Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty

This article investigates how uncertainty impacts the effect of monetary policy surprises on stock returns. Using high-frequency US data, we demonstrate that stock markets respond more aggressively to monetary policy surprises during periods of high uncertainty. We also show that uncertainty asymmetrically influences the transmission of positive and negative monetary policy surprises to stock market prices. The amplifying effect of uncertainty is found to be stronger for expansionary shocks than for contractionary shocks. Our robustness analysis confirms that financial uncertainty has a significant role in shaping the influence of monetary policy on the stock market.     

The relationship between people's activities and values with the protection level and biodiversity

We investigated how people's recreational activities, values, and land use preferences are related to the protection level, biodiversity and cultural heritage values of nature-based tourism areas in northern Finland. We assessed peoples' opinions using a public participation geographic information system (PPGIS) and analyzed the data together with spatial biodiversity and cultural heritage data from the same area. Associations between the PPGIS place markings with the protection level and biodiversity values were quite low, and for the cultural heritage sites they were altogether missing. Negative preferences were often marked in areas with high numbers of sites rated as pleasant and they overlapped with each other, indicating conflicting preferences. Since most activities are not noticeably related to the protection level or biodiversity values of a site they can be planned so as to protect the biodiversity of the area.     

Intraday return and volatility spillover mechanism from Chinese to Japanese stock market

We analyze the mechanism of return and volatility spillover effects from the Chinese to the Japanese stock market. We construct a stock price index comprised of those companies that have substantial operations in China. This China-related index responds to changes in the Shanghai Composite Index more strongly than does the TOPIX (the market index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange). This result suggests that China has a large impact on Japanese stocks via China-related firms in Japan. Furthermore, we find evidence that this response has become stronger as the Chinese economy has gained importance in recent years.     

Reliable Inference in Categorical Regression Analysis for Non‐randomly Coarsened Observations

In most surveys, one is confronted with missing or, more generally, coarse data. Traditional methods dealing with these data require strong, untestable and often doubtful assumptions, for example, coarsening at random. But due to the resulting, potentially severe bias, there is a growing interest in approaches that only include tenable knowledge about the coarsening process, leading to imprecise but reliable results. In this spirit, we study regression analysis with a coarse categorical‐dependent variable and precisely observed categorical covariates. Our (profile) likelihood‐based approach can incorporate weak knowledge about the coarsening process and thus offers a synthesis of traditional methods and cautious strategies refraining from any coarsening assumptions. This also allows a discussion of the uncertainty about the coarsening process, besides sampling uncertainty and model uncertainty. Our procedure is illustrated with data of the panel study ‘Labour market and social security' conducted by the Institute for Employment Research, whose questionnaire design produces coarse data.     

International flows of people and institutional change

International travel clearly increases human interaction over space and exposes societies to foreign influences, foreign ideas, and foreign institutions. Does international travel promote institutional change in a traveler's home country? This paper uses panel data from 149 countries to test the hypothesis of institutional change stemming from international travel. We generally find that foreign travel does not affect political institutions. In one sub-sample, we find limited evidence that international travel can be a determinant of institutional quality in the home country depending upon whether the home country is an autocracy or democracy.     

不同利率对我国上市银行信用风险的影响

对我国16家上市银行进行的实证检验表明：3个月同业拆借利率与银行信用风险显著正相关，人民币5年期基准存款利率与银行信用风险的关系不确定，人民币1年期基准存款利率与银行信用风险显著正相关，贷款利息收入占贷款比例与银行信用风险显著负相关。     

Revealing travel patterns and city structure with taxi trip data

Delineating travel patterns and city structure has long been a core research topic in transport geography. Different from the physical structure, the city structure beneath the complex travel-flow system shows the inherent connection patterns within the city. On the basis of taxi-trip data from Shanghai, we built spatially embedded networks to model intra-city spatial interactions and to introduce network science methods into the analysis. The community detection method is applied to reveal sub-regional structures, and several network measures are used to examine the properties of sub-regions. Considering the differences between long- and short-distance trips, we reveal a two-level hierarchical polycentric city structure in Shanghai. Further explorations of sub-network structures demonstrate that urban sub-regions have broader internal spatial interactions, while suburban centers are more influential on local traffic. By incorporating the land use of centers from a travel-pattern perspective, we investigate sub-region formation and the interaction patterns of center–local places. This study provides insights into using emerging data sources to reveal travel patterns and city structures, which could potentially aid in developing and applying urban transportation policies. The sub-regional structures revealed in this study are more easily interpreted for transportation-related issues than for other structures, such as administrative divisions.     

利用气井历史生产数据计算动态储量新方法

气藏动态储量是指参与渗流的地下气体地质储量,计算动储量常采用物质平衡法,但是对于难以获得平均地层压力的致密气藏不适用。本文介绍了利用气井长时间生产数据计算动态储量的方法,并研究采用叠加时间函数(Super-t)分析变产量修正时间,使计算结果更加精确;同时应用该方法对苏东南区致密砂岩气藏部分气井进行单井动态储量计算,为该区动储量估算提供借鉴。     

浅谈建设工程资料的管理与常见问题

建设工程资料是建设工程的重要组成部分,工程资料的管理不仅对建设工程而且对工程后期的使用、维修、改扩建工程有着重要的意义。因此,有必要对工程资料的规范管理及常见问题进行阐述。