江苏区域产业结构比较与区域协调发展探讨

文章从产业结构水平、产业结构变动、产业结构效益三个方面对江苏省13个地级市的产业结构进行测度与分析,以期从产业结构的角度对区域经济增长的差异性进行解释,并从产业结构的角度对江苏省区域经济协调发展提出政策建议     

边境贫困县特色产业扶贫的经济效应研究*——以阿合奇县沙棘产业为例

［目的］在推进扶贫攻坚的战略背景下,产业扶贫成为贫困地区脱贫的根本途径,探究特色产业在产业结构调整中扮演的角色及其在扶贫中产生的经济效应,为新时代条件下边境贫困地区精准扶贫模式的优化提供理论支撑。［方法］以新疆边境贫困县阿合奇县为例,将该县的GDP、农牧民人均纯收入、财政收入、社会消费品零售总额、三大产业产值作为变量指标,通过构建灰色关联模型,分析研究当地的沙棘产业扶贫所产生的经济效应。［结果］阿合奇县沙棘产值与GDP、农牧民人均纯收入、财政收入、社会消费品零售总额的关联度分别为0581、0708、0659、0622; 沙棘产值与一、二、三产业的关联度分别为0614、0742、0640。［结论］特色产业扶贫要锁定优势特色产业,精准定位沙棘产业发展方向,建设沙棘产业品牌,充分发挥沙棘产业的带动作用,强化沙棘产业与第三产业的联系,优化沙棘产业布局,完善各方利益联结机制,进一步强化特色产业与贫困人口的联系。     

中国煤矿安全规制效果实证研究

本文在煤矿安全规制效果理论分析基础上,采用VAR模型实证检验中国煤矿安全规制效果。研究结果表明,中国煤矿安全规制在长期是有效的,体现在长期可以显著降低煤炭百万吨死亡率。但是,这种有效性在短期内会被煤矿工人的逆向行为所抵消,从而意味着规制机构在煤矿安全规制中面临短期效果和长期效果之间的权衡。实证分析还发现,煤炭产量增加在短期内会降低煤炭百万吨死亡率,而在长期则会提高煤炭百万吨死亡率。在上述实证结果基础上,本文提出了改善中国煤矿安全规制效果的政策建议。     

Ritual legitimation, de-coupling and the budgetary process: managing organizational hypocrisies in a multinational company

The study of participation in the budgetary cycle has formed a prominent part of the research literature concerned with the budgetary process. More recently there has emerged a body of literature concerned with exploring the political and symbolic nature of the budgetary process. The paper reports upon the outcomes of an empirical study of the introduction of `budgetary participation' in a division of a European subsidiary of a large North American car manufacturer. We detail the long process of consultation and negotiation within the subsidiary, and between it and the European Headquarters. The study provides a revealing instance of the roles of formal budget participation as a ritual of control and legitimation without the substantive involvement of middle managers and suggested to us the introduction of de-coupling and organizational hypocrisy alongside the introduction of budget participation. The study pays close attention to the contingent effects of the wider political context of the division and the relationships between the division, its organizational context and organizational environment, and how this context played upon the budgetary process in the division. The outcomes that we analyse at `Delta' reflect the de-coupling strategies and organizational hypocrisies commonly found in public sector organizations. In this wider setting the corporation persists with the ritual of `tight' budget negotiation and target setting and apparent underachievement in performance. Yet we conclude that the complex technological and political context to the formation and siting of Delta continued and may continue to support its existence.$g0     

全球失衡背景下中国外部财富分析

外部财富动态为理解全球失衡及其治理问题提供了新标准和新视角。与我国的经常账户持续盈余相对应,我国外部财富由负转正,但是外部财富的价值效应为负。运用外部财富的一个分析框架,对我国外部财富价值效应影响因素的分析表明,我国外部头寸与人民币名义汇率和实际利率存在显著的相互关系,与人民币实际有效汇率和美元实际利率则没有显著的相互关系。外部财富动态分析对于我国内外平衡的宏观经济政策选择具有丰富的政策含义。     

