基于费歇判别的企业经营状况评价模型

以2009年的60家企业作为训练样本,构建了以每股收益、每股净资产、净资产收益率、每股现金流量为主的企业经营状况的指标体系,并通过SPSS软件建立了基于费歇判别的企业经营状况的评价模型。最后利用该模型对60个训练样本的经营状况进行了回判,并将2009年的40家企业作为验证样本对该模型的推广能力进行了检验。仿真结果表明,基于费歇判别的企业经营状况评价模型是一种较为有效的评价方法。     

DDA法圆弧插补误差分析及解决办法

插补是指数据密化的过程。DDA法插补是比较常用的一种插补方式,但在实际应用中易出现插补误差,本文通过实例解析,通过增加终点判别器的方法很好的解决了这个问题。     

Assimilation of enterprise technology upgrades: a factor-based study

The purpose of this study is to gain a better understanding of the differences in the propensity of firms to initiate and commit to the assimilation of an enterprise technology upgrade. A research model is proposed that examines the influences that four technological and four organisational factors have on predicting assimilation of a technology upgrade. Results show that firms with a greater propensity to assimilate the new enterprise resource planning (ERP) version have a higher assessment of relative advantage, IS technical competence, and the strategic role of IS relative to those firms with a lower propensity to assimilate a new ERP version.     

Using partial least square discriminant analysis to distinguish between Islamic and conventional banks in the MENA region

The deterioration of bank profitability poses a threat not only to the interests of consumers and internal staff members but also affects investors who may equally suffer from significant financial losses. It is important to establish an effective system which assists investors in their investment choices. In prior literature, traditional models have been developed, but achieved short‐term performances such as logistic regression and discriminant analysis. This paper applies a partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS‐DA) to distinguish between conventional and Islamic banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region based on the financial information for the period 2005–2011. This method can successfully identify the non‐linearity and correlations between financial indicators. The results demonstrate superior performance of the proposed method. On one hand, our model can select all financial ratios to distinguish between banks and at the same time identify the most important variables in the distinction process. On the other hand, the proposed model has high levels in terms of accuracy and stability.     

An analysis of the social unit of participation and the perceived psychological outcomes associated with most enjoyable recreation activities

Abstract

Two research questions were addressed by this study: (1) to determine the predominant social units in which individuals participate in their two most enjoyable recreation activities, and (2) to determine if a relationship exists between the social units with which individuals participate in their two most enjoyable activities and the reasons for participating in these activities. Outdoor activities predominated as individuals’ two most enjoyable activities with a marked predominance of participation in the family/friends social group. Two discriminant analyses revealed a strong relationship between social units of participation and reasons for participation. The reasons of family togetherness, relation with nature, being with people, escaping the family, escaping physical pressure, and meeting new people were the primary discriminating variables in pre‐dicting the social unit of participation. However, these reasons were not, in general, viewed as primary reasons for engaging in one's most enjoyable activities. Therefore, it may be concluded that the type and degree of social interaction desired vary with the social unit of participation, but the primary reasons for participation remain relatively stable regardless of the social unit of participation.     

面向环境友好的县域经济发展模式选择——基于中部县域的实证分析

我国县域环境数据的缺乏一直是影响县域环境问题研究的重要障碍,特别是在县域经济发展模式的选择问题上,至今仍没有一个很好的解决方法。本文尝试运用间接的方法来分析面向环境友好的县域经济发展模式的选择问题,并基于中部县域进行实证分析。首先,在大量数据的基础上,从新的角度确立县域经济发展模式的划分标准,并进一步划分了中部140个生态县的经济发展模式,然后以其为训练样本,结合县域经济发展模式选择的影响因素和指标构建线性判别函数,以此对其他358个非生态县的发展模式进行分类,判别各个县域应该采取的经济发展模式。该方法能够很好地判别各个县域应该采取的经济发展模式,为解决考虑环境因素的经济发展模式的选择问题提供了一条很好的思路,能够给县域经济发展提供有益的参考。     

An alternative approach to discriminating multivariate populations and its applications to marketing research

A new method for discriminating among multivariate populations, called the Hausdorff procedure, is introduced to the marketing literature. Rules for classification are defined and a limited simulation study is conducted. For the simulation, both the level of collinearity among the discriminating variables and the level of overlap among the populations are varied. The results indicate that this new procedure is particularly suitable when there is either a high degree of collinearity among the predictor variables or considerable overlap of the populations being investigated. The Hausdorff procedure is also applied to two sets of consumer data. In each instance, it is found to be superior to linear discriminant analysis with respect to the percentage of correct classifications.     

Prediction of hotel bankruptcy using support vector machine,artificial neural network,logistic regression,and multivariate discriminant analysis

The objectives of this paper are firstly, to provide an optimal hotel bankruptcy prediction approach to minimize the empirical risk of misclassification and secondly, to investigate the functional characteristics of multivariate discriminant analysis, logistic, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and support vector machine (SVM) models in hotel bankruptcy prediction. The performances were evaluated not only in terms of overall classification and prediction accuracy but also in terms of relative error cost ratios. The results showed that ANN and SVM were very applicable models in bankruptcy prediction with data from Korean hotels. When jointly measuring both type I and type II errors, especially allowing for the greater costs associated with type I errors, however, ANN was more accurate with smaller estimated relative error costs than SVM. Thus, if the objective is to find the best early warning technique that performs accurately with small relative error costs, then, it will be worth considering ANN method for hotel bankruptcy prediction.     

企业财务困境预警及对策研究

为了有效地预警企业财务困境,论文以156家上市公司为研究样本,运用逐步判别分析方法从33个财务比率指标中筛选出6个变量,构建了一个六变量财务困境判别模型。经检验,新建模型对企业财务困境的预测正确率达到93.59%,且具有一定的超前预测能力。企业可以应用该模型及早预警财务困境,及时采取措施防范和应对财务困境。     

论财务预警模型的构建——来自中国证券市场的经验数据

当前,上市公司的财务预警判别问题是国内外财务研究的热点,也取得了不少的成果,并建立了多种财务预警模型。以2009年主板上市公司的年度财务报表作为数据来源,从反映上市公司财务状况的偿债能力、盈利能力、营运能力、持续经营能力等四个方面考虑,初步确定了16个财务预警变量。首先通过单变量的描述性统计对这16个财务指标进行显著性判断;其次,采用多元统计中的逐步判别法确立出3个判别分析变量,从而构建了财务预警模型;最后,通过检验样本对该模型进行实证检验,证明该财务预警模型具有良好的判别效果。