日本出版产业困境解析

战后日本的出版产业,从1955年至1975年以2位数高速增长,1976-1996年增长率减为1位数,1996年后发生重大变化,10年9降,前所未有。这既与日本经济的泡沫危机相生相伴,又与日本社会的发展及出版产业自身矛盾的累积息息相关。固然有读者需求日益多样化、畅销书发行册数大幅度减少等原因,但最根本的还是因日本整体经济长期低迷徘徊,造成大批读者因对前途失望而对出版物变得漠不关心。日本人口出生率连年下降、产业内部结构不合理等也给出版业的发展带来诸多不利因素。此外,近年来兴起的网络和"手机热"、公益图书馆的发展也给出版业带来了很大冲击。同时,流通渠道的垄断也长期困扰日本出版产业的发展。     

金融自由化实践的国际比较

金融自由化对发展中国家是一把"双刃剑",它在为发展中国家带来了好处的同时,也引发了很多负效应.原因在于发展中国家对金融自由化普遍缺乏足够的准备而仓促实施改革,国内金融制度与监管体系不健全,而金融市场过度开放又导致国际短期资本大量涌入.与发展中国家不同的是,发达国家的金融自由化改革却取得了较好的成效.与之相比,发展中国家目前处于两难的选择困境:如果不继续进行自由化,则在国际经济舞台上会更被动;如果进行自由化,却又由于前期的改革失败而无法准确把握好今后的战略措施.对此,发展中国家惟一正确的选择应当是结合国情,坚决地顺着金融自由化的方向走下去,不改革是没有出路的.     

太行山南段主要隆升时期探讨

本文以太行山南段为研究区域,通过对夷平面的研究,认为太行期夷平面形成之后至唐县期夷平面形成之前太行山南段隆升约1300m,占整个山体隆升幅度的70%。河流阶地的研究表明太行山南段第四纪以来的隆升幅度约80m,对太行山南段隆升成山的贡献不大。同时,山前坳陷盆地古近系-新近系与第四系之间存在巨大的地层厚度差,以及山前断裂在古近纪和新近纪时期活动频繁,第四纪时期活动性弱。以上证据表明太行山南段主要隆升于太行期夷平面形成之后至唐县期夷平面形成之前,即中新世至上新世中期,第四纪隆升幅度较小。     

Stock Volatility during the Recent Financial Crisis

This paper uses monthly returns from 1802 to 2010, daily returns from 1885 to 2010, and intraday returns from 1982 to 2010 in the USA to show how stock volatility has changed over time. It also uses various measures of volatility implied by option prices to infer what the market was expecting to happen in the months following the financial crisis in late 2008. This episode was associated with historically high levels of stock market volatility, particularly among financial sector stocks, but the market did not expect volatility to remain high for long and it did not. This is in sharp contrast to the prolonged periods of high volatility during the Great Depression. Similar analysis of stock volatility in the United Kingdom and Japan reinforces the notion that the volatility seen in the 2008 crisis was relatively short‐lived. While there is a link between stock volatility and real economic activity, such as unemployment rates, it can be misleading.     

Medicare patient experience with vagus nerve stimulation for treatment-resistant depression

Abstract

Background:

Major depressive disease (MDD) represents a cost burden to the US healthcare system: approximately one-third of MDD patients fail conventional treatment: multiple failures define treatment-resistant depression (TRD). Vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) therapy is an approved adjunctive treatment for TRD.     

The impact of monetary policy in the midst of big shocks

This paper studies the impact of Federal Reserve policies that created the largest deviations from price stability during the Fed׳s first 100 years: the post-World War I deflation, the deflation of the Great Depression, the inflation of World War II, and the Great Inflation of the 1970s. In terms of their macroeconomic impacts, I find that deflation was uniquely depressing in the 1930s because of cartel policies that prevented nominal prices and wages from adjusting to clear markets, and not because deflation is generically depressing. I find that the biggest impact of monetary policy during World War II was in debasing debt through inflation. I find that the main drivers of the 1970s economy were long-run changes in productivity and the labor market, and that there may have been little that the Fed could have done at this time to expand employment and output. More broadly, I find that macroeconomic performance would have been better over the Fed׳s first century had the Fed followed a monetary policy to deliver stable prices.     

Fuzzy item response model: a new approach to generate membership function to score psychological measurement

The aim of this study is to propose an new approach, fuzzy item response model (FIRM), which combines item response theory (IRT) and fuzzy set theory, in the educational or psychological measurement. Applying FIRM to improve the predictive validity of psychological measurement is verified. We set up a detailed procedure for the FIRM and apply it to a valuable empirical study with Beck Depression Inventory-II (Chinese version) administrated on outpatient diagnosed as depression was given. The results showed the correct classification of depression based on FIRM scoring was 80.3% while that of raw score was only 73.2%. That is, via FIRM scoring, 7.9% of the erroneous judgments of depression inferred from self-reported inventory were reduced. It is also suggested that considerable cost concerning prevention and cure of depression might be reduced via FIRM.     

高校学生抑郁症高发率的人文影响因素与应对策略

人文影响因素是高校学生抑郁症高发率的重要诱因之一，这种影响从大学生人格的社会人文多维生态学模型的七个维度得以体现，须沿着基本对应的方向对高校学生抑郁症高发率问题采取相应对策。     

A New Frontier in the Battle Against Smoking: An Exploratory Investigation of Low-Income Adult Smokers

ABSTRACT

This paper fills an important gap in the marketing literature by examining the drivers of risky behaviors such as smoking among the economically disadvantaged. Smoking rates and smoking-related illnesses are on the rise in this group and previous research has not adequately considered the efforts of smoking cessation marketing campaigns and anti-smoking policy directives. Data were gathered from 729 ethnically diverse, low-income consumers. Logistic regression analysis revealed that depression, gender, race, and age are significant predictors of risky behavior (smoking) in this group. The implications of the findings for demarketing campaigns and public policy programs are discussed and future research directions are identified.     

Risk Perception and Worry Related to Adolescents' Judgement of Three Types of Risk

The core aim of this study was to examine determinants of anticipated worry related to three types of risk among adolescents. The participants were Norwegian high‐school students aged 15–19 years (n = 335). They were students at 6 high schools and a total of 15 randomly selected school classes participated in the study. All the students were asked to fill in a self‐completion questionnaire. The response rate was 100 per cent. The participants were shown three video sequences of three‐minute conversations between a person and a listener discussing three risk sources, which each had developed into a problem (drug use, depression, and sexual abuse). The video sequences were shown to the students when they were in their classes. The results showed that there were gender differences in probability assessments as well as in anticipated worry related to the three types of risk. There were also differences in worry depending on the respondent's past experience with an identical or similar problem or risk. In addition to cognitive evaluations, own experience and gender, general worry, social support seeking, anxiety and depression significantly predicted worry. These variables explained 52 per cent of the variance. Worry may be a significant predictor of risk behaviour as well as decisions concerning risks and risk reduction. The results are related to the risk‐as‐feelings hypothesis (Loewenstein, Weber, Hsee and Welch) and other risk decision models are also discussed.