供应链网络均衡模型

本文试图提出一种供应链网络的均衡模型。在这个模型里将充分考虑决策者的决策与他们各自独立的行为,并推导出供应链网络模型结构均衡的条件。     

Examining the influencing factors of intention to share accommodations in online hospitality exchange networks

ABSTRACT

CouchSurfing is a free social-network-based online hospitality exchange network, aptly representing a new sharing economy phenomenon. Based on social capital theory and previous literature, this study attempts to answer why hosts help strangers without any expected economic benefit within online hospitality exchange networks. An empirical study based on a Web survey conducted with CouchSurfing hosts reveals that the most identified antecedents (enjoy helping, shared narratives, desire to make friends, and reciprocity) are significantly related to hosts’ intention to share accommodations. Interestingly, the overshadowing effect of trust in CouchSurfing on the intention to share accommodations is also found.     

The impact of mood states and surprise cues on satisfaction

Mood effects have been studied in consumer behavior literature, but prior research investigating the joint impact of mood and surprise on satisfaction is scant. To bridge this gap, this study examines the relationship among these three constructs. We manipulated customers’ pre-consumption mood and provided surprise cues with hypothetical scenarios in a 2 by 2 factorial design in a restaurant setting. The results show that a positive surprise yields high satisfaction without a significant effect from customers’ pre-consumption mood. Conversely, with a negative surprise, customers in a negative pre-consumption mood indicate lower satisfaction than those in a positive mood.     

中国旅行社业发展现状与发展对策研究

在对中国旅行社20年来产业化、市场化、企业化和法制化进程做了系统梳理和综述的基础上，课题组重点研究了我国旅行社的产业现状和即将来临的机遇与挑战。最后，分别从产业政策、分工体系、企业制度、行业管理、经营策略、借鉴国外经验等6个方面对面向21世纪的中国旅行社业提出了具体的发展对策。     

基于LVQ神经网络的电信企业客户流失预测模型研究

随着人工智能的快速发展,人工神经网络被广泛地运用到分类预测领域。文章首先明确了客户流失的定义及其分类,然后分析了LVQ神经网络的基本原理,最后从研究样本的确定、预测变量的选取、模型的训练及评估三个方面构建了基于LVQ神经网络的电信企业客户流失预测模型,以期为电信企业客户流失预测模型的设计提供一定的借鉴意义。     

商业退回逆向物流网络优化模型研究

针对如何使商业退回成本最小,文中建立了一个数学模型,将商业退回逆向物流系统用一个由顾客、初始回收点和回收中心三类联结点以及它们之间的运输路线组成的网络来表示。为了验证模型的有效性,文中将模型应用于案例分析,最终根据模型求解结果为案例提供了一个具体的解决方案,对案例的求解结果进行了检验。     

黄土高原地区气候与北大西洋、低纬地区的遥相关

西风带是北大西洋气候区和东亚季风区的纽带,ENSO对西太平洋副高、东南季风和西南季风都有重要影响,因此,对黄土高原地区气候与北大西洋、ENSO区的关系做了进一步的分析,建立了神经网络模型,其模拟值与真实值趋势一致,误差较小,为气候预测的估算提供了新的思路。     

Opinion dynamics and wisdom under conformity

We study a dynamic model of opinion formation in social networks. In our model, boundedly rational agents update opinions by averaging over their neighbors’ expressed opinions, but may misrepresent their own opinion by conforming or counter-conforming with their neighbors. We show that an agent׳s social influence on the long-run group opinion is increasing in network centrality and decreasing in conformity. Concerning efficiency of information aggregation or “wisdom” of the society, it turns out that misrepresentation of opinions need not undermine wisdom, but may even enhance it. Given the network, we provide the optimal distribution of conformity levels in the society and show which agents should be more conforming in order to increase wisdom.