The Political Economy of Policy Vacuums: The European Commission on Demographic Change

ABSTRACT

Supranational organisations can only confront politico-economic issues that are recognised as important. Typically, issues gain recognition either when they provide an external shock to the system, shaking political actors into action, or when they are framed as important in policy networks concerned with developing the appropriate scientific approach. Ideally political and scientific actors align in creating pressures to recognise the issue as salient and to mobilise organisational responses. Issues differ in their capacity to be driven by both political and scientific pressures, creating crisis management, technocratic, and reform agenda outcomes. Here we explore a further variation, where pressures around an issue are insufficient, creating a policy vacuum. We examine one such policy vacuum in Europe: demographic change. This issue belongs to no particular Directorate-General in the European Commission, but is subject to policy frames from DG EMPL and DG ECFIN. Without sufficient political and scientific pressures, no particular policy position is occupied and advocated despite recognition of the issue’s importance. We discuss the role of policy vacuums and the need for their identification in political economy research.     

Efficiency Determinants and Capacity Issues in Angolan Insurance Companies

This paper describes a variety of approaches used to assess the efficiency of a sample of major insurance companies in Angola between 2003 and 2012. Starting out with the bootstrapping technique, several data envelopment analysis (DEA) estimates were generated, allowing the use of confidence intervals and bias correction in central estimates to test for significant differences in efficiency levels and input‐decreasing/output‐increasing potentials. Previous studies have focused on the measurement and explanation of the factors affecting the performance rather than the prediction. The use of neural networks combined with DEA results as part of an attempt to produce a model for insurance companies’ performance with effective predictive ability is investigated. The findings indicate that older insurance companies with Portuguese origin tend to be more efficient. Results also suggest that opportunities for accommodating future demand appear to be scarce.     

Job Search and the Measurement of Unemployment in South Africa

We interrogate the distinction between searching and non‐searching unemployment in South Africa using data from the first national panel survey that tracks the individual. In particular, we test whether the non‐searching unemployed display a weaker commitment to the labour market than the searching unemployed, and we investigate what counts as search activity. We find that over the panel, the search status of the unemployed does not predict their subsequent employment status, a result that is robust also for subsamples that vary by age cohort, gender and location. Moreover, social networks are the most important job‐finding strategy of the employed. These findings challenge the exclusion of the non‐searching unemployed from the measure of “genuine” work seekers.     

German stagnation versus Swedish progression: gender wage gaps in comparison, 1960–2006

This article provides a comparative analysis of the development of the gender wage gap in West Germany and Sweden during the period 1960–2006. Despite the economic similarities including broad social safety nets, the gap has developed differently since 1960. This analysis accounts for micro- and macroeconomic factors and politics and concludes that norms and traditions penetrate institutional settings and ensnare Germany in a cultural trap with regard to gender equality. While Sweden has moved to a two-earner model, German society expects mothers to stay at home. The micro analysis shows that family concerns (e.g. marriage and motherhood) decrease female income in Germany to a far greater extent than do such factors in Sweden, which can be explained in part by deeply held social attitudes.     

浅谈开滦集团党建特点

介绍了开滦集团党的建设情况,从时代要求、与企业转型发展并进的精神、自身发展的现实3个方面进行了阐述。     

Comparing linear and nonlinear forecasts for stock returns

We compare the out-of-sample performance of monthly returns forecasts for two indices, namely the Dow Jones (DJ) and the Financial Times (FT) indices. A linear and a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) model are used to generate the out-of-sample competing forecasts for monthly returns. Stationary transformations of dividends and trading volume are considered as fundamental explanatory variables in the linear model and the input variables in the ANN model. The comparison of out-of-sample forecasts is done on the basis of forecast accuracy, using the Diebold and Mariano test [J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 13 (1995) 253.], and forecast encompassing, using the Clements and Hendry approach [J. Forecast. 5 (1998) 559.]. The results suggest that the out-of-sample ANN forecasts are significantly more accurate than linear forecasts of both indices. Furthermore, the ANN forecasts can explain the forecast errors of the linear model for both indices, while the linear model cannot explain the forecast errors of the ANN in either of the two indices. Overall, the results indicate that the inclusion of nonlinear terms in the relation between stock returns and fundamentals is important in out-of-sample forecasting. This conclusion is consistent with the view that the relation between stock returns and fundamentals is nonlinear.     

Petromin: The slow death of statist oil development in Saudi Arabia

The paper recounts the history of Saudi Arabia's first national oil company, Petromin, which was originally supposed to take the place of foreign-owned Aramco. As a result of Petromin's inefficiency and personal rivalries among the Saudi elite, however, Petromin was progressively relegated to the sidelines in favour of a gradually ‘Saudiised’ Aramco. As a result, the organisation of the Saudi oil sector today is very different from – and more efficient than – that of most other oil exporters in the developing world. The paper concludes with a tentative taxonomy of national oil companies, based on the circumstances of nationalisation.     

国资国企改革典型经验研究与启示——央企和部分省市典型经验对上海“十二五”期间国资国企改革的启示

国有经济和国有企业伴随着中国30年的改革开放，有了重大的变化。中央企业和各省市探索出许多国资国企改革方面值得总结和借鉴的宝贵经验。这些经验也将给上海市“十二五”期间进一步深化国资国企改革带来有益的启示，促进新一轮国资国企的改革发展。