Modified efficient importance sampling for partially non‐Gaussian state space models

The construction of an importance density for partially non‐Gaussian state space models is crucial when simulation methods are used for likelihood evaluation, signal extraction, and forecasting. The method of efficient importance sampling is successful in this respect, but we show that it can be implemented in a computationally more efficient manner using standard Kalman filter and smoothing methods. Efficient importance sampling is generally applicable for a wide range of models, but it is typically a custom‐built procedure. For the class of partially non‐Gaussian state space models, we present a general method for efficient importance sampling. Our novel method makes the efficient importance sampling methodology more accessible because it does not require the computation of a (possibly) complicated density kernel that needs to be tracked for each time period. The new method is illustrated for a stochastic volatility model with a Student's t distribution.     

机构投资者与个人投资者非理性行为差异研究

机构投资者与个人投资者是证券市场的重要组成部分,其非理性程度直接影响着市场的健康稳定。本文基于有情境元素的问卷调查,构建包含投资者类别为自变量,年龄和性别为控制变量,16种常见非理性行为为因变量的分析框架,实证检验机构投资者与个人投资者非理性行为差异。结果表明,中国机构投资者与个人投资者都存在严重的非理性行为;相比机构投资者,个人投资者非理性程度更为严重;机构投资者与个人投资者在偏好逆转、证实性偏差、沉没成本、模糊厌恶、处置效应和损失厌恶方面存在显著差异。本研究为投资者防范非理性行为提供建议,为市场稳定发展提供参考。     

Is unemployment good for the environment?

Environmental quality is a public good, potentially impacted by everybody. Individual level pro-environmental behavior affects environmental quality in the aggregate. Therefore, it is important to understand what causes individual’s pro-environmental behaviors to change. We quantify the causal effect of one determinant, unemployment, using an EU-27 population representative Eurobarometer survey. Drawing on results from the theory of the private provision of public goods, and recognizing that unemployment decreases income and the opportunity cost of time, we formulate testable predictions that unemployment will decrease the extent of pro-environmental behaviors that require monetary contributions and increase the extent of pro-environmental behaviors that mainly require time/effort. Instrumental variables regressions provide empirical evidence to support these hypotheses. Changes in the unemployment rate within a sub-national region provide the exogenous variation needed to identify the causal effect. Several supplemental questions on the survey provide evidence that environmental issues lose saliency and economic issues gain saliency when one becomes unemployed, suggesting that interested parties may wish to emphasize cost savings of pro-environmental behavior rather than environmental benefits during times of increased unemployment.     

农技人员推广导向对农户品牌行为影响的作用机理——基于扎根理论的探索性研究

本文立足农资品牌成长的特定环境, 从农技基层推广人员的视角出发, 运用扎根理论研究方法, 归纳不同推广导向下形成的不同类型产品推广方式, 构建农资产品推广导向对农户品牌行为的作用机理模型, 为探讨中国特殊背景下农资产品推广导向与农户品牌行为的关系提供有益的理论依据和研究框架, 以期在实践中发挥促进农资品牌推广和推动农资品牌成长的指导作用.     

Analysing job creation effects of scaling up infrastructure spending in South Africa

In a first for South Africa, this article draws on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynamic economy-wide employment impacts of infrastructure investment funded with different fiscal tools. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, the South African investment plan is modelled, given the infrastructure externality. Alternative fiscal scenarios to finance the policy are modelled in the article. In the long run, unemployment decreases for all types of workers under one of the scenarios. In the short run, only elementary occupation workers benefit from a decrease in unemployment; for the rest, unemployment rises.     

Subsidiary managers’ knowledge mobilizations: Unpacking emergent knowledge flows

Knowledge flows are a key source of advantage for multinational corporations (MNCs); however the nuances of knowledge flow practices and their micro-foundations require further theoretical development. Using qualitative data on 40 cases of subsidiary managers’ knowledge mobilizations, this paper unravels micro-level practices of knowledge flows in MNCs. We find that subsidiary managers’ knowledge mobilizations initiate a complex pattern of subsidiary knowledge inflows, pinpointing the significance of lateral and bottom up exchanges (locally as well as internationally). We use these insights to distinguish between two types of subsidiary knowledge flows: deliberate and emergent, and discuss how their differences have profound implications for the investigation of MNC knowledge flows and their micro-foundations.     

Compulsory versus voluntary voting: An experimental study

We report on an experiment comparing compulsory and voluntary voting institutions in a voting game with common preferences. Rational choice theory predicts sharp differences in voter behavior between these two institutions. If voting is compulsory, then voters may find it rational to vote insincerely, i.e., against their private information. If voting is voluntary so that abstention is allowed, then sincere voting in accordance with a voter's private information is always rational while participation may become strategic. We find strong support for these theoretical predictions in our experimental data. Moreover, voters adapt their decisions to the voting institution in place in such a way as to make the group decision accuracy differences between the two voting institutions negligible. The latter finding may serve to rationalize the co-existence of compulsory and voluntary voting institutions in nature.     

Effects of Label on Consumer Preferences: Focus on Hawaiian Avocado Industry

This study examines market challenges facing a local agriculture industry in a small island setting. Examination of the Hawai‘i local avocado industry indicates labeling can address the product information gap between consumers and producers, improve market share, and increase import substitution by local products. Currently, local avocados occupy only 33% of market share, compared with 67% captured by imports. Consumer preferences among local labeled, local unlabeled, and imported avocados were analyzed using multinomial logistic regression. Statistical results showed that labels influence consumers’ decisions to buy local or imported avocados, and their preferences were also influenced by sociodemographic variables, avocado characteristics, and purchasing behavior. Key market segments to target and policy implications are also discussed.     

我国能耗监测管理现状及未来发展趋势

适应节能形势发展的新变化,能耗监测的内涵也正在逐步延伸。实践表明,建立有效的能耗监测管控体系,对于提高能效、推进节能减排作用明显。近年来我国能耗监测管理得到了不同程度的改善,但在管理理念、制度安排、技术创新、资金支持等方面还存在着较多问题。利用信息技术,建立能耗在线实时监测管理体系,将成为未来能耗监测的发展目标。适应这种发展要求,我国需要在计量设备基础管理、能耗监测考核制度、监测机构设置和人员培训、资金渠道等方面进行不断创新。     

Perceptions of determinants of job selection in the hospitality and tourism industry: The case of Korean university students

ABSTRACT

This study explores the key factors influencing potential employees in the hospitality and tourism industry and examines whether causal relationships between behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control influence students' job selection. The study suggests that the career decision-making process is related to job selection. A total of 307 responses were analyzed. The results explain individual students' attitudes toward a behavior and perceived behavioral control in the context of their job selection. Attitudes toward a behavior and job selection had significant effects on career decisions. On the other hand, opinions of significant others had no significant effect. Perceived behaviors required to decide on jobs had a significant effect on job selection intentions. Students with internship experience were likely to form positive attitudes toward the hospitality and tourism industry, suggesting internships to be a useful source of a stronger relationship between the industry and job aptitudes of students in hospitality and tourism programs. The results have important implications.