新形势下农业科研院所纪检监察工作的认识与思考

[目的]通过总结地膜覆盖农田相关研究现状及研究趋势,以期为地膜制造、生产、使用、回收全过程的科学规划管理提供参考依据.[方法]文章为了客观全面掌握国内外地膜覆盖技术研究现状,明确研究重点、前沿问题和热点问题,利用文献计量法,借助CNKI和Web of Science文献库,分析近20年国内外地膜覆盖技术研究进展.主要对地膜覆盖栽培技术的积极作用、负面影响、综合评价研究以及地膜覆盖农田遥感监测等4个方面进行分析.[结果]目前国内外地膜覆盖农田研究主要有两方面,即地膜覆盖栽培技术对农作物增产积极效益研究和地膜覆盖对大气环境(如二氧化碳、甲烷、一氧化二氮等温室气体排放)和土壤环境的影响以及残留地膜的影响等负面效应研究.然而,对地膜覆盖技术综合影响研究、地膜农田时空格局及变化研究相对较少.[结论]地膜覆盖技术综合效益评估研究、地膜农田时空格局及变化研究,以及地膜覆盖农田定量遥感研究应受到更多关注.     

Stress-testing US bank holding companies: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach

We propose an econometric framework for estimating capital shortfalls of bank holding companies (BHCs) under pre-specified macroeconomic scenarios. To capture the nonlinear dynamics of bank losses and revenues during periods of financial stress, we use a fixed effects quantile autoregressive (FE-QAR) model with exogenous macroeconomic covariates, an approach that delivers a superior out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to the standard linear framework. According to the out-of-sample forecasts, the realized net charge-offs during the 2007–09 crisis fall within the multi-step-ahead density forecasts implied by the FE-QAR model, but are frequently outside the density forecasts generated using the corresponding linear model. This difference reflects the fact that the linear specification substantially underestimates loan losses, especially for real estate loan portfolios. Employing the macroeconomic stress scenario used in CCAR 2012, we use the density forecasts generated by the FE-QAR model to simulate capital shortfalls for a panel of large BHCs. For almost all institutions in the sample, the FE-QAR model generates capital shortfalls that are considerably higher than those implied by its linear counterpart, which suggests that our approach has the potential to detect emerging vulnerabilities in the financial system.     

News framing effects on destination risk perception

News coverage of hazards is often commented to be of critical importance to individuals' perceived risk associated with tourist destinations. Despite the significance of this issue to the global tourism industry, the link between portrayals of hazards and audience reception is rarely studied in this context. This study adopted the framing theory to evaluate media effect on tourists' perceived risk of portrayals of terrorism and political instability incidents. This involved a survey-embedded experiment which manipulated potential elements of a news report concerning a hazard. The content of fictitious articles used in the experiment was created on the basis of extant risk perception theories. Results revealed that the use of risk amplifying frame and risk attenuating frame result in higher and lower ratings of risk respectively. Moreover, tourist psychographic characteristics were found to moderate the influence of news frames on perceived risk. Implications for tourism destination managers and marketers were discussed.     

Ethical behavior and trustworthiness in the stock market-growth nexus

While formal institutional quality has been used to explain the finance-growth nexus, the role of social capital has not been fully addressed. The proposition of “better finance, more growth” is important amidst concerns over the erosion of ethics and trust in finance in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. Using threshold estimation technique, this study examines whether the growth effect of stock market development differs according to the distinct levels of ethical behavior and trustworthiness in a cross-section of 73 jurisdictions during the post-crisis period. The results demonstrate that the impact of stock market liquidity on gross domestic product (GDP) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth is positive and significant only where there is high level of ethical behavior in firms. Similar effect is discerned in the case of strong trustworthiness and confidence. However, there is mixed evidence when formal institutional quality in the form of regulation and supervision of securities exchanges is considered. In terms of policy implications, this study upholds the “better finance, more growth” proposition and contributes to the identification of thresholds above which ethical behavior and trustworthiness can influence positively the relations between stock market development and macroeconomic performance.