关于转变经济增长方式的几个问题

本文对当前我国学术界关于粗放与集约概念的由来及转变经济增长方式含义的几种观点作了简要的评析;对如何正确理解实现经济增长方式的转变提出了自己的看法;论述了转变经济增长方式的必要性和转变的数量界限;阐明了顺利实现经济增长方式转变应处理的几个方面的关系。     

The Economic Rise of China: Challenges and Opportunities for ASEAN

This paper looks at the economic rise of China and its impacts and implications for the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. The issues of complementarities and competitiveness of ASEAN and China in trade and investment and the opportunities and challenges arising from China's emergence and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area are discussed. The message from China's emergence is clear and strong; it is that size does matter. To increase ASEAN competitiveness, the paper highlights the need for a deeper and more rapid economic integration of ASEAN in order to exploit scale economies. The important role of Japan in this process is highlighted. Finally the issue of ASEAN economic diversity is discussed. It is suggested that while ASEAN is fairly diverse, this should not be a critical stumbling block to a more rapid economic integration of ASEAN.     

From the Tribal to the Open Society: The Role of Medieval Craft Guilds in the Emergence of a Market Order

The emergence of a legally constituted State in 16th century western societies represents the final lap of a process extending the sphere of the indivudal freedoms necessary for the emergence of the market order. A peculiar stage of this process came in the form of guilds. They materialised into a need for emancipation from the values of the archaic society and became the keepers of a peace and a justice on the market by ensuring the respect of new rules of conduct (1). This analysis of the behaviour of craft guilds will illustrate the question of the possibility of rational economic activity in medieval society (2).     

生态经济理论与经济体制改革

经济体制改革的理论基础不仅仅是社会主义市场经济理论,生态经济理论也是其中之一,这是由生态经济理论原则及特点所决定了的。同时,改革的目标是建立社会主义市场经济体制,在新体制的建立过程中,也必须注意实现生态经济协调的几个问题。     

EVA(经济价值增值):优点、缺陷与应用的探讨

作为一种度量公司绩效的新指标,EVA与传统指标相比具有许多优越性。然而,EVA仍有其自身的局限性,这就影响了它的应用。我们认为将其作为唯一的绩效评价指标是不恰当的,所以我们把它安置在一套平衡指标集中,以期使其获得最好的利用。     

北京先行经济指数研究

"北京先行经济指数"是我国第一个区域性先行经济指数,在试运行中取得了很好的效果。该指数以我国现行统计制度为基础,紧密结合北京实际,通过构造基准循环、"提取"先行指标、编制指数、返回检验等步骤,对北京先行经济指数的科学性和有效性进行了分析。先行指数超前GDP增速变化4～8个月这一重要研究结论在返回检验中得到了很好的证实。     

新一轮税制改革面临的挑战与现实选择

中国经济正面临着知识经济、经济全球化、可持续发展、通货紧缩、追求收入公平分配等方面的严峻挑战。制定税收制度必须以经济转轨时期的经济改革为背景,以广税基、低税率、少优惠、强征管为目标,进一步深化我国的税制改革。     

Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns

A great deal of research has focused on the links between stock and bond market returns and macroeconomic events such as fluctuations in interest rates, inflation rates, and industrial production. Although the comovements of real estate and other asset prices suggests that these same systematic risk factors are likely to be priced in real estate markets, no study has formally addressed this issue. This study identifies the growth rate in real per capita consumption, the real T-bill rate, the term structure of interest rates, and unexpected inflation as fundamental drivers or state variables that systematically affect real estate returns. The finding of a consistently significant risk premium on consumption has important ramifications for the vast literature that has examined the (risk-adjusted) performance of real estate, for it suggests that prior findings of significant abnormal returns (either positive or negative) that have ignored consumption are potentially biased by an omitted variables problem. The results also have important implications for dynamic asset allocation strategies that involve the predictability of real estate returns using economic data.     

经济增长在险水平、条件波动性与经济增长态势研究

经济增长在险水平（GaR）和条件标准差（CSD）能够有效地度量国家经济风险波动的单向性和双向性。利用动态时窗和条件异方差模型，我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济周期波动密切相关，目前的国家风险状态已经体现出明显的稳定性。利用协整关系检验，我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济增长水平之间存在正相关的长期均衡关系，因此采取积极经济政策的“反周期”干预，所诱发的适度经济波动将有且经济快速稳定增长。     

Inequality, Crime and Economic Growth. A Classical Argument for Distributional Equality

This paper studies the dynamic general-equilibrium interactions between inequality, crime and economic growth by embedding the rational choice-theoretical approach to criminal behavior in a heterogeneous-agents endogenous-growth OLG model. Based on their respective opportunity costs, individuals choose to specialize in either legal or criminal activities. While legal households contribute to aggregate goods supply over time by either working or building human capital, criminals make a living by expropriating legal citizens of part of the latter's income. An increase in inequality lowers the economy's growth rate and possesses negative welfare effects for all agents with endowments equal to or above average and for agents with endowment below average that are born sufficiently far in the future.