Paradise for who? Segmenting visitors' satisfaction with cognitive image and predicting behavioural loyalty

The purpose of this research is to assess the influence of socio‐demographic characteristics on destination image and loyalty, thereby offering a segmentation perspective of visitors to the island of Mauritius. A self‐administered survey of hotel guests was undertaken and resulted in a sample of 705 respondents. Using a k‐means clustering algorithm and discriminant analysis, three clusters of visitors were identified. Different image attributes predict visitors' revisit and recommendation intentions. These findings allow destination marketers to adapt the marketing mix elements to different segments while enabling a destination to emphasize the relevant attributes in promotion and positioning efforts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: A Time-Series CUSUM Methodology

The ability to predict corporate financial distress can be strengthened using models that account for serial correlation in the data, incorporate information from more than one period and include stationary explanatory variables. This paper develops a stationary financial distress model for AMEX and NYSE manufacturing and retailing firms based on the statistical methodology of time-series Cumulative Sums (CUSUM). The model has the ability to distinguish between changes in the financial variables of a firm that are the result of serial correlation and changes that are the result of permanent shifts in the mean structure of the variables due to financial distress. Tests performed show that the model is robust over time and outperforms similar models based on the popular statistical methods of Linear Discriminant Analysis and Logit.     

非上市中小企业贷款违约率的定量分析——基于判别分析法和决策树模型的分析

本文运用判别分析法和决策树模型对非上市中小企业违约风险进行了分析,并将两种方法的分析结果进行了对比。分析结果表明,两种方法均能较好地判别企业违约的可能性,而采用决策树模型的最大的好处是,除了能够较好地判断企业的违约率之外,它还能够找出影响企业违约的关键性因素。从我们的分析样本来看,商业银行在判断企业的信用水平时,现金流量/总债务的比例、流动资产/流动负债比例是两个非常重要的考察因素。如果银行花精力对它们进行调查、核实,保证其准确性,将大大提高对企业违约率判断的准确性。     

A typologies of traveler in Thailand： Using traveling patterns approach

This research investigates the characteristics of Thai to discern what their traveling behavior patterns. It indicated five different traveling patterns, which were named, ＂Physical action＂, ＂Conservation of nature＂, ＂Service expectation＂, ＂Intend to travel＂ and ＂Obedience of law and order＂. It revealed that their traveling patterns were physically passive, less environmentally aware and knowledgeable, service expected, multi-purpose and short trip, and moderate obedience of law and order. The relation of sociodemographic profile （gender, age, education and income） to their traveling patterns was analyzed using Chi-Square tests. Discriminant analysis was run as a way of examining the accuracy and usefulness of the ecotourist scorecard. Using the concept of a hard-to-soft ecotourist with discriminant analysis, 51.4% was soft ecotourist, 39.3% was medium ecotourist and 9.3% was hard ecotourist. Although not identified, it is likely that there are subgroups （0.3%） within the hard ecotourist with the higher scoring tourists being most active ecotourist. The findings showed that the majority of Thai people tend to be comfortable nature-based tourist with less environmentally aware and knowledgeable. In fact, it could be argued that tourists in natural environments, even if they try to minimize their impact, may cause more environmental damage than tourist on a city tour.     

The predictability of debt-servicing difficulties among less developed countries

In this article, multivariate statistical models are derived for forecasting the emergence of arrears of debt-service among less-developed countries. The emphasis of the article is on prediction, and the criterion variable differs from that generally used in earlier research, which focuses on rescheduling. Out-of-sample tests are used to establish theex ante predictive utility of the derived models, which are found to have low error rates. Moreover, the predictive ability appears to be stable over time.     

区域农业可持续发展的生态安全非均一评价与判别分析

农业生产与生态环境有着密切的关系，生态安全与否直接影响到农业生产及农业经济发展的可持续性，因此农业赖以发展的自然资源、生态资源只有处于一种安全的状态才能实现农业生产、经济和社会的协调、和谐与永续发展。由于不同地区生态经济系统的组分和功能具有明显的差异性，导致不同区域的生态安全内容也不完全一样，因此本文以吉林省为特定区域，利用非均一评价与判别分析方法对吉林省不同州市农业可持续发展的生态安全状况进行了判别、聚类与系统分析，最终针对吉林省农业可持续发展的生态安全建设提出了对策和建议。     

葡萄酒产业纵向协作模式农户选择影响因素*——以河西走廊葡萄酒产区为例

［目的］构建了农户参与产业链纵向协作模式分析的7个基本假设,对河西走廊葡萄酒产区农户参与纵向协作模式选择的影响因素进行分析。［方法］文章基于河西走廊葡萄酒产区农户的入户调查,运用判别分析法综合分析葡萄酒产业纵向协作模式农户选择偏好及主要影响因素。［结果］（1）河西走廊产区酿酒葡萄种植户显著地偏好“口头协议”模式参与葡萄酒产业纵向协作,“市场交易”模式次之,“合同模式”偏好程度最低,其选择率分别为4045%、3315%和2640%。（2）农户选择产业纵向协作模式的影响因素存在差异。专用性投资是农户选择“市场交易”模式最重要影响因素。（3）“口头协议”与“书面合同”模式下,企业与农户之间的监督管理对于双方协作非常必要。（4）“市场交易”和“口头协议”模式下的企业与农户普遍缺乏有效沟通,“企业—农户”之间松散的组织关系,极易引发合作双方的机会主义行为,导致潜在“敲竹杠”风险,农户选择“书面合同”模式动力不足。［结论］位于产业价值链“微笑曲线”高价值区的企业,如何技术性的处理利益分配对双方影响深远。     

基于费歇判别的企业经营状况评价模型

以2009年的60家企业作为训练样本,构建了以每股收益、每股净资产、净资产收益率、每股现金流量为主的企业经营状况的指标体系,并通过SPSS软件建立了基于费歇判别的企业经营状况的评价模型。最后利用该模型对60个训练样本的经营状况进行了回判,并将2009年的40家企业作为验证样本对该模型的推广能力进行了检验。仿真结果表明,基于费歇判别的企业经营状况评价模型是一种较为有效的评价方法。