平与城乡居民收入平均基尼系数对各地区进行判别分析,发现以收入水平与分配公平程度为标准的判定基本上同我国东中西三大地区的划分一致。     

测定联邦止咳露中3种成分——用多波长直线回归分光光度法

采用多波长直线回归分光光度法 ,不经提取分离 ,直接测定联邦止咳露中磷酸可待因、盐酸麻黄碱和扑尔敏 3种组分的含量。磷酸可待因、盐酸麻黄碱和扑尔敏的回收率和相对标准偏差分别为 98.82 % ,0 .86% ;97.2 8% ,1 .1 0 %和 98.0 8% ,0 .96%。     

基于“共享式增长”的京津冀商贸物流产业新体系构建

基于"共享式增长"理念,运用投入产出模型及APL模型优化了京津冀商贸物流产业关联机制,并据此构建了京津冀商贸物流产业新体系。研究发现:北京的商贸物流业与其服务业和技术产业的关联密切,天津的商贸物流业与其制造业和金融业的联动发展较好,河北的商贸物流业与其制造业、采掘业和农林牧渔业的关联效应显著;北京的商贸物流发展趋于饱和,河北商贸物流业的产业关联结构相比天津更加均衡,其产业波及效应提升也更加明显。提出建议:为实现京津冀的资源与发展成果共享,京津在满足本地商贸物流需求的同时,应将部分商贸物流企业转移至河北,同时给予相关技术、资金支持;河北应承担起京津冀的主要商贸物流建设,完善商贸物流产业关联机制,加快发展工业品、采选品和农产品等专项商贸物流,保障对京津生产生活原料的供给。     

Designing monetary policy committees

We integrate monetary policy-making by committee into a New Keynesian model to assess the consequences of the committee׳s institutional characteristics for inflation, output, and welfare. Our analysis delivers the following results. First, we demonstrate that transparency about the committee׳s future composition is typically harmful. Second, we show that short terms for central bankers lead to effective inflation stabilization at the expense of comparably high output variability. Third, larger committees generally allow for more efficient stabilization of inflation but possibly for less efficient output stabilization. Fourth, large committees and short terms are therefore socially desirable if the weight on output stabilization in the social loss function is low. Fifth, we show that a central banker with random preferences may be preferable to a central banker who shares the preferences of society.     

Variables control chart limits and tests for special causes

Control charts are used to detect problems in control such as outliers, shifts in levels or excess variability in subgroup means that may have a special cause. This paper addresses itself to deriving control chart limits based on past data and based on initial samples in a current control situation. We present a general setting for control charts. Furthermore, an overview is given of tests for special causes. The tests are standardized so that the asymptotic type I error does not exceed a fixed level. The distributions of the run lengths of the tests and combinations of tests are also evaluated. We propose to use a low percen-tile of the run length distribution, instead of the average run length, to study the performance of the tests. These indicate that, in particular when tests are combined, the run length percentiles may be too small for practical purposes. It is shown that (nearly) exact control chart limits for observations from a normal distribution exist. The traditional limits differ considerably from the proposed ones and correspond to even smaller run length percentiles.     

Asymptotic confidence intervals for the length of the shortt under random censoring

A short t of a one dimensional probability distribution is defined to be an interval which has at least probability t and minimal length. The length of a show and its obvious estimator are significant measures of scale of a distribution and the corresponding random sample, respectively. In this note a non-parametric asymptotic confidence interval for the length of the (uniqueness is assumed) short t is established in the random censorship from the right model. The estimator of the length of the short t is based on the product-limit (PL) estimator of the unknown distribution function. The proof of the result mainly follows from an appropriate combination of the Glivenko-Cantelli theorem and the functional central limit theorem for the PL estimator.