加强企业统计基础工作初探

文章提出规范和加强企业统计基础工作是确保源头数据质量的需要,并通过对企业统计工作的现状、存在的问题、统计基础工作薄弱的原因进行分析,提出了加强和改进企业统计工作的几点建议。     

应用型本科院校教师、学生、服务“三位一体”的转型新机制研究--以安康学院数学与统计系统计学专业实践教学为例

应用型本科院校作为中国高等教育发展的时代产物,占全国高等教育人才培养的半壁江山,对中国高等教育人才培养影响极大。随着应用型本科院校将逐步转型以职业技术教育为核心,以培养技术技能型人才为内涵的发展之路,应用型本科院校必须过好转型三关：突破专业教师转型的困惑关;创新应用型人才协调发展的成长关;构建社会服务互动机制的双赢关。     

Cultural legitimacy and framing struggles in innovation journeys: A cultural-performative perspective and a case study of Dutch nuclear energy (1945-1986)

This article contributes to the field of innovation studies by addressing the role of cultural legitimacy in technical innovation journeys. The article develops a new perspective that connects insights from discourse theory, interpretive approaches to culture, cultural sociology and social movement theory. In contrast to functionalist and structuralist approaches (which tend to conceptualize culture in a top-down deterministic manner), our cultural-performative perspective emphasizes agency, collective sensemaking and framing struggles. Cultural change is a contested process, in which various groups perform on public stages to influence the attitudes and opinions of relevant audiences who provide financial resources, protection or support relevant for innovation journeys. We demonstrate the usefulness of this perspective with a longitudinal case study of nuclear energy in the Netherlands (1945-1986), which encompasses both the creation of legitimacy in the 1950s and 1960s, and its contestation by an anti-nuclear movement in the 1970s, which halted the innovation journey.     

我国可再生能源发展的经济学分析——基于租金理论视角

在常规能源资源逐步耗竭,生态环境日益恶化的背景下,可再生能源逐步替代常规能源成为大势所趋.但是目前我国可再生能源不仅没有与经济同步发展,甚至出现了常规能源对可再生能源的反替代.试图通过租金理论,分析我国可再生能源发展滞后的经济学原因,从而为我国加快发展可再生能源提出一些有针对性的政策建议.     

Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.     

Economic Potential of Biomass Based Fuels for Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation

Use of biofuels diminishes fossil fuelcombustion thereby also reducing net greenhousegas emissions. However, subsidies are neededto make agricultural biofuel productioneconomically feasible. To explore the economicpotential of biofuels in a greenhouse gasmitigation market, we incorporate data onproduction and biofuel processing for thedesignated energy crops switchgrass, hybridpoplar, and willow in an U.S. AgriculturalSector Model along with data on traditionalcrop-livestock production and processing, andafforestation of cropland. Net emissioncoefficients on all included agriculturalpractices are estimated through crop growthsimulation models or taken from the literature. Potential emission mitigation policies ormarkets are simulated via hypothetical carbonprices. At each carbon price level, theAgricultural Sector Model computes the newmarket equilibrium, revealing agriculturalcommodity prices, regionally specificproduction, input use, and welfare levels,environmental impacts, and adoption ofalternative management practices such asbiofuel production. Results indicate no rolefor biofuels below carbon prices of $40 perton of carbon equivalent. At these incentivelevels, emission reductions via reduced soiltillage and afforestation are more costefficient. For carbon prices above $70,biofuels dominate all other agriculturalmitigation strategies.     

Subsampling the distribution of diverging statistics with applications to finance

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution of statistics diverging at either known or unknown rates when the underlying time series is strictly stationary and strong mixing. Based on our results we provide a detailed discussion of how to estimate extreme order statistics with dependent data and present two applications to assessing financial market risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk and provides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizing Safety First portfolio selection.     

A Spatial Structural Decomposition Analysis of Chinese and Japanese Energy Demand: 1985–1990

This paper proposes a spatial structural decomposition analysis to measure the effects of the changes in intra- and inter-country linkages on the embodied energy demand in the concerned country. For the empirical analysis, we have used the China- Japan inter-country input–output tables for 1985 and 1990, expressed in constant prices of 1990. The empirical results reveal that (1) at least for the period between 1985 and 1990, the effects of the non-competitive input structural changes in China on the primary energy requirements of Japan were negligible, and (2) the contribution of the Japanese final demand shifts on the total change in Chinese primary energy demand was 40 times larger than that of the Chinese final demand shifts on the primary energy requirements of Japan. The Japanese policy makers should concentrate on the energy impacts of the changes in the domestic production structure rather than the changes in the Chinese production structure.     

国际商品价格波动与中国出口贸易的能源成本:一个实证分析

中国的出口贸易面临着国际市场能源价格快速上涨与工业品价格滞涨的双重压力。本文对2002—2007年中国出口商品所包含的能源成本进行的估算发现,以2002年不变价计算的能源成本在5年间增长了7.53倍。与此对应,能源成本在中国出口总额中所占的比例从2002年的8.4%上升到了2007年的21.2%。通过计算价格弹性发现,国际市场上能源相对价格的波动是引起我国能源成本率上升的主要因素。能源成本快速上升大大降低了我国出口商品的利润空间,表明我国的外贸质量在下降,这主要是由国际市场进出口价格体系以及我国出口商品结构不合理所造成的。     

石油企业节能减排动力机制探析

我国石油企业属于高能耗、高排放企业,在当前严峻的能源与社会经济环境形势下,有必要开展节能减排工作,走可持续发展道路。本文针对当前国内石油企业节能减排工作现状,在借鉴有关国内石油企业节能减排的理论与应用研究成果的基础上,分析了促使其进行积极有效节能减排的外部与内部动力因素,据此建立石油企业节能减排动力机制模型,阐述了其外部与内部动力机制模型中各动力因素的动力措施与相互之间的作用关系,为国内政府进行宏观调控和石油企业开展节能减排工作提供了一套系统的理论指导方法。