中国寿险需求实证分析

本文对国内外的寿险需求分析研究进行了简单综述，在此基础上抽取全目30省市1998—2003年的数据．采取面板数据模型就收入、通货膨胀、社会保障、银行利率、死亡率等寿险需求影响因素与保费收入相关性作了Granger因果性检验分析。     

Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

THE CHANGING VOLATILITY OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

During the last decade economic literature explored the presence of and reasons for what became known as “the great moderation” in the US and other G7 countries. “The great moderation” describes the decrease in economic volatility experienced in many of the G7 countries. This paper finds that in South Africa volatility is also not constant (it even finds that there are autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic effects present) and that volatility also decreased, particularly since 1994. Following the literature, the paper explores several reasons for this decrease and finds that smaller shocks, better monetary policy and improvements in the financial sector that place less liquidity constraints on individuals and allow them to manage their debt better are some of the main reasons for the reduction in the volatility of the South African economy. The literature on the G7 also suggests that better inventory management contributed to the lower volatility. However, this seems not to be true for South Africa.     

论服务性企业的内部信息流管理——从服务质量管理角度

不同类型的服务性企业，其产品的种类、顾客化程度、顾客参与性程度和劳动密集程度等特征各有不同，但由于服务产品的某些共同特性，形成了企业内部信息流管理的共同规律。也决定了服务性企业内部信息流管理的必然性和特殊性。企业的信息流管理是企业加强顾客和企业之间以及企业各部门之间沟通的重要基石。掌握信息流管理原理，应对顾客意见，保持信息的容易获得性、流转顺畅性、对改变的自适应性和信息反馈机制，对不断提高服务质量、提高顾客满意度至关重要。     

Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Oil Shocks

This paper offers a plausible explanation for the close link between oil prices and aggregate macroeconomic performance in the 1970s. Although this link has been well documented in the empirical literature, standard economic models are not able to replicate this link when actual oil prices are used to simulate the models. In particular, standard models cannot explain the depth of the recession in 1974–75 and the strong revival in 1976–78 based on the oil price movements in that period. This paper argues that a missing multiplier-accelerator mechanism from standard models may hold the key.     

井下作业企业实施品牌战略探讨

针对目前井下作业企业在品牌建设中普遍存在的问题进行深入分析，着重剖析了制约品牌建设的各种不利因素．提出了在现有条件下井下作业企业如何实施品牌战略的设想，指出井下作业企业要实现成为世界级的公司目标，就必须走向世界，积极参与国际竞争，进一步加强品牌战略。     

工业企业的清洁生产与产品生态设计初探

清洁生产是现代工业企业重要的生产模式,也是提高企业核心竞争力促进可持续发展的重要途径。企业要推行清洁生产必须根据产品生命周期搞好产品生态设计。本文主要对清洁生产起源、产品生态设计的准则及产品生命周期分析方法等进行了初步探讨。     

迎接知识经济时代 实现财务管理创新

随着知识经济的日益发展,尤其是我国改企建制工作的广泛推行和进一步深化,勘察设计企业为了能更好地应对市场竞争的挑战,其日常运作的各项工作就需要有所改进。而作为企业管理的核心,财务管理则需要密切配合企业改制工作的整体部署,进行相应的创新。本文结合勘察设计企业的实际情况,谈谈实现财务管理创新的几点思路。     

Learning across the life cycle: Experimentation and performance among the hollywood studio heads

Guided by notions from the literature on organizational learning, this paper investigates how product line experimentation and organizational performance change across the careers of top managers. Its subjects are the studio heads who ran all the major Hollywood film studios from 1936 to 1965. The study found first, that product line experimentation declines over the course of executive tenures; second, that there is an inverse U‐shaped relationship between top executive tenure and an organization's financial performance; and third, that product line experimentation is more likely to benefit financial performance late in top executives' tenures. These findings are consistent with a three‐stage ‘executive life cycle’. During the early years of their tenures, top managers experiment intensively with their product lines to learn about their business; later on their accumulated knowledge allows them to reduce experimentation and increase performance; finally, in their last years, executives reduce experimentation still further, and performance declines. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

推进西部大开发亟待全面深化对内开放

要实现西部大开发的伟大战略构想,改变西部经济落后面貌,缩小东西部差距最终实现西部地区的经济现代化,市场化和国际化,亟待全面深化对内开放,打破地区封锁,建立统一开放竞争有序的国内大市场,优化资源配置,调整产业结构,发挥区域优势,东西部进行合理分工,增强企业竞争力,使西部的发展融入全国全球的经济体系中.