EKC-type transitions and environmental policy under pollutant uncertainty and cost irreversibility

Previous studies have suggested that some pollutant levels first increases due to the economic growth and then start decreasing, the pattern being called the “environmental Kuznets curve” (EKC). We examine EKC-type transitions of pollutant levels not with respect to economic growth but more generally in time. Assuming that each policy maker optimally executes the two switching options of regulation and unregulation for pollution, the switching dynamics of environmental policy can be described by an alternating renewal process. It is shown that the double Laplace transform of transition density of a pollutant level can be obtained by a novel application of renewal theory. The expected level of overall pollutants is then calculated numerically and found to exhibit either a Λ‐shaped or an N-shaped pattern in time. Our results present a simple explanation for the EKC-type transitions of pollutant levels within a real options framework.     

中国城镇化对扩大内需影响研究--基于我国省级面板数据的实证

本文在已有研究的基础上探讨城镇化扩大内需的影响,采用省级面板数据模型分析了城镇化扩大内需的影响,进而提出相应的政策建议。实证结果显示,我国城镇化与扩大内需的之间的关系呈现出了U型结构。城镇化扩大内需的效果需要一定的经济社会条件,即区域经济发展水平、产业结构、收入水平和社会保障水平等。区域经济发展水平对内需呈现出负向影响,农民人均纯收入对内需呈现出正向影响。分区域看,东中西部地区城镇化扩大内需的效果差异较大,主要归结于区域经济发展水平、产业结构、收入水平和社会保障水平等方面。基于此,本文从建立健全覆盖城乡的社会保障体系、拓宽农民增收渠道、推动区域产业结构的优化和升级等方面提出相对应的政策建议。     

二季度债券市场收益率曲线将陡峭化上行

在充裕资金面的影响下,一季度银行间债券市场走出一波温和上扬行情,10年期国债收益率从年初的3．7％左右下行至一季度末的3．35％附近。文章综合相关数据分析后预计,未来工业增加值增速、货币供应量将有所放缓,新增贷款有望平稳增长,宏观经济仍将高位运行,结合经济走势相似年份的CPl均值,预计二季度CPI上行至3％后逐步回落,国债及政策性金融债收益率曲线整体小幅上行,收益率曲线呈现陡峭化态势。     

老龄化趋势下老年群体的消费需求变化与产业发展对策研究

随着我国人口老龄化程度的不断加深,在经济内循环的政策驱动下,老龄人口消费需求将对我国产业发展产生深远的影响.目前,老龄人口消费需求强劲,但与之相关的医护、旅游、娱乐、地产、金融和教育等产业的发展相对滞后.政府应协同社会力量突破老年产业发展的瓶颈,扩大我国老年人的消费需求,带动国内经济发展.     

Inventory model for an inventory system with time-varying demand rate

The standard inventory problems of the multi-period have been modeled under different situations. Specifically we have considered the demand subjects of a continuous distribution and a discrete distribution, and whether the demand of each period is unchanged or not. A method to get an economic order quantity in inventory systems with discrete and unchanged demand was presented in a previous paper, and this method has been generalized to an inventory model with varying continuous demand. However, it was not achieved due to there being many classified cases in the general situations. In this article the above method is discussed in the case discrete demand to determine whether it increases or decreases from period to period. A theoretical method is presented by using previous results and some examples are given which suggest how the concept can handle on inventory system. In order to make the decision, an algorithm is also presented under some conditions, and examples are shown by using the computer software program, Mathematica, which helps to explain the findings. In general cases, we view the optimal policy in the inventory problems in only a few periods.     

2030年世界能源与电力发展展望

在系统分析世界能源与电力发展最新动态的基础上,对2030年世界及主要国家的能源与电力发展趋势以及能源与电力投资增长的趋势进行了分析预测。该分析预测结果可为研究和制定我国的能源及电力发展战略提供参考。     

Unemployment,Government Spending and the Laffer Effect*

The paper studies the effects of income tax rate changes in a general equilibrium model with frictional unemployment. Laffer curve effects, by which a tax rate reduction may increase the level of government spending or its share in output, are shown to be possible under certain conditions. These are the presence of unemployment benefit payments, government budget balance through fiscal spending adjustment and limited quantitative importance of labour reallocation costs. Endogenous government spending acts as a fiscal accelerator if the fiscal burden of unemployment benefit payments is large, but reduces the employment effects of tax rate cuts if it is low.     

Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations

This paper estimates the Phillips curve allowing for a simultaneous role of rational and survey expectations. We consider both a reduced form and a structural specification of the Phillips curve. The results suggest that survey expectations can be a statistically significant component of firms' expectations and inflation dynamics. However, rational expectations continue to play a dominant role.     

吉林市中低收入群体医疗服务需求的调查分析

对吉林省吉林市315户中低收入家庭进行问卷调查的结果表明：部分中低收入群体的医疗费用负担沉重;城镇居民基本医疗保险的实效性较差;居民对医保政策缺乏了解;社区卫生服务机构没有充分发挥作用。强化政府责任,加大宣传力度,加强社区基础医疗卫生服务机构建设,提高居民医疗保障待遇,是完善我国中低收入群体医疗需求的有效途径。     

“十三五”期间我国经济——能源——环境系统变量发展预测

本文以动态可计算一般均衡模型为基础,2010年投入产出表延长表为基准数据,对“十三五”期间我国经济--能源--环境系统相关变量进行了预测。分析结果显示：“十三五”期间我国经济将实现新常态下的稳定适宜增长,GDP增速保持在65%左右,产业结构进一步优化,第三产业比重明显上升,第二产业明显下降。由于经济增长的原因,能源消费总量与碳排放总量依然较高,但能源消费结构进一步优化,碳排放强度明显降低,节能减排的形势依然比较严峻。