Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx

We extend neural basis expansion analysis (NBEATS) to incorporate exogenous factors. The resulting method, called NBEATSx, improves on a well-performing deep learning model, extending its capabilities by including exogenous variables and allowing it to integrate multiple sources of useful information. To showcase the utility of the NBEATSx model, we conduct a comprehensive study of its application to electricity price forecasting tasks across a broad range of years and markets. We observe state-of-the-art performance, significantly improving the forecast accuracy by nearly 20% over the original NBEATS model, and by up to 5% over other well-established statistical and machine learning methods specialized for these tasks. Additionally, the proposed neural network has an interpretable configuration that can structurally decompose time series, visualizing the relative impact of trend and seasonal components and revealing the modeled processes’ interactions with exogenous factors. To assist related work, we made the code available in a dedicated repository.     

多归属纵向差异化双边市场下竞争均衡

双边市场作为产业组织理论研究的热点问题,涉及平台纵向差异化的研究还很少,本文依照现实中普遍存在的双边的多归属和平台之间差异化的情况,构造了网络外部性参数不对称的多归属差异化Hoteling模型,并考察了新均衡下双边平台的定价、市场势力和利润情况。我们发现,单归属均衡受平台质量差别程度影响,多归属均衡受相异平台质量影响较大;网络外部性参数的不对称是双边市场与单边市场均衡差别的主要原因;其次与单归属均衡结果相比,多归属差异化均衡时拉大了两平台间上下游定价、市场份额和利润差额。     

THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC REGULATION IN THE ISTANBUL TAXICAB MARKET

This paper discusses the regulation of the Istanbul taxicab market and its consequences. While price and entry regulations are common to many taxi markets, there are significant differences in their institutional frameworks. We examine the problems of the Istanbul market and offer recommendations to improve its efficiency.     

Learning and stability of the Bayesian–Walrasian equilibrium

Under the Bayesian–Walrasian Equilibrium (BWE) (see Balder and Yannelis, 2009), agents form price estimates based on their own private information, and in terms of those prices they can formulate estimated budget sets. Then, based on his/her own private information, each agent maximizes interim expected utility subject to his/her own estimated budget set. From the imprecision due to the price estimation it follows that the resulting equilibrium allocation may not clear the markets for every state of nature, i.e., exact feasibility of allocations may not occur. This paper shows that if the economy is repeated from period to period and agents refine their private information by observing the past BWE, then in the limit all agents will obtain the same information and market clearing will be reached. The converse is also true. The analysis provides a new way of looking at the asymmetric equilibrium which has a statistical foundation.     

近代上海房地产市场波动的金融分析(1929～1935)

1929~1935年,上海房地产市场在短短的五六年间经历了暴涨和暴跌。文章通过对房地产市场的金融分析,发现导致上海房地产市场在短期内大起大落的主要原因是币值和物价的变化。由于近代币值和物价的变化,结果导致货币市场上流通量发生剧烈波动,并影响了房地产市场的投机需求,导致房地产市场大起大落。这也提醒人们在分析房地产市场价格时要注意币值及物价对供求关系的影响,注意甄别各种不同的需求及其比重。     

On a clear day you might see an environmental Kuznets curve

We shed some new light on the Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and show how it can be viewed as a particular form of equilibrium relationship, where technology and preference parameters determine the shape of the curve. In contrast to most of the literature on the EKC, we estimate a theoretically consistent model on long-run data (Swedish sulfur emission, covering the period 1900–2002). Furthermore, we test and date structural change. The model suggests four regimes, 1900–1918, 1919–1933, 1934–1967 and 1968–2002, generating four rather different patterns for pollution over time. The policy-conclusions are consonant with Pearce’s general view about the EKC: there is no theoretical presumption that it has an inverted U shape, nor should any country try to “grow out of the environmental problems” without analyzing the benefits and costs of so doing.     

简化一般均衡模型中一般均衡点的确定

经济学教材在讨论一般均衡的时候,往往以两个人、两种生产要素、两种产品这种最简单的社会作为研究对象,它们通常只阐述了一般均衡的存在,但都没有说明这种最简单的社会一般均衡点的确定即以此作为研究对象。     

基于理论价格法的广东省茂名市房地产泡沫研究

运用理论价格法从定量分析的角度对广东省茂名市房地产市场是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的程度进行研究。研究结果表明:茂名市房地产市场2008年基本无泡沫;2009—2011年这三年茂名市房地产市场存在泡沫,尤以2009年最为严重;2010年房地产市场过热;2011年泡沫程度有明显的上升的趋势。     

关于工程招投标价格控制的措施分析

工程建设是一项涉及到设计、施工、管理、采购等多方面内容的一项系统性很强的经营活动,其中两个非常重要的阶段就是设计和施工,本文将对建设工程中设计阶段的招投标价格控制措施进行分析探讨。     

交易效率、迂回生产与资本市场形成：超边际一般均衡分析

引入"里昂惕夫"生产技术,建立一个超边际-新兴古典一般均衡模型,分析交易效率对最终品的迂回生产结构的影响,以揭示资本市场形成的微观机制.研究显示,随着资本品和最终品的综合交易效率相对于生产者自用资本品的效率的充分改进,资本市场将出现在分工结构中,并对最终品市场产生促进作用;而资本品和最终品的交易效率对经济增长具有交互的正效应.从模型中得出的一项政策含义是:经济增长有赖于更大程度地改进资本市场和产品市场的交易效率.