Evaluating the flipped classroom: A randomized controlled trial

Despite recent interest in flipped classrooms, rigorous research evaluating their effectiveness is sparse. In this study, the authors implement a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effect of a flipped classroom technique relative to a traditional lecture in an introductory undergraduate econometrics course. Random assignment enables the analysis to eliminate other potential explanations of performance differences between the flipped and traditional classrooms, while assignment of experimental condition by section and lesson enables improved statistical precision. The authors find that the flipped classroom increases scores on medium-term, high-stakes assessments by 0.16 standard deviation, with similar long-term effects for high-performing students. Estimated impacts are robust to alternative specifications accounting for possible spillover effects arising from the experimental design.     

Sport event attendance as a function of education: evidence from the UK

This article studies the role of education in the decision to attend sporting events. The overall objective is to verify whether more educated individuals are more likely to go to sports events than their less educated counterparts. If education socializes persons to focus on sports, it would then partially offset negative alternatives such as alcohol, drug abuse and unlawful behaviours, creating a positive externality. Sport events consumption is extensive, highlighting the potential economic importance of the sports-education externality. To establish the role of education in sport attendance, this article applies a probabilistic linear regression model to data from the UK. The econometric formulation associates sport event attendance in the left hand side with education in the right hand side, while controlling for the socioeconomic variables that are known to affect a consumer’s decision to go to a sport event: gender, age, income, employment status, children, marital status, and geographical location, among others. These findings add to a somewhat limited literature on both the effect of education on sports attendance and secondarily, on the impact of other socioeconomic variables on attendance.     

Methodological ignorance: A comment on field experiments and methodological intolerance

Glenn Harrison [Journal of Economic Methodology, 2013, 20, 103–117] discusses four related forms of methodological intolerance with respect to field experiments: field experiments should rely on some form of randomization, should be disconnected from theory, the concept of causality should only be defined in terms of observables, and the role of laboratory experiments is dismissed. As is often the case, the cause of intolerance is ignorance, as it is here. To acquire knowledge about potential influences, which we need for both the evaluation of internal and external validity of experimental results, we cannot do without theory. A purely empiricist (inductive) methodology will be unable to give us sufficient understanding of the validity of these results. An account of causality only based on directly observed things, is an account based on factual influences only. This account will be too restricted, because it will not deal with the unobserved potential influences, which we need – again – for the evaluation of the internal and external validity of the experimental results. Every investigation in a laboratory that is feasible regarding a specific potential influence may lead to deep knowledge. It is simply scientifically irrational to dismiss this kind of knowledge.     

Agricultural land-use dynamics: Assessing the relative importance of socioeconomic and biophysical drivers for more targeted policy

A detailed understanding of multiple human and environmental factors influencing land allocations among agricultural uses can facilitate more efficient and targeted land policy. To show this, we used a comprehensive dataset of socioeconomic, physiographic, and climatic indicators to investigate potential determinants of land-use in Australia’s intensive agricultural region during the period 1992–2010. We applied a seemingly unrelated regressions land-use shares spatial error model with random effects coupled with variance decomposition analysis to identify the statistical significance, direction and magnitude of observed associations between land-use and its drivers.Population: density, rainfall, equity ratio, and access to markets were the most influential policy-relevant land-use factors. Land allocations to cereals and livestock production were significantly influenced by spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature variability. Improved pastures, cereals, annual and perennial crops plantations were larger in regions with better access to markets. Increases in equity ratio (i.e., better financial position) were associated with larger land allocations to improved pastures and annual crops and smaller extensive grazing area. Marginal associations were detected between land-use and output prices, and higher population density was associated with lower shares for all high value agricultural land-uses. The results suggest that improved transportation infrastructure, zoning regulations, and mechanisms to reduce farm debt exposure and risks from climate variability could have significant impact on the configuration of the Australian agricultural landscape.     

FORECASTING REALIZED VOLATILITY WITH LINEAR AND NONLINEAR UNIVARIATE MODELS

Abstract In this paper, we consider a nonlinear model based on neural networks as well as linear models to forecast the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 futures. As a proxy for daily volatility, we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator of the integrated volatility that is computed from high‐frequency intraday returns. We also consider a simple algorithm based on bagging (bootstrap aggregation) in order to specify the models analysed in this paper.     

中国省域建筑业发展差异的空间计量经济分析

基于2005年～2007年我国31个省（直辖市）建筑业的面板数据,利用空间经济计量方法对其进行了系统的分析,揭示了我国省域建筑业之间的强空间相关性和空间异质性,分析结果表明：为了更加深入地理解我国建筑业对经济增长的影响,必须强调地域空间因素的重要性,这样既有助于明确建筑业对经济增长的空间影响,同时也为国家协调区域经济发展、制定相应的区域发展政策提供相应理论依据。     

The real exchange rate and economic growth: are developing countries different?

Recent research has found a positive relationship between real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation and economic growth. Different rationales for this association have been offered, but they all imply that the mechanisms involved should be stronger in developing countries. Rodrik (2008 Rodrik, D. 2008. The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2: 365–412.  [Google Scholar]) explicitly analyzed and found evidence that the RER–growth relationship is more prevalent in developing countries. We show that his finding is sensitive to the criterion used to divide the sample between developed and developing countries. Using alternative classification criteria and empirical strategies to evaluate the existence of asymmetries between groups of countries, we find that the effect of currency undervaluation on growth is indeed larger and more robust for developing economies. However, the relationship between RER undervaluation and per capita GDP is non-monotonic, and is limited largely to the least developed and richest countries. This discontinuity constitutes a puzzle that calls for closer analysis.     

从2003年诺贝尔经济学奖看计量经济学

在经济研究中,如何从变化的数据中发现经济规律,解释经济现象,验证经济理论,显得越来越重要。以经济理论为基础,以实际经济数据为依据,用数学和统计学方法来研究经济问题的计量经济学与这种需求不谋而合。从近几年计量经济学的研究成果频繁获得诺贝尔奖来看,说明诺贝经济学奖不仅注重理论上的研究,同样也关注技术上的突破,关注经济理论的实际应用性。     

政府协调合作与宏观经济振兴的内在关系分析

为了探寻宏观经济振兴中府际协作的作用，从理论基础及国内外研究现状入手，并基于博弈理论验证出政府的协作会为经济发展带来更大的价值。通过建立一种计量经济学回归模型，判定政府协作关系、社会资本投入等解释变量及其他一系列控制变量与区域经济增长率之间的内在相关性，统计分析结果表明，政府协调合作与经济发展间具有高度的相关性。实证研究的统计数据结果也显示出，地方政府间协调度指标值的提高能够带来更快的经济增长率，也能够带动整个市场范围内固定资产投资总额和财政收入的增长。     

Internet Access and Farm Household Income – Empirical Evidence using a Semi‐parametric Assessment in Taiwan

There is considerable literature examining individuals’ behaviour with respect to Internet use, but less attention is paid to farm household use of the Internet. Among the few studies on farm households, the emphasis is on the correlation between socioeconomic factors and the adoption of the Internet. Thus, relatively little is known about the association between Internet use and farm household well‐being. In an effort to fill this void, this paper investigates Internet access among farm households and examines the effects of Internet access on farm household income. Given the observed income gap between Internet users and non‐users, we then investigate the extent to which socioeconomic factors may be associated with this income gap. Using a nationwide survey of farm households in Taiwan, a novel econometric model is proposed and estimated employing a semi‐parametric technique. Our results support the conclusion that Internet use improves farm household income. Most of the income gap between adopters and non‐adopters can be explained by the differences in the return of the socioeconomic factors.