经济水平对生育意愿的影响分析——一项经验研究:基于621份调查问卷的数据

随着社会经济的发展,我国城乡居民的生育意愿相对于传统的生育意愿有了明显的变化,这种变化是包括经济水平等多种因素共同作用的结果。作为一项经验研究,对621份调查问卷作了数据分析。经济水平对生育意愿有一定的影响,但影响有限;且同时表现出一定的滞后性。这和中国受浓重传统文化影响且目前社会养老制度不健全等因素有相当大的关系。     

Evaluating the economic impacts of crop yield change and sea level rise induced by climate change on Taiwan's agricultural sector

This article investigates the effects of sea level rise and climate change induced crop yield alterations on Taiwan as well as possible adaptation strategies. For sea level rise of up to 5 meters, as much as 4.9% of total acreage and 16% of rice acreage would be lost. The empirical findings show that the sea level damages range from NT$ 0.84 to 4.10 billion while crop yield losses range from NT$ 1.79 to 2.55 billion. We investigate alternative adaptation strategies finding crop yield technological progress and tariff reduction could significantly mitigate these effects.     

沟域经济发展对山西山区村域经济发展的启示——以太原为例

沟域经济是北京山区发展中提出的一种经济发展模式。以太原市为例,在分析其山区村域经济发展现状的基础上,借鉴北京沟域经济发展经验提出太原山区村域经济发展面临的主要问题及解决对策,以期为山西山区村域经济发展提供借鉴与参考。     

基于系统动力学的中国通货膨胀形成机制研究

运用系统动力学方法和理论对我国通货膨胀的形成机制进行分析,提出通货膨胀系统是由经济发展子系统、存贷款子系统、财政收支子系统、国际收支子系统构成的复杂多重反馈系统,运用系统动力学Vensim软件,建立了通货膨胀系统的因果反馈模型,揭示了通货膨胀系统形成机制的主导因素,进而建立通货膨胀系统的结构流图和方程,对通货膨胀系统动态定量分析,通过调整相关参数进行仿真和预测,并在此基础上提出相关政策建议。     

商业养老保险的保障水平研究

一般认为商业性养老保险具有较高的养老保障水平,有其他养老保障体系所不具备的优势。但站在投保者个人理财的角度来看,我国现行商业养老保险的投入产出比较低,相对养老保障水平较低,投保者缴纳的养老保险费及其按银行定期存款利率计算的投资收益不足一半被用于被保险人的养老,这与保险公司支付给保险销售人员的佣金有着重要关系。     

受教育水平对新生代农民工收支均衡的影响

良好的经济条件是新生代农民工有效城市化最核心的因素,但目前新生代农民工的收支均衡状况并不乐观,不利于其社会融入和城市化。基于调研数据,笔者采用OLS模型对调研资料进行回归分析,发现受教育水平正向影响新生代农民工的收支均衡水平,受教育水平越高,月经济结余越多,越有利于其城市融入。因此,应通过完善教育政策、合理分配教育资源等来提高新生代农民工的受教育水平,以加快其城市融入进程。     

我国适度外汇储备规模的动态路径分析

本文运用比率分析法、成本收益法以及修正后的Agarwal模型对我国的适度外汇储备规模进行了测度。测算表明,在1994—2006年间,中国的实际外汇储备规模处于适度水平,而在2007—2011年,实际外汇储备规模则逐渐偏离适度外汇储备规模。然而,通过运用matlab软件的高斯滤波法对实际外汇储备规模处理的结果则较为接近适度外汇储备规模。虽然实际外汇储备规模略为高于适度外汇储备规模,但是排除一些偶然的扰动因素之后,中国的实际外汇储备规模是处于适度水平的。最后,本文运用matlab软件里的dploy函数对外汇储备规模进行了预测,结果表明,从2012到2014年,中国的实际外汇储备规模将会逐渐达到适度水平。     

Designing a reverse logistics network for optimal collection, recovery and quality-based product-mix planning

This study proposes an integrated, reverse logistics supply chain planning process with modular product design that produces and markets products at different quality levels. A mixed integer programming (MIP) model formulates the overall planning process required to maximize profit by considering the collection of returned products, the recovery of modules and the proportion of the product mix at different quality levels. This paper proposes the collection of returnables (end-of life, defective, product under warranty) through retail outlets combined with the recovery of modules from the collected products using a network of recovery service providers. The proposed modular product design approach would create a design criterion that provides an improved recovery process at a lower cost. This study uses a total supply chain view that considers the production, transportation and distribution of products to customers, while a numerical problem illustrates the applicability of the models.     

How value and trust influence loyalty in wireless telecommunications industry

Despite making significant investments in enhancing the customer service experience, long-term customer loyalty remains an elusive dream for many service providers. Particularly in the telecommunications industry, switching providers even from within continuous contract relationships is easy and companies struggle to retain their customers. Trust and value are considered cornerstones of long-term relationships, so it is perhaps surprising that previous research on how relationship age and usage level actually affect value, trust and loyalty is inconclusive. The current research is set in the telecommunications services field and draws on a large-scale survey undertaken in Finland. The findings support the contention that perceived value relates positively to loyalty, and that trust mediates that relationship. Surprisingly, in the telecommunications industry, increasing relationship age and usage level strengthen neither value and loyalty nor the links between trust and loyalty. The results may be explained by the unique characteristics of the highly competitive mobile telecommunications sector, and confirm the view that loyalty does not pay without strategies that value long-term customers and thereby build trust with new customers.     

Consumers as time travellers: the moderating effects of risk perception and construal level on consumers’ responses to temporal framing

Abstract

This study investigated the conditions under which temporal framing is more effective in explaining consumers’ responses to ads. Two experiments were conducted with a 2 (temporal framing: near-future vs. distant-future benefits) × 2 (perceived risk: high vs. low) × 2 (construal level: high vs. low) between-subjects factorial design. In Experiment 1, the two-way interaction effect of temporal framing and perceived risk on ad attitudes and purchase intention was found, such that the near-future benefit frame generated more favourable responses to the ad under the high-risk condition. Incorporating construal level theory, the three-way interaction effect was found, with the temporal framing?×?perceived risk interaction appearing more pronounced for low construal consumers only. Experiment 1 also discovered that information diagnosticity mediated the interaction effect of temporal framing and perceived risk on ad attitudes and purchase intention and this mediating process appeared stronger for low construal consumers. Experiment 2 replicated the two-way and three-way interaction effects on purchase intention, providing evidence of the validity of the findings. Theoretical and managerial implications were discussed for researchers and practitioners